417,000 cancers forecast for Fukushima contamination zone by 2061 / xpost

[flamingdem]

http://www.llrc.org/indexpage.htm

LOW LEVEL RADIATION CAMPAIGN

Friday 1st April 2011
417,000 cancers forecast for Fukushima 200 km contamination zone by 2061
Scientific Secretary of the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR), Professor Chris Busby, has released calculations of the cancer incidence to be expected in fallout areas of Japan. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and official Japanese web sites he has used two methods to estimate the numbers of cancer cases. He compares these results with estimates derived from ICRP modelling.

The "Tondel" Method is based on a conservative study by Martin Tondel in northern Sweden. This examined cancer incidence during 10 years after Chernobyl. It differentiated the varying levels of land contamination and found that the disease increased by 11% for each 100 kiloBecquerels of fallout per square metre of land surface. Professor Busby has applied this factor to the zone up to 100 km from the reactors, where IAEA has reported, on average, 600kBq per sq.m radioactivity. In the 3.3 million population of this 100 km zone a 66% increase over and above the pre-accident rate is predicted in 10 years. This implies 103,329 extra cancers due to the Fukushima exposures between 2012 and 2021.

Applying the "Tondel" method to the ring between 100 km and 200 km from Fukushima, population 7.8 million but lower concentrations of fallout, 120,894 extra cancers are to be expected by 2021.
Assuming permanent residence and no evacuation the total predicted yield according to the "Tondel" method is 224,223 in ten years. MORE AT LINK

(also in environment/energy)

[PSPS]

1. If they don't fall over dead immediately, it doesn't count.

At least that's the apparent standard promoted by the pro-nuke crowd here on DU.

[thereismore]

3. Can't prove the cancers were from Fukushima! Cancer is natural!

La la la la la, I can't hear you! :banghead:

[fascisthunter]

2. wow

[felix_numinous]

4. A part of me is very angry

that better evacuation has not taken place. This is a humanitarian tragedy.

[KittyWampus]

5. IMO, birth defects will be the even larger sorrow.

[TheWraith]

6. Hell, they're undershooting. It'll be a BILLION cancers!

There's no scientific evidence to prove either number, and a lot to DISprove such hysteria, but why let fact come into a discussion of reality?