I'm declaring the winner in Wisconsin Supreme Court race

[L. Coyote]

Early results indicate the Dems are winning.

In Columbia County, with 2/3 the votes compared to Walker in 2010, the Dem shift is 9%, in Chippewa 8% with 1/3 of votes in, In Barron 7% with 1/3 of votes.

The trend is showing, and it appears at this point that the Dems will win this one.

[L. Coyote]

1. 2010 Dem Percentage by County, Governors Race

2010 Dem Percentage by County, Governors Race


ADAMS 46%
ASHLAND 62%
BARRON 43%
BAYFIELD 58%
BROWN 42%
BUFFALO 45%
BURNETT 42%
CALUMET 38%
CHIPPEWA 41%
CLARK 37%
COLUMBIA 47%
CRAWFORD 51%
DANE 68%
DODGE 33%
DOOR 48%
DOUGLAS 57%
DUNN 44%
EAU CLAIRE 50%
FLORENCE 33%
FOND DU LAC 35%
FOREST 46%
GRANT 46%
GREEN 50%
GREEN LAKE 32%
IOWA 54%
IRON 46%
JACKSON 48%
JEFFERSON 38%
JUNEAU 42%
KENOSHA 48%
KEWAUNEE 41%
LA CROSSE 49%
LAFAYETTE 46%
LANGLADE 38%
LINCOLN 43%
MANITOWOC 39%
MARATHON 40%
MARINETTE 42%
MARQUETTE 40%
MENOMINEE 78%
MILWAUKEE 62%
MONROE 40%
OCONTO 39%
ONEIDA 43%
OUTAGAMIE 45%
OZAUKEE 31%
PEPIN 45%
PIERCE 45%
POLK 39%
PORTAGE 52%
PRICE 45%
RACINE 43%
RICHLAND 46%
ROCK 53%
RUSK 40%
SAUK 48%
SAWYER 41%
SHAWANO 38%
SHEBOYGAN 36%
ST. CROIX 37%
TAYLOR 35%
TREMPEALEAU 49%
VERNON 48%
VILAS 36%
WALWORTH 34%
WASHBURN 45%
WASHINGTON 24%
WAUKESHA 28%
WAUPACA 39%
WAUSHARA 38%
WINNEBAGO 44%
WOOD 43%
STATE 46%

[Dawson Leery]

2. It seems that in several rural counties where

Walker won by large margins, Prosser is winning by a few points, if that. That indicates a clear swing in those counties.

[lonestarnot]

3. Tee hee! Now get it on the snooze network.

[L. Coyote]

4. 1157/3630 precincts Prosser = 259,361 Kloppenburger = 256,929

Total 1157/3630 precincts
Prosser ======= 259,361
Kloppenburger = 256,929

[rhett o rick]

10. Thanks for the update. nm

[Fuzz]

5. Well, if true, you know the republicans are going to cry foul and claim there was cheating.

[L. Coyote]

6. BROWN Co. 2010 = 42.5% Dem, 2011 shift = 45.0%

all precincts reporting

[BeFree]

9. 2.5% shift?

That's all? After all that has been done, the pubbie still gets a majority there in Brown?
What's wrong with those people?
Or... one simply has to wonder how the votes were counted.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Polk county is split at this time. Last fall the county went for Walker by 23%.

[Hannah Bell]

26. you mean a lower percent voted dem this time?

[AtomicKitten]

7. TPM has it at 50-50 with 35% of the vote counted.

[L. Coyote]

8. GREEN Co. 49.8% shifts to 54.5%

all precincts

[L. Coyote]

11. 1403/3630 precincts - R = 320,751 vs. D = 301,978

1403/3630 precincts
R = 320,751
D = 301,978

[littlewolf]

was 50/50 now 51 (Prosser) 49 (J.Klop)

with 1327 reporting

[TheOther95Percent]

12. I agree

The rural counties send the votes in quicker. The race should not be this close with 1/3 of the precints reporting.

[Dawson Leery]

15. Note the swing in several rural counties away from the GOP.

In some cases, the counties have swung from Republican to Democrat. In others, the GOP's margin has been cut down significantly.

[L. Coyote]

14. ROCK Co. 52.5% shifts to 60.3%

64/87 precincts

[aquart]

16. Okay, you never give a baby gift before the baby is born

And you don't dare God to make a fool of you with an election result.

[L. Coyote]

18. I declared Gore the winner in Florida and e-mailed them the stats.

It is simple statistics, albeit I'm working on the fly here compared to my precision in Florida.

[Ellipsis]

23. I Would agree with that

No offense L. but there are too many many variables yet... but it does look good. I'm glad to see Winnebago tightening up.

Marathon needs to flop and Outgamie numbers need to come in. I'd like to see some numbers from Fondulac too. Then you make your call.


I do think they are bracing for a loss because conservative media is all ready posturing the expense outlay on the election ...no doubt as their excuse.

[Jackpine Radical]

17. There are no Dem candidates in this election--it's nonpartisan.

Now that I have picked the nit, I wanna thank you for this analysis. It looks quite interesting.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. I'd like to keep this thread kicked up until we know for sure. Thanks! n/t

[L. Coyote]

20. The big counties to watch, by percent of 2010 Governor's voting.

MILWAUKEE      15.782% - 61.6% Dem
DANE 	       10.194% - 68.0% Dem
WAUKESHA 	8.713% - 28.0% Dem
BROWN 	        4.091%
RACINE 	        3.369%
OUTAGAMIE 	3.020%
WINNEBAGO 	2.834%
WASHINGTON 	2.729%
ROCK 	        2.416%
MARATHON 	2.291%
KENOSHA 	2.268%
SHEBOYGAN 	2.169%
OZAUKEE 	2.008%

[cascadiance]

21. Note that we need to see an average of a 5% difference in polls to win I think...

The percentages we are comparing with is where the Dems had 46% of the vote against Walker. If we want that to be 51% instead of 46%, then we need to see all of these counties trending around 5% or better movement more towards the Dem side. I think we are seeing that, but its not just a simple matter of just doing better than the earlier election...

[L. Coyote]

22. 1793/3630 precincts - Prosser = 397,874 - 51% Kloppenburger = 381,580 - 49%

[toddwv]

24. 1877/3630 precincts reporting. Back to 50/50.

Prosser 411,891
Kloppenburg 409,291

[L. Coyote]

25. BARRON Co. 43.5% shifts to 50.1%

32/36 precincts, 0.718% of state votes

[rhett o rick]

27. R&K

[L. Coyote]

28. IOWA Co. 54.3% shifts to 62.2%

32/35 precincts, 0.405% of state votes

[toddwv]

29. Kloppenburg ahead in votes now!

P:436,673
K: 440,494

[L. Coyote]

30. KENOSHA Co. 47.6% shifts to 54.3%

97/99 precincts, 2.268% of state votes

[L. Coyote]

31. 2023/3630 precincts - Prosser = 436,673, Kloppenbuger = 440,494

About 40% of the 2010 votes now reporting.

877,167 -- 2,160,832

[Warpy]

32. I'm predicting no results tonight

and possibly a recount, no matter who wins.

I'm just appalled that there are that many stupid people in Wisconsin.

[L. Coyote]

33. VILAS Co. 35.8% shifts to 40.1%

15/15 precincts, 0.488% of state votes

[L. Coyote]

34. RICHLAND Co. 45.9% shifts to 54.7%

32/33 precincts, 0,289% of state votes.

[Better Believe It]

35. Precincts 2146/3630 Prosser 468,532, Kloppenburg 458,108

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Better Believe It]

38. Self-Delete

[L. Coyote]

36. PIERCE Co. 44.5% shifts to 55.5%

25/28 precincts, 0.616% of state votes

[Better Believe It]

37. Precincts 2312/3630 Prosser 504,717 , J. Kloppenburg 486,752

[L. Coyote]

39. OUTAGAMIE Co. 44.8% shifts to 44.5%

91/95 precincts, 3.02% of state votes in this county in 2010.

This is the first county to not have a large blue shift with this percent of precincts reporting.

[Better Believe It]

40. Precincts 2378/3630 D. Prosser 514,475, J. Kloppenburg 515,891

[L. Coyote]

41. BAYFIELD Co. 57.8% shifts to 66.8%

28/28 precincts, 0.335% of state

[L. Coyote]

42. DANE Co. 68.0% shifts to 73.1% w/ 182/248 precincts

10.194% of state votes in 2010.

[toddwv]

43. Pretty much dead even right now.

P:534,088
K:534,630

[L. Coyote]

44. 2509/3630 precincts - Prosser = 534,088 - Kloppenburger = 534,630

45.1 % of 2010 votes so far reported.

[toddwv]

45. I hope Prosser is wearing Depends under that robe of his...

Kloppenburg takes a slight lead...

[L. Coyote]

46. WINNEBAGO Co. 44.3% shifts to 47.9%

73/76 precincts, 2.834% of state

[L. Coyote]

47. 2667/3630 - Prosser = 559,445 - Kloppenburger = 566,357

[L. Coyote]

48. CHIPPEWA Co. 41.4% shifts to 51.3% === 10% anti-Walker shift

46/46 precincts, 0.979% of state

[L. Coyote]

49. CLARK Co. 36.6% shifts to 41.7%

64/64 precincts, 0.486% of state

[L. Coyote]

50. COLUMBIA Co. 46.8% shifts to 55.1%

39/39 precincts, 0.990% of state

[L. Coyote]

51. MONROE Co. 39.7% shifts to 51.0%

34/34 precincts, 0.606% of state

[L. Coyote]

52. 2962/3630 precincts - Prosser = 595,839 - Kloppenburger = 614,578

Expect this to jump when Milwaukie reports the remaining precincts, now at 433/486.

[L. Coyote]

53. Waukesha Co. will move this towards equal, Milwaukie Co. will tip the scale back.

Waukesha Co. might tip 20,000 votes to Prosser yet.

[L. Coyote]

54. LA CROSSE Co. 49.1% shifts to 58.9%

42/42 precincts, 1.947% of state

[L. Coyote]

55. 3254/3630 precincts - Prosser = 663,671 - Kloppenburger = 667,255

This is recount territory!

[L. Coyote]

56. FOND DU LAC Co. 34.6% shifts to 39.0%

77/77 precincts, 1.757% of state

[L. Coyote]

57. WALWORTH Co. 33.8% shifts to 38.6%

40/40 precincts, 1.625% of state

[L. Coyote]

58. DODGE Co. 32.6% shifts to 38.9%

55/55 precincts, 1.44% of state

[L. Coyote]

59. 3344/3630 precincts - Prosser = 686,541 - Kloppenburger = 686,057

Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting 81,255 vs. 29,332
This is 66% vote counted.

Dane Co. 243/248 precincts reporting 45,503 vs. 124,880

On edit, the number of precincts in Dane updated, but not the vote tally.
When Waukesha reports, Prosser swill be well ahead.

[L. Coyote]

60. 3435/3630 precincts - Prosser = 703,258 - Kloppenburger = 701,478

[L. Coyote]

61. WAUKESHA Co. 28.0% shifts down to 26.5%

Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting: 81,255 vs. 29,332

This is the one anomalous county at this point, with about a 8% difference compared to every other county in Wisconsin shifting blue 6% or more.

[L. Coyote]

62. The Republican stronghold is the last to report, with a very anomalous result so far.

O.K., I'm getting suspicious.

[in_cog_ni_to]

63. Stress headache here!

WTF is going on? How can so many people be so damn stupid? Have they not been paying attention to what's going on in their state?

[L. Coyote]

64. WAUKESHA Co. precinct count is updated, vote remains the same.

Looks like the AP or someone is doing a poor job of sychronizing updates of votes and precincts reporting. This has been messing up my algorithm. There won't be a bunch more votes tipping to Prosser in this county!

So, this election may go to absentee voters.

[Peacetrain]

65. Kiddo you are a trooper..been following your thread all night

:)

[L. Coyote]

66. 3528/3630 precincts - Prosser = 721,048 - Kloppenburger = 716,323

Outstanding precincts in Eau Claire Co
40/61 precincts:6,343 vs. 9,524 should net 1,000 votes.

Outstanding precincts in Marathon Co.
108/140 precincts: 16,368 vs. 14,032 difficult to predict, perhaps some loss.

Outstanding precincts in Milwaukee Co.
474/486 precincts: 95,129 vs. 125,090 perhaps some gain.

Outstanding precincts in SaukCo.
31/39 precincts: 6,166 vs. 7,625 ??

Outstanding precincts in Ashland Co.
22/28 precincts: 1,037 vs. 2,504 should net some votes.

[L. Coyote]

67. What is happening in Milwaukee? 61.6% Barrett, 56.4% Kloppenburger. This is an outlier.

The state-wide mean is a -3.45% shift from the Walker vote. On a county by county basis, there are two outliers, Milwaukie, the largest county, and tiny Menominee (14.84%).

Menominee	-14.84% (One precinct only)
Milwaukee	-5.20%  (15.2% of state votes)
Forest	        -2.17%
Ozaukee	        -1.83%
Outagamie	-1.53%
Waukesha	-1.46%

........

Columbia	8.27%
Wood	        8.46%
Richland	8.85%
Bayfield	8.97%
Sawyer	        9.12%
Ashland	        9.12%
Dunn	        9.66%
Iron	        9.71%
La Crosse	9.86%
Chippewa	9.94%
Juneau	        10.10%
Polk	        10.14%
Pierce	        10.23%
Eau Claire	10.33%
Grant	        10.53%
Monroe	        11.25%
Douglas	        12.18%
St. Croix	12.31%

No outliers on the other end of the sort.

[L. Coyote]

71. Wisconsin : Milwaukee voting machines =

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?ec=mixed&year=2008&statefips=55&countyfips=79

Standard Polling Place Equipment = Optical Scan

[L. Coyote]

73. Governor candidate Tom Barrett is from Milwaukee.

That may be a consideration to address.

[L. Coyote]

102. MAP graphic of county vote shifts:

[L. Coyote]

68. 3533/3630 precincts - Prosser = 724,859 - Kloppenburger = 723,175

[L. Coyote]

69. Five precincts just added 10,663 votes

5 precincts = Prosser +3811 - Kloppenburger +6852 = 10,663 votes added to the AP report.

[L. Coyote]

70. 3540/3630 precincts - Prosser = 727,041 - Kloppenburger = 725,143

7 precincts add Prosser +2,182, Kloppenburger +1,968 = 4,150

[L. Coyote]

72. 3596/3630 precincts - Prosser = 733,074 - Kloppenburger = 732,489

Ashland 6 precincts voting 70% Dem
Crawford 2 @ 59%
Dane 1 @ 73%
Dunn 2 @ 55%
Milwaukie 12 @ 57%
Sauk 8 @ 55%

Only 3 R precincts outstanding. The gap will close, then the absentee and early votes will decide this one.

[L. Coyote]

74. 3606/3630 precincts - Prosser = 736,878 - Kloppenburger = 736,043

Counties to report, precincts reported, vote tally

Ashland	22/28	  1,037 vs. 2,504

Dane 247/248	  48,627 vs. 133,513

Dunn	38/40	   3,790 vs. 4,649

Jefferson 40/41	   12,860 vs. 9,365

Juneau	28/29      2,337 vs. 2,546

Milwaukee 484/486  98,933 vs. 128,644

Sauk	31/39	   6,166 vs. 7,625

Taylor	29/30	   3,602 vs. 2,266

Note this sums to only 20 precincts left to report, while the AP indicates there are 24 left.
While the unusual results in Milwaukie County have thrown my prediction off considerably, this race will still narrow

[L. Coyote]

75. Vote Shift Chart, Barrett vote comparison with Kloppenburger

The big outlier is Milwaukee County, with 5% more votes for Prosser than for Walker.

[L. Coyote]

76. In Milwaukee, are absentee ballot processed in a central location for the entire county?

[L. Coyote]

77. 3612/3630 precincts - Prosser = 737,224 - Kloppenburger = 736,805 = margin shrinks 416 votes.

These are the AP numbers for precincts. Note, they carry an error (see above).

Big shift here, Prosser +346 vs. Kloppenburger +762

[demmiblue]

78. K&R n/t

[L. Coyote]

79. 3620 /3630 precincts - Prosser = 738,228 - Kloppenburger = 738,368 = +140 VICTORY

Eight precinct reports added, margin increases 559 votes to a lead for Kloppenburger of 140 votes.

[L. Coyote]

80. The remaining precincts and their current county results

County, Precincts reporting, Prosser, Kloppenburger

Dunn	        38/40	 3,790 	 4,649

Jefferson	40/41	12,860   9,365

Juneau	        28/29	 2,337   2,546

Milwaukee     484/486	98,933  128,644

Taylor	        29/30	 3,602    2,266

This one is apparently in the bag, as predicted, unless the unreported precincts do not follow their county trends!

[L. Coyote]

81. 3620 /3630 precincts - Prosser = 738,514 - Kloppenburger = 738,883 = +369 VICTORY

Five precincts reporting and the lead increased 229 votes.

[Stuart G]

82. K and R

[L. Coyote]

83. 3625 /3630 precincts - Prosser = 738,567 - Kloppenburger = 739,014 = +447 VICTORY

No new precincts reporting (per the AP tally = http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

78 votes gained

Remaining FIVE:

Jefferson 40/41 12,860 9,365

Juneau 28/29 2,337 2,546

Milwaukee 484/486 98,933 128,644

Taylor 29/30 3,602 2,266

[L. Coyote]

84. With no precincts added, the count shifted -136 vote margin to only a +311 victory

Tally is 739,070 to 739,381
Added is     503	367

[L. Coyote]

85. 3627/3630 precincts - Prosser = 739,317 - Kloppenburger = 739,557 = +240

Prosser +247 Kloppenburger +176 margin shifts -71

Jefferson and Milwaukee (2) precincts remaining.

[L. Coyote]

86. With no precincts added, the count shifted -16 vote margin to only a +224 victory

739,350 vs. 739,574 after 50 votes added.

They are likely verifying the numbers and updating.
I'm saving a copy of each tally I post.

[mvd]

87. How about absentee ballots? Are they in?

So glad she's in the lead!! :bounce:

[L. Coyote]

88. Yes, they are counted at the precincts, except Milwaukee, according to one post I read.

I'll have to verify that. And, perhaps more come in later??

On edit: Wisconsin
Absentee ballot counting begins on Election Day (Wisconsin Statutes 6-6.88)

=================
Wisconsin Absentee Voter Guide
http://www.longdistancevoter.org/wisconsin

Voted Absentee Ballot: Received by 8pm election day

Your request must be received by the clerk no later than 5pm on the Thursday before the election.

NOTE: If you apply for an absentee ballot in person at your municipal clerk's office, you must vote immediately, seal your ballot in the proper envelope, and return it to a member of the clerk's staff. No ballots may be taken from the clerk's office.

[Liberalator]

90. Local Wisc. Reporter tweeted all Milwaukee Reported

http://twitter.com/%40news3jessica

News3jessica

Just spoke to someone at Milw Co Election Commission, who says all their results are in, don't know why AP reports 2 precincts out.
12 minutes ago via TweetDeck

Bio News Reporter for WISC-TV in Madison, WI.

[L. Coyote]

91. That tweet is in reference to Dane County, I think. AP lacks the final three precincts still.

[wildcardcharlie]

92. No, that's in reference to Milwaukee

She states clearly.

It looks like Prosser will eek this out narrowly. 700 to 760 votes are uncounted in Jefferson. If he wins even 60 percent of those, he wins the race. With no votes left in Milwaukee, that would be all she wrote.

[L. Coyote]

105. Yes, turned out the AP misstated the number of precincts reporting.

They were all in.

[in_cog_ni_to]

89. Kick!

It's nice to have this info on ONE thread. :)

[L. Coyote]

93. The remaining precincts come from Milwaukee County's suburban town of West Allis,

The remaining precincts come from Milwaukee County (from the suburban town of West Allis, the Milwuakee Journal Sentinel reports)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/wisconsin-court-race-on-razors-edge-likely-going-to-recount.php?ref=fpb

Prosser campaign director Brian Nemoir says he's still trying to chase down some wards.

"While we are cautiously optimistic, it's safe to say that this campaign will transition from turning out votes to protecting the integrity and recounting the votes," he said.

[L. Coyote]

94. Update, AP says one precinct remaining and no more votes are added.

So, AP had a mistake in the precinct tally again. Now, the one remaining precinct is

Jefferson 40/41 precincts reporting Prosser 12,860 and Kloppenburger 9,365

and it is likely the majority of the votes in that precinct are reported.

[L. Coyote]

95. Extrapolating the likely outcome, Prosser gains 85 votes, Kloppenburger victory = +139 votes.

Jefferson 40/41 precincts reporting Prosser 12,860 and Kloppenburger 9,365

0.0244% uncounted * 12,860 = 313.66
0.0244% uncounted *  9,365 = 228.41

This will be a RECALL election.

[catgirl]

96. Awesome!!

[L. Coyote]

97. MAP: By County Kloppenberg/Prosser Supreme Court election results

NOTE: One precinct to report from Jefferson County (maybe already in the tally given the AP's errors).

http://ericcompas.wordpress.com/2011/04/06/kloppenbergprosser-election-results/

[L. Coyote]

98. 3629/3630 precincts - Prosser = 739,354 - Kloppenburger = 739,589 = +235

Was +240, then +224, now +235

[L. Coyote]

99. Jefferson Co. update via Capital Times. Kloppenburger WINS by +233 votes.

Jefferson Co. clerk's site is overwhelmed, but observers saying JK only lost by 2 in Township of Lake Mills, makes her a 233 vote winner!

http://host.madison.com/ct/

[L. Coyote]

100. 3629/3630 precincts - Prosser = 739,505 - Kloppenburger WINNING = 739,711 = +206

Added:

Prosser = 151
Kloppenburger = 122

Margin = 206 after -29 shift.

This now likely includes most of the votes in the "uncounted" precinct, which is about tied anyway if not.

[L. Coyote]

101. 3629/3630 precincts - Prosser = 739,886 - Kloppenburger WINNING = 740,090 = +204

This adds the one precinct in Jefferson County that was missing:

Added:
Prosser = 381
Kloppenburger = 379

For a final (+/-) count of +204

[L. Coyote]

103. Let's get our messaging straight: KLOPPENBURG WINS!!!

Can we please, please, please not try to be the smartest ones in the room just this one time and play the game that Republicans always play. Let's declare victory now and talk about pushing Prosser off the stage. This is the message.

Kloppenburg won an election she should never have won. What a humiliation for the Tea Party and their media toads.

This is a total Wisonsin smackdown of Scott Walker

Prosser should really understand it is time to leave the stage.

Prosser sticking around is just hurting Wisconsin.

There is serious businesss to conduct and Prosser is just gumming up the works by trying to challenge this.

....MORE: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/06/964040/-Lets-get-our-messaging-straight:KLOPPENBURG-WINS!!!

[malaise]

104. It's official- Election for judge seen as referendum on union law

http://www.wisconsinrapidstribune.com/article/20110406/WRT0101/104060731/1836/wrt0205/Update-Kloppenburg-declares-victory-Supreme-Court-race?odyssey=nav|head
<snip>
MADISON — Little-known attorney JoAnne Kloppenburg has declared victory over incumbent state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser.

According to unofficial results, Kloppenburg had 204 more votes than Prosser. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Kloppenburg had 740,090 votes, or 50.01 percent. Prosser had 739,886 votes, or 49.99 percent. Final results could change and aren't official until they are canvassed and certified by the Government Accountability Board.

Kloppenburg issued a statement thanking Prosser for his service and vowing to be an impartial judge. Prosser's campaign didn't immediately return a message seeking comment on whether he would seek a recount. The latest such a request could be made is April 20.

--------------------
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/usa-wisconsin-election-idUSN0621658320110406
<snip>

Wed Apr 6, 2011 5:10pm EDT

By Jeff Mayers

MADISON, Wis, April 6 (Reuters) - The Democratic-backed candidate for Wisconsin Supreme Court judge claimed victory on Wednesday in an election seen as a referendum on a law curbing union power with implications for cash-strapped U.S. states.

Challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg beat Republican-backed incumbent Judge David Prosser by slightly more than 200 votes out of 1.4 million cast on Tuesday, according to local media.

"We owe Justice Prosser our gratitude for his more than 30 years of public service," Kloppenburg said. "Wisconsin voters have spoken ... . I will be independent and impartial and I will decide cases based on the facts and the law."

[L. Coyote]

106. Wis. Election Official: 'There Will Be Changes' In Vote Numbers

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/wis-election-official-there-will-be-changes-in-vote-numbers.php

.... It's not over yet -- and in fact, the totals could change as the counties review their numbers.

Kevin Kennedy, director of the state Government Accountability Board -- which oversees elections -- spoke to reporters Wednesday. The Wisconsin State Journal reports:

The unofficial totals showing Kloppenburg with a narrow lead are "very good numbers," Kennedy said, but they will change.

"There will be changes because this is a very human-driven process," Kennedy said. "We expect mistakes...Our goal will be to make sure every ballot is counted and every discrepancy on election day is accounted for."

[L. Coyote]

107. VIDEO: Kloppenburg Declares Victory in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x571068

[L. Coyote]

108. Winnebago County vote-count change alters Supreme Court race, Prosser leads Kloppenburg by 40 votes.

Winnebago County has altered their vote count, and the net effect alters the unofficial outcome of the election.
Added by the County:

Prosser	        710 votes
Kloppenburg	466 vote

=============s===
April 7, 2011 2:18 p.m.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119421429.html

... Figures on Winnebago County's website are now different ... Prosser ... 20,701 ... Kloppenburg's 18,887. ... AP has 19,991 for Prosser to Kloppenburg's 18,421.

The new numbers would give Prosser 244 more votes, or a 40-vote lead statewide.

.... The AP last checked figures with Winnebago County at 10:14 a.m. Wednesday, according to the AP. The county adjusted its figures at 2:27 p.m. ...

The news service is working to reach the Winnebago County clerk, but the clerk is participating in the canvass of the vote and has not returned a message.

[L. Coyote]

109. Prosser gains 7,500 votes in Waukesha County

Prosser gains 7,500 votes in Waukesha
By Jason Stein, Bill Glauber and Laurel Walker of the Journal Sentinel
Updated: April 7, 2011 7:48 p.m.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119410124.html


In a political bombshell, the clerk in a Republican stronghold released new vote totals adding a net total of 7,582 new votes in the tight state Supreme Court race to Justice David Prosser, swinging the race significantly in his favor.

Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said Thursday that she failed to save in her computer and consequently report 14,315 votes cast in the city of Brookfield, omitting them entirely in an unofficial tally released after Tuesday's election. The new totals give 10,859 more votes to Prosser from Brookfield and 3,456 more to Kloppenburg, she said. Smaller discrepancies turned up in two other communities as well.

"I'm thankful that this error was caught early in the process. This is not a case of extra ballots being found. This is human error which I apologize for, which is common," ...........

[a kennedy]

110. This just makes me sick......

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[BeFree]

117. What I read was...

..Brookfield sent in some numbers. Kathy told them to resend the numbers in a different format.

It is possible that the Brookfield numbers were included the first time, and then when sent again just piled on.

If so how hard will it be to find out if the numbers were doubled?

[The Backlash Cometh]

119. this is not a common human error.

[L. Coyote]

126. MORE: Corrected Brookfield tally puts Prosser ahead after 7,500-vote gain

MORE: Corrected Brookfield tally puts Prosser ahead after 7,500-vote gain
By Jason Stein, Laurel Walker and Bill Glauber of the Journal Sentinel
April 7, 2011 - http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119410124.html


.... Kloppenburg supporters reacted with alarm, pointing out that Nickolaus had worked in the Assembly Republican caucus during the time that Prosser, a former Republican lawmaker, served as the Assembly speaker and that Nickolaus also had faced questions about her handling of elections as clerk.

...

Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D-Kenosha) raised the possibility of an independent investigation over the recovery of the votes.

"This is a serious breach of election procedure," he said. "We're going to look further. She waited 24 hours to work this. And she waited until after she verified the results, making it that much more difficult to challenge and verify the results."

....

Ramona Kitzinger, the Democrat on the Waukesha County Board of Canvassers, said: "We went over everything and made sure all the numbers jibed up and they did. Those numbers jibed up, and we're satisfied they're correct."

As a Democrat, she said, "I'm not going to stand here and tell you something that's not true."

Waukesha County Executive Dan Vrakas, who sat in on Nickolaus' news conference, said voters can be confident in the results because "all the votes are in that office. If anyone wants to look at them and verify, they can."

Kristine Schmidt, the clerk in the city of Brookfield, said in a separate interview that she shared the results with the news media on election night.

She said she also sent the results twice to the county. ...........

[L. Coyote]

111. Statement from JoAnne Kloppenbur­g campaign manager Melissa Mulliken:

“Statement from JoAnne Kloppenbur­g campaign manager Melissa Mulliken:

"Wisconsin voters as well as the Kloppenbur­g for Justice Campaign deserve a full explanatio­n of how and why these 14,000 votes from an entire City were missed. To that end, we will be filing open records requests for all relevant documentat­ion related to the reporting of election results in Waukesha County, as well as to the discovery and reporting of the errors announced by the County. We are confident that election officials in Waukesha County will fulfill these requests as quickly as possible so that both our campaign and the people of Wisconsin can fully understand what happened and why. Just as Assistant Attorney General Kloppenbur­g has run to restore confidence in the court, Wisconsin residents also deserve to have full confidence in election results."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/AFAN/david-prosser-joanne-kloppenburg_n_846434_83626051.html

[L. Coyote]

112. Aug. 13, 2010 - Officials dispute reliability of Waukesha County clerk's election data system

Officials dispute reliability of Waukesha County clerk's election data system
Laurel Walker of the Journal Sentinel
Aug. 13, 2010 - http://www.jsonline.com/news/waukesha/100595954.html


Waukesha — Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus' decision to go it alone in how she collects and maintains election results has some county officials raising a red flag about the integrity of the system.

Nickolaus said she decided to take the election data collection and storage system off the county's computer network - and keep it on stand-alone personal computers accessible only in her office - for security reasons.

"What it gave me was good security of the elections from start to finish, without the ability of someone unauthorized to be involved," she said.

Nonetheless, Director of Administration Norman A. Cummings said because Nickolaus has kept them out of the loop, the county's information technology specialists have not been able to verify Nickolaus' claim that the system is secure from failure.

"How does anybody else in the county know, except for her verbal word ...........

[L. Coyote]

113. SUMMATION of Waukesha Co. entries above:

Edited to correct my surname error.

======
09:07 PM = 53. Waukesha Co. will move this towards equal, Milwaukie Co. will tip the scale back.
Waukesha Co. might tip 20,000 votes to Prosser yet.

09:32 PM - 59. 3344/3630 precincts - Prosser = 686,541 - Kloppenburg = 686,057
Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting 81,255 vs. 29,332
This is 66% vote counted.

09:45 PM - 61. WAUKESHA Co. 28.0% shifts down to 26.5%
Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting: 81,255 vs. 29,332
This is the one anomalous county at this point, with about a 8% difference compared to every other county in Wisconsin shifting blue 6% or more.

09:46 PM - 62. The Republican stronghold is the last to report, with a very anomalous result so far.
O.K., I'm getting suspicious.

09:58 PM - 64. WAUKESHA Co. precinct count is updated, vote remains the same.
Looks like the AP or someone is doing a poor job of sychronizing updates of votes and precincts reporting.
This has been messing up my algorithm. There won't be a bunch more votes tipping to Prosser in this county!

======
How about those final words?? Who knew incompetence could rise to such heights, if incompetence is what this is!

[L. Coyote]

114. LIST of Jurisdictions in Waukesha County

Big Bend
Brookfield city
Brookfield town
Butler
Chenequa
Delafield city
Delafield town
Dousman
Eagle town
Eagle village
Elm Grove
Genesee
Hartland
Lac La Belle
Lannon
Lisbon
Menomonee Falls
Merton town
Merton village
Milwaukee
Mukwonago town
Mukwonago village
Muskego
Nashotah
New Berlin
North Prairie
Oconomowoc city
Oconomowoc Lake
Oconomowoc town
Ottawa
Pewaukee city
Pewaukee village
Summit
Sussex
Vernon
Wales
Waukesha city
Waukesha town

Standard Polling Place Equipment Optical Scan
Vendor Sequoia Voting Systems Model Optech III-P Eagle
Tabulation Counted at polling place

Source: http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?state=Wisconsin&county=Waukesha&ec=mixed&year=2008

[brentspeak]

115. That's a list of the Winnebago precincts

Incorrect list, correct link.

[L. Coyote]

116. Thanks, fixed on edit.

On edit: If only I could go back and fix all the surname errors!!

[L. Coyote]

118. dKos: Brookfield WI numbers NOT adding up...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/08/964838/-Brookfield-WI-numbers-NOT-adding-up
Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 10:04 AM PDT


The Brookfield Patch reports the election results for Brookfield, broken down by ward, and the totals were:
10,859 for Prosser
3,456 for Kloppenburg

Thursday
Kathy Nickolaus holds a press conference announcing that she made some errors, the biggest of which was not including the Brookfield votes in the file sent to the GAB for official counts. She announces totals for Brookfield:
11,059 for Prosser
3,456 for Kloppenburg

Wait... what? The City of Brookfield sent her 10,859 votes for Prosser, but now she's claiming a new total of 11,059? Where'd the 200 votes come from?

..........

[L. Coyote]

120. Scandal in Fitzwalkerstan: Federal probe, full recount required in high court race

Scandal in Fitzwalkerstan: Federal probe, full recount required in high court race
http://host.madison.com/ct/news/opinion/editorial/article_be206ecd-4b8d-571a-9fa2-cb4e5bf8e668.html
Posted: Friday, April 8, 2011 11:45 am


Suppose the Democratic governor of Illinois had proposed radical changes in how the state operates, and suppose anger over those proposed changes inspired a popular uprising that filled the streets of every city, village and town in the state with protests. Then, suppose there was an election that would decide whether allies of the governor controlled the state’s highest court. Suppose the results of that election showed that an independent candidate who would not be in the governor’s pocket narrowly won that election.

Then, suppose it was announced by a Democratic election official in Chicago that she had found 14,000 votes in a machine-controlled ward that overwhelmingly favored the candidate aligned with the Democratic governor. And suppose the Democratic official who “found” the needed ballots for the candidate favored by the Democratic governor had previously been accused of removing election data from official computers and hiding the information on a personal computer, that the official’s actions had been censured even by fellow Democrats and that her secretive and erratic activities had been the subject of an official audit demanded by the leadership of the Cook County Board.

Now suppose that the number of additional votes tabulated for the governor’s candidate was precisely the number needed to prevent the independent candidate from demanding an official recount. ..........

[L. Coyote]

121. Strange Twist in Wisconsin Battle By Lisa Pease April 8, 2011

Strange Twist in Wisconsin Battle
By Lisa Pease
April 8, 2011 - http://www.consortiumnews.com/2011/040811b.html


... late in the day, Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus reported she had “forgotten” to report results from one city in her heavily Republican County.

And when she did “remember” to report the results, which she had kept at home on her personal computer despite having been told before the election not to do this, not only did the votes from that city put the Republican Prosser over the top, but the margin put the election itself just over the margin for which an automatic recount would kick in.

As the Church Lady on Saturday Night Live would have said, “How convenient.”

Nickolaus said she had entered the data into Microsoft Access but forgotten to hit save. As a longtime Access user myself, I can assure you it’s almost impossible not to save data in Access. As soon as you move from one record to the next (from one city to the next, from one total to the next, from one row to the next if in a spreadsheet view) whatever you typed in the current record is automatically saved.

This isn’t Word or Excel or some other program that won’t save until you tell it to. This is Access, which saves all the time, behind the scenes, as you work. The only thing that wouldn’t be saved if you shut down was the very last record you are on. .......

[L. Coyote]

122. High-profile lawyers retained for possible Supreme Court recount

High-profile lawyers retained for possible Supreme Court recount
JESSICA VANEGEREN AND STEVEN ELBOW | The Capital Times |
Posted: Friday, April 8, 2011 6:30 am - http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_3f954782-618c-11e0-ae4d-001cc4c03286.html


.... both camps are lawyering up and have brought in the big guns.

Kloppenburg's campaign is working with Marc Elias, an attorney with Perkins Coie, a Washington D.C.-based firm with an office in downtown Madison. Elias is the same attorney who represented Democratic challenger Al Franken in his eight-month epic recount battle with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Franken eventually prevailed, winning his U.S. Senate seat by 312 votes.

Prosser has hired Ben Ginsberg, a Washington-D.C. attorney who played a prominent role in the 2000 Bush-Gore presidential recount effort in Florida. He was also part of the team that represented Coleman in his recount effort. Prosser has also retained Madison attorney Jim Troupis, and Dan Kelly, who is based in Milwaukee.

Melissa Mulliken, Kloppenburg's campaign manager, said the campaign first hired Perkins Coie months ago to file an amicus brief in a suit lodged by Wisconsin Right to Life over the state's new judicial campaign public financing law, which Right to Life says stifles free speech. Mulliken said Thursday the campaign "plans to continue to work with him (Elias)." .....

[L. Coyote]

123. Agency Will Not Certify Court Race Until Probe Of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus Completed

Agency Will Not Certify Court Race Until Probe Of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus Completed
April 8, 2011 - http://dekerivers.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/agency-will-not-certify-court-race-until-probe-of-waukesha-county-clerk-kathy-nickolaus-completed/


Michael Haas, Government Accountability Board staff attorney, told Reuters on Friday the watchdog agency was looking into vote tabulation errors in Republican-leaning Waukesha County which gave the conservative incumbent a net gain of more than 7,000 votes — a lead his union-backed challenger seems unlikely to surmount.

“We’re going to do a review of the procedures and the records in Waukesha before we certify the statewide results,” Haas said.

“It’s not that we necessarily expect to find anything criminal. But we want to make sure the public has confidence in the results.”

[L. Coyote]

124. Investigation Into Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus Begins

Investigation Into Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus Begins
April 8, 2011 - http://dekerivers.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/investigation-into-waukesha-county-clerk-kathy-nickolaus-begins/


Kevin Kennedy, director and general counsel of the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB), announced today he is dispatching staff to inspect and review the election night procedures in Waukesha County ....

Kennedy issued the following statement today:

“Our election system is administered by people, and some problems are bound to occur. However, our post-election canvass system is designed to identify any errors and correct them. While unofficial results reported by some counties on Election Night have proven to be incorrect, the process of election officials canvassing and certifying those results is working.

“Because of the attention on vote totals from Brookfield, I am dispatching G.A.B. staff to Waukesha County today to review the business processes and verify the reported results in the election for Supreme Court justice. I have been in close contact with Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus since her news conference on Thursday, and have directed her to make the official returns from the polling places available for public inspection. These documents are public records. I believe she is now taking steps to ensure transparency and public confidence in the official results.

“The G.A.B. will issue a report on the results of its review as soon as possible, and before certifying the statewide election results.

[L. Coyote]

125. Brad Friedman: 'Database Error' Discovered by Controversial Clerk in Republican Waukesha County

By Brad Friedman - http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8456


UPDATED: New numbers now put state-sponsored recount just out of reach for Kloppenburg...

... the Rightwing National Review Online ... similarly Rightwing Weekly Standard ... Nickolaus is also "a Republican activist" ... website of the Republican Women of Waukesha County indicates that Kathy Nickolaus recently served as president (http://www.waukeshagop.org/womendir.html)

... in August of 2010, it was discovered that Nickolaus keeps election results on her personal PC in her office, and only on her personal PC. (http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7988)

.... When presented with the results of the audit at a County Board meeting in January after Nickolaus had refused to implement the recommendations, saying only that she would take them "into consideration," she was taken to task for what the Chairman of the Executive Committee described as her "smirks" during the discussion. Here is how the Journal Sentinel reported that meeting in January of this year... (http://www.jsonline.com/news/waukesha/114014589.html)

"This isn't that big of a deal. It isn't worth an argument," she said. "This is ridiculous."

We explained, in our August 2010 report ...

Hopefully, the citizens and county administrators in Waukesha County, Wisconsin (adjacent to Milwaukee), will realize how completely insane it is to allow one person, County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus (R), to have complete, unfettered, un-observable, un-overseeable control of such public information ...

[L. Coyote]

127. Baldwin calls for investigation of Waukesha County vote reporting

Baldwin calls for investigation of Waukesha County vote reporting
By Bill Glauber of the Journal Sentinel
April 9, 2011 11:33 a.m. - http://www.jsonline.com/newswatch/119532844.html


U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder asking for a federal investigation into the handling of vote records in Waukesha County ... she sent the letter Friday night.

Baldwin wrote Holder: "Following this week's election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, numerous constituents have contacted me expressing serious doubt that this election was a free and fair one. They fear, as I do, that political interests are manipulating the results."

Baldwin asked Holder to assign the Justice Department Public Integrity Section, which oversees the federal prosecution of election crimes, to investigate.

........

[L. Coyote]

130. Congresswoman Seeks Federal Investigation of Wisconsin Election = John Nichols

Congresswoman Seeks Federal Investigation of Wisconsin Election
John Nichols
April 10, 2011 - http://www.thenation.com/blog/159838/congresswoman-seeks-federal-investigation-wisconsin-election


....

“For our democracy to endure, we, the people, must have faith in its laws and system of justice, including faith that our elections for public office are fair and free from any manipulation or tampering,” Baldwin wrote to Holder. “Following this week’s election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, numerous constituents have contacted me expressing serious doubt that this election was a free and fair one. They fear, as I do, that political interests are manipulating the results.”

Baldwin is not exaggerating when she refers to “numerous constituents… expressing serious doubt that this election was a free and fair one.”

....

Baldwin’s tone throughout her letter is measured and responsible. She relies on the facts. And the facts point to the conclusion that outside intervention is warranted.

Borrowing from demands made by watchdog groups in Wisconsin, the congresswoman suggests that: “To ensure that the April 5th election for Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice is free, fair, and transparent, and to uphold faith in our democracy for ourselves and future generations, I ask for your immediate assistance in investigating these election inconsistencies in Wisconsin. Specifically, I urge you to immediately assign the Justice Department Public Integrity Section, which oversees the federal prosecution of election crimes, to investigate the questionable handling of vote records in Waukesha County, Wisconsin.”

If Holder makes that assignment, the lawyers from the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section can work with Wisconsin’s Government Accountability Board ..........

[L. Coyote]

128. WISCONSIN VOTE SPREAD 29,207? OR 7,500? Or 6,744?

http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/8/81631.html

Posted on Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 6:28 pm: Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)
I've been buried in e-mails, phone calls and urgent cries for help regarding the strange saga of the Wisconsin Spring 2011 Supreme Court race. Early results separated David T. Prosser Jr. from Joanne Kloppenburg by just a hair, in a controversial high profile race characterized by polarized commentary on both right and left. Then the surprise late entry of 14,326 Brookfield votes tipped the race to Prosser and out of reach of a recount. Barely.

If the late Brookfield votes just coincidentally blocked a state-paid recount, scrutiny is appropriate. I wanted to know the exact number of votes needed for that magic recount number.

I downloaded the detailed election results spreadsheet from the state of Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board (GAB) Website. The spreadsheet is time-stamped Friday, April 08, 2011 4:11:14 PM, nearly 24 hours after the Brookfield votes came in.

http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/page/contests_by_reporting_unit_for_all_reported_counti_22616.xls

WISCONSIN'S WANDERING TALLIES

The latest state spreadsheet as of this writing doesn't show the candidates separated by a dead heat. It doesn't show them separated by a smidgen over the 7,500 votes reported to be needed to block a recount. And it doesn't show the magic recount number as 7,500 votes.

The Friday Wisconsin results, still unofficial because the election hasn't been certified yet, show a total of 1,103,826 votes, with 566,130 for Prosser and 536,923 for Kloppenburg (and 773 random scattered votes).

In this spreadsheet, which contains detailed results by municipality and includes the late-breaking Brookfield votes, the spread is 29,207 for Prosser and the magic number for a recount would be only 5,519.

That's because AFTER Brookfield came into the state, there were (and are, as of this writing) still 400,000 votes missing from the state data.

WHEN DID BROOKFIELD COMMIT TO THE DATA?

When the story about Brookfield first broke, my very first question was: What about the municipal results? Do you mean to tell me those candidates were so incurious that they never asked for their results? Of course, it turns out, those results HAD been posted in Brookfield, as had the Brookfield supreme court race results, just after midnight on Election Night.

There was no variance between the results posted at the municipality of Brookfield and the late-reported results.

Could the late-reported results have been a ploy? In other words, was someone waiting to see what they needed, so they could tack a few hundred on to Brookfield votes to hit the magic block-a-recount number?

There was no variance between the results committed to on Election Night and the late results sent to the state.

DID THE WAUKESHA COUNTY CLERK MAKE UP THE NUMBERS?

But maybe the county clerk had her way with the results on that murky uncertified private computer she was using?

Poll workers in Wisconsin do reconciliations. You can't have thousands of ballots appear out of thin air on a county computer without those same ballot quantities being signed off on by poll workers days earlier at, in the case of Brookfield, 24 different locations all featuring different personnel.

I recommended to the locals to get copies of the poll worker reconciliations for Brookfield's 24 wards .............

......MORE..........

[L. Coyote]

129. Election investigation to hold news conference today

Election investigation to hold news conference today
April 11, 2011, 08:20 AM - http://www.piercecountyherald.com/event/article/id/34845/


MADISON - We expect to learn more today about a major election-related investigation. The state’s Government Accountability Board and the Milwaukee County District Attorney’s office will hold a news conference this afternoon in Madison to announce the probe.

Neither agency would say much about what to expect. Board spokesman Reid Magney would only say that it’s separate from the Waukesha County problem from last week’s Supreme Court election.

...........

[L. Coyote]

131. Prosser spokesman open to Waukesha County recount

Prosser spokesman open to Waukesha County recount
POSTED: Sunday, April 10th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
BY: Associated Press - http://wislawjournal.com/blog/2011/04/10/prosser-spokesman-open-to-waukesha-county-recount/



Donna Deuster, the assistant city clerk in Racine, verifies security tags
on sealed bags of ballots cast in the city, in the County Clerk's office
in the Racine County Courthouse, on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Journal Times, Mark Hertzberg)

MILWAUKEE (AP) — The campaign manager for Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser says he’s open to a recount of Waukesha County votes............

[L. Coyote]

132. Waukesha county, 2006 = 20,000 more votes than ballots, irregularities go back to 2004

Apr 12, 2011 at 01:52 AM PDT
20,000 more votes than ballots (Waukesha county, 2006)
by Cieran - http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/12/966093/-20,000-more-votes-than-ballots

Directly from the WaukeshaCounty.gov election results for 2006

156,804 - Total ballots cast in Waukesha county
176,112 - Total votes for Governor/Lt Governor race
174,244 - Total votes for US Senator
174,047 - Total votes for Attorney General
170,440 - Total votes for Secretary of State
168,861 - Total votes for State Treasurer

Brought to you by Kathy Nickolaus.

Partially sourced from this great diary:
Apr 11, 2011 at 08:05 PM PDT
Waukesha voting irregularities go back to 2004...
by yourguide = http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/11/965994/-Waukesha-voting-irregularities-go-back-to-2004

Waukesha 2004, Bush v. Kerry.

Apparently in 2004 the polls in Waukesha were teeming with voters as the Waukesha County Clerk's office showed a 97.63% turn out. No, that's not a typo. 97.63%

http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/...

Of the 236,642 registered voters in Waukesha on Nov 2, 2004 apparently 231,031 of them came out in a hint of rain and drizzle and did their civic duty.

Just to put this in perspective, Australia has compulsory (mandatory) voting and their turnout is 95%.

The estimated population of Waukesha in July of 2004 was 375,350 with 91,530 residents under the age of 18. (source) Leaving out solely residents under the age of 18 that leaves 283,820 residents that are of voting age (remember that number, it will be referenced again). That's an 83% voter registration number which is well above both the national average and Wisconsin's average.

Kathy Nickolaus bragged about 2004 turnout .......

....... in November of 2004 there were 236K registered voters. In the Spring General Election of 2004 the election results showed the registered voter roll at 233,415. (source) So the county picked up a marginal number of voters for a 1.3% increase in the rolls leading into a BIG Presidential election.

Flash forward to The February 15, 2005 Spring Primary in Waukesha. Over a period of about 3 months the voter roll ballooned from the 236K seen in the November 2004 Presidential Election up to 282,390. (source) So in the 8 months leading into the 2004 Presidential Election there was a marginal 1.3% increase in the rolls netting about 3000 additional new voters. However in the 3 months after the election, which showed an anomalous 97.63% turn out, suddenly the rolls surged to the tune of almost 50,000 new voters and upped the rolls 20%. .........

[L. Coyote]

142. (WI-AG '06) Nickolaus: Ballots Not Intended To Be A Factual Statement

(WI-AG '06) Nickolaus: "Ballots" Not Intended To Be A Factual Statement
Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 12:19 AM PDT - http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/15/967150/-%28WI-AG-06%29-Nickolaus:-Ballots-Not-Intended-To-Be-A-Factual-Statement


So, on Monday I saw this great diary by yourguide about irregularities in Waukesha county going back to 2004. Among irregularities including 96% turnout in Waukesha (holy voting pride, batman!) I noticed a gem in that diary about the Nov 2006 election votes exceeding the total ballots reported, and I knew that it needed to be highlighted so I started this diary on Monday.

To paraphrase:
Waukesha county lists 156k ballots cast, but more than 176k for Governor and 174k for Attorney General (a race that Walker-lackey Van Hollen won by only 8859 votes statewide). Well by Tuesday the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/119732209.html)had picked up on the story and asked Kathy Nickolaus for comment. On Tuesday, Kathy claims: Oops! Not Intended To Be A Factual Statement!

................

[L. Coyote]

133. Statement & Account of Ramona Kitzinger, Waukesha Board of Canvassers

Statement & Account of Ramona Kitzinger, Waukesha Board of Canvassers member since 2004:
Monday, April 11, 2011
http://www.orchidforchange.com/parties/waukeshadems.com/ht/display/ArticleDetails/i/1343504


(Waukesha County Democratic Party)On Tuesday night, I received a voice message from someone in the office of Clerk Kathy Nickolaus informing me of a Wednesday canvass meeting, which I returned the next morning and said I would be able to report into the canvass by noon - which I did. Normally the canvass would begin at 9am on Thursday, as has been the general practice for many years. No one explained why they were beginning the canvass on Wednesday, just to please report immediately.

Before this telephone call, I had not been contacted as the designated Democratic observer, and I saw no public notice of the abnormal canvass time. The phone call simply instructed me to report by noon to begin the canvass, which I did. The canvass then proceeded as normal, with no glaring irregularities or mention of a possible 15,000 vote error in Brookfield City.

On Thursday, I then showed up as per normal procedure at 9am and the canvass again went normally and concluded sometime between 4pm and 5pm. During the course of the day, the issue of minor vote corrections in New Berlin and Lisbon came up, but again nothing of a historic nature or reflecting glaring irregularities. In fact, the matter of vote totals in Brookfield City came up specifically during the course of Thursday's canvass. In retrospect, it seems both shocking and somewhat appalling there was no mention of discovery of this 15,000 vote 'human error' that ultimately had the potential to tip the balance of an entire statewide election. How is this possible?

Once the canvass had been completed and the results were finalized, I was called into Kathy's office along with Pat (the Republican observer) and told of an impending 5:30pm press conference. It was at that point that I was first made aware of an error Kathy had made in Brookfield City. Kathy told us she thought she had saved the Brookfield voter information Tuesday night, but then on Wednesday she said she noticed she had not hit save. Kathy didn't offer an explanation about why she didn't mention anything prior to Thursday afternoon's canvass completion, but showed us different tapes where numbers seemed to add up, though I have no idea where the numbers were coming from. I was not told of the magnitude of this error, just that she had made one. I was then instructed that I would not say anything at the press conference, and was actually surprised when I was asked questions by reporters.

The reason I offer this explanation is that, with the enormous amount of attention this has received over the weekend, many people are offering my statements at the press conference that the 'numbers jibed' as validation they are correct and I can vouch for their accuracy. As I told Kathy when I was called into the room - I am 80 years old and I don't understand anything about computers. I don't know where the numbers Kathy was showing me ultimately came from, but they seemed to add up. I am still very, very confused about why the canvass was finalized before I was informed of the Brookfield error and it wasn't even until the press conference was happening that I learned it was this enormous mistake that could swing the whole election. I was never shown anything that would verify Kathy's statement about the missing vote, and with how events unfolded and people citing me as an authority on this now, I feel like I must speak up.

[L. Coyote]

134. More Twists and Turns in Wisconsin By Lisa Pease

More Twists and Turns in Wisconsin
By Lisa Pease
April 12, 2011 - http://www.consortiumnews.com/2011/041211a.html


.....

Computers were supposed to make counting elections easier and more honest. But in the end, a computer is only as honest as the person who is operating it.

The right thing to do here, regardless of the margin of victory, is to do a full hand recount of Waukesha County’s ballots. According to the Wisconsin Secretary of State’s information, voters voted on paper ballots that were then optically scanned.

Rather than running those ballots through a computer, I and others who care about the integrity of our vote, no matter where we live, would love to see a hand count of all the ballots in that county. If the results hold up, fine.

...........

[L. Coyote]

135. John Nichols: Waukesha matters, but so does the rest of Wisconsin

John Nichols: Waukesha matters, but so does the rest of Wisconsin
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 7:15 am
http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/column/john_nichols/article_c2dbd89a-64a7-11e0-829a-001cc4c002e0.html



.... Waukesha County is not the only one where vote totals are shifting ...

That's normal. When 1,800 local clerks are working with 72 county clerks to tabulate the results of an election in which 1.5 million Americans voted ....

.... a thorough review of all the ballots and machinery. That's the best way to determine who really won and to give that candidate credibility as a justice.

....

Every vote in every county must be reviewed and tabulated properly if the purpose of the recount is to be achieved.

John Nichols is associate editor of The Capital Times.

[L. Coyote]

136. Democratic party official calls on Nickolaus to resign

Democratic party official calls on Nickolaus to resign

Source: By Laurel Walker of the Milkaukee Journal Sentinel - April 12, 2011 9:42 a.m.

Waukesha - A Waukesha County Democratic Party leader has called on Republican Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus to resign immediately in light of her performance in reporting results from last week's election and the fallout since.

Party Chairman Victor Weers said in a news release Tuesday that not only has the clerk's vote-counting and reporting process produced problems, but "Ms. Nicholaus (sic) has willfully ignored pleas to repair her broken reporting process in an open and technologically reliable way."

He said, "We must have a county clerk that we can trust to do this important work of the people with competence, security and openness. Waukesha must have a new county clerk now."

Nickolaus was not available for comment Tuesday morning, a clerk in her office said. .....

Read more: http://www.jsonline.com/news/waukesha/119691584.html

=================
X-post from LBN: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4810841

[L. Coyote]

137. Nickolaus rejects calls for resignation

Nickolaus rejects calls for resignation
April 12, 2011 3:50 p.m. - http://www.jsonline.com/news/waukesha/119691584.html


Waukesha - Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus issued a statement Tuesday afternoon rejecting calls that she resign. "I will serve the remainder of my term," Nickolaus said. "I understand why people are upset and I am taking this matter seriously. Again, I am sorry for my mistake."

"I have immediately begun the process of reviewing my procedures," with the Government Accountability Board and Waukesha County auditor, she said ...

... Both campaigns and state election officials from the Government Accountability Board have since pored over her canvass report and municipal vote records to verify the results. No recount can be requested until every county has certified its results to the state, expected later this week. .....

[L. Coyote]

138. Brookfield Election Results Verified, County Clerk Won't Resign

Brookfield Election Results Verified, County Clerk Won't Resign
Posted Wednesday April 13, 2011 - http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2011/apr/13/brookfield-election-results-verified-county-clerk-/


MADISON, Wis. (WTAQ) - State election officials say they have verified last Tuesday’s Supreme Court results from Brookfield.

.....

Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus – who failed to include Brookfield’s totals on Election Night – rejected calls Tuesday to resign. County Democrats said she has ignored pleas to be more open about reporting election results.

State officials have said the same thing, and the Republican Nickolaus promised Tuesday to be more open.

Normally, she only discloses the countywide vote on Election Night, and not the totals for each community as clerks in other counties normally give out.

.....

Nickolaus has been Waukesha County’s clerk for 9 years. Her current term ends in 2012.

[L. Coyote]

139. Investigation into Wisconsin Supreme Court election results continues

Investigation into Wisconsin Supreme Court election results continues
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/13/966348/-Investigation-into-Wisconsin-Supreme-Court-election-results-continues
Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 08:31 AM PDT


In the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, 69 of 72 counties have reported final results, with the final three likely coming in late today. Current totals show incumbent David Prosser leading by 7,303 votes, which puts the final margin close enough that Kloppenburg can request a recount without her campaign having to pay for it.

Kloppenburg has three days after the vote is certified to request a recount. However, certification will not happen until the Government Accountability Board completes its investigation into Waukesha County results and into County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus. That investigation is ongoing:

....

# Kathy Nickolaus is not the only person in possession of vote totals from each precinct (or ward, as a precinct is called in Wisconsin). In each of the 180 wards in Waukesha County, there are multiple poll workers who also have those numbers.

# By adding up numbers from each ward as reported by local poll workers, the Government Accountability Board (which is run entirely by people appointed by a Democratic Governor) can arrive at a vote total for Waukesha County independently of Kathy Nickolaus.

.........

[L. Coyote]

140. Expanded probe of Waukesha County election procedures sought State Democrats = 2006

Expanded probe of Waukesha County election procedures sought
State Democrats make request after an apparent discrepancy is discovered in 2006 results
Mike Johnson of the Journal Sentinel - April 14, 2011 - http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119890909.html


The Democratic Party of Wisconsin on Thursday asked the state Government Accountability Board to expand its investigation of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus' election procedures to include a review of the county's vote totals from the Nov. 7, 2006, general election.

Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chairman Mike Tate says there is an apparent discrepancy in 2006 results posted on the county clerk website between the number of votes in the attorney general's race and the number of ballots cast.

The results show 174,047 votes in the attorney general's race, but only 156,804 ballots cast.

"This is an underreporting of 17,243 votes," Tate says in a letter to Kevin Kennedy, the executive director of the Government Accountability Board, calling for an expanded inquiry. "I note with serious concern that this discrepancy is more than enough to have swung the statewide election against the Republican and for the Democrat."

Republican J.B. Van Hollen defeated Democrat Kathleen Falk in that election by 8,859 votes. ................

[L. Coyote]

141. State investigating vote irregularities in Waukesha County going back 5 years

State investigating vote irregularities in Waukesha County going back 5 years
MARY SPICUZZA - Friday, April 15, 2011 4:30 am
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/article_46644a68-6704-11e0-907e-001cc4c03286.html


The state's investigation into vote irregularities in Waukesha County will stretch back at least five years, the head of the Government Accountability Board said Thursday. Questions over vote totals in Waukesha have lingered over the past week .... questions have emerged over Nickolaus' published vote counts from as far back as the fall of 2006, when there were key statewide elections including races for governor and attorney general.

"This is part of what we're looking into. We have a lot of complaints," said Kevin Kennedy, the director and general counsel for GAB. "It's part of our investigation."

Kennedy said the board's current priority is determining the integrity of numbers reported in this spring's election but added investigators are reviewing broader questions about Nickolaus and vote counting. GAB staff members have been in Waukesha County much of the week, ...........

[former9thward]

143. They knew that in 2006. Why did they wait five years before complaining?

[L. Coyote]

144. Prosser confirmed winner of Supreme Court race

12:38 PM, Apr. 15, 2011 - http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20110415/OSH0101/110415139/Prosser-confirmed-winner-Supreme-Court-race


MADISON, Wis. (AP) - A justice has weathered attempts to link him to Wisconsin’s governor and a divisive union rights law and won re-election, according to county vote totals finalized Friday.

Tallies from each of the state’s 72 counties show Justice David Prosser defeated challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg by 7,316 votes. State election officials said they will wait to declare an official winner until the deadline for Kloppenburg to seek a recount passes. She has until Wednesday to call for one.

Kloppenburg’s and Prosser’s campaigns had no immediate comment. ..............

======================
WisPolitics.com Election Blog
http://elections.wispolitics.com/

[L. Coyote]

145. Ballots are now totaled: Prosser wins by 7,316

Ballots are now totaled: Prosser wins by 7,316
By Mike Johnson and Larry Sandler of the Journal Sentinel
April 16, 2011 - http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119938614.html

........

The deadline for calling for a recount is 5 p.m. Wednesday. Although counties have certified their results, by law the Government Accountability Board can't certify the statewide results and declare an official winner until after that recount deadline passes or after completion of a recount, the state agency noted.

The Kloppenburg campaign has not decided whether to seek a recount, and it has not conceded the race, either.

Prosser spokesman Brian Nemoir declared victory for the incumbent, issuing a statement that said, "Today, the will of the electorate is clear with the last canvass now completed and Justice David Prosser re-elected to another 10-year term to the Supreme Court. "Justice Prosser extends his appreciation and respect to JoAnne Kloppenburg and her spirited campaign. With certified results in hand, Justice Prosser hopes that a shared respect for the judiciary allows the campaign to move to a positive conclusion."

Kloppenburg campaign manager Melissa Mulliken issued a statement saying, "Now that the statewide canvass is complete, our campaign will focus our decision-making on whether to request a recount. . . .  We will review the information available to us and carefully weigh the options."

.............

[L. Coyote]

146. VIDEO: Prosser's Wis. Supreme Court Victory Speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO9Rf49nleE

[L. Coyote]

147. Wisconsin's Election Snafu Is a National Wake-Up Call

Wisconsin's Election Snafu Is a National Wake-Up Call
* OPINION
* APRIL 18, 2011
By JOHN FUND - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260653672631890.html


It's been over a decade since the Bush-Gore recount in Florida was supposed to spur a wholesale modernization of our election systems. But a stunning mistake made by a Wisconsin county clerk in a nationally watched state Supreme Court race reminded us of how far we have to go.

Wisconsin voters went to the polls on April 5 in an election that could have flipped the state Supreme Court's majority from conservative to liberal. On the morning of April 6, liberal challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg declared victory by a margin of some 200 votes. But the next day Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus announced that she had excluded some 14,000 votes from the city of Brookfield when she gave her final tally to the Associated Press on election night. The revised tally put conservative incumbent David Prosser more than 7,000 votes ahead of Ms. Kloppenburg, and he has since been verified the clear winner.

Ms. Nickolaus's error could have been easily avoided through transparency. She had ended the prior clerk's practice of reporting election results for individual cities because it was "not her responsibility" and she didn't "have the staff to enter all the data"—an absurd statement given that many smaller counties post such data on their websites. Many states, such as Kentucky, offer user-friendly websites to track returns statewide.

Not so in Wisconsin—and if we don't view this month's mess as a wake-up call, we'll have only ourselves to blame if next year's presidential election turns into a rerun of Florida 2000. Americans know it could happen: The Brookings Institution reports that in a 2004 poll of 37 nations, Americans were more likely than citizens of any country save Russia to say that their elections are "very dishonest."

..............

[L. Coyote]

148. UPDATE: Kloppenburg's campaign files recount papers

Kloppenburg's campaign files recount papers
Posted: Apr 20, 2011 10:21 AM http://www.wkow.com/Global/story.asp?S=14482946

MADISON (WKOW) -- The campaigns for Wisconsin's two Supreme Court candidates are firing back and forth at each other over the decision to call for a statewide recount.

JoAnne Kloppenburg's campaign filed papers Wednesday afternoon at the Government Accountability Board's office to request the recount, which will be paid for using state and local government funds.

"There are legitimate and widespread anomalies and widespread questions about the conduct of this election," said Kloppenburg at a press conference shortly after the papers were filed.

Kloppenburg says a recount is needed to restore faith in future elections, and says her campaign has found reason to doubt the official canvass totals ...............

===============
FAUX NEWS: Failed Democrat Requests Recount in Wisconsin
http://nation.foxnews.com/joanne-kloppenburg/2011/04/20/failed-democrat-requests-recount-wisconsin

.... Kloppenburg also called on the board to appoint a special investigator to probe the "actions and words" of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus. ....

===============
(Reuters) - Wisconsin court race heads for recount
MADISON, Wis | Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:04pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/20/us-wisconsin-election-idUSTRE73J71720110420


Wisconsin's election oversight agency said on Wednesday that the challenger in the close race for a seat on the state Supreme Court has asked for a recount.

The April 5 high court contest was widely seen as a referendum on the state's new Republican leadership and the curbs they have imposed on public sector collective bargaining ...

the contest took on added significance because it was the first statewide race since the Republican-controlled legislature approved a proposal by Governor Scott Walker to restrict public workers union rights.

Several legal challenges to the law are making their way toward the state's top court -- adding to the election's stakes.

The high court currently has a 4-3 conservative majority. If Kloppenburg had upset Prosser, an event that seemed possible a week ago but now seems improbable, it would have flipped the court and given opponents of the anti-union measure hope the law would be overturned. ..........

[L. Coyote]

149. New Details on Wisconsin Supreme Court 'Recount,' Waukesha County Clerk Investigation

New Details on Wisconsin Supreme Court 'Recount,' Waukesha County Clerk Investigation
Kloppenburg filing for special investigator alleges Prosser met privately with Walker on night after election, Nickolaus may have committed felonies
Both camps agree to hand counts in parts of 31 counties...
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8486

On Wednesday, Wisconsin's Asst. Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg announced that she will be exercising her right to file for a statewide "recount" following the April 5th election for state Supreme Court against the incumbent Justice David Prosser. She also said that she intended to ask for a special investigator to be named to look into a number of still-unanswered questions about election results that were misreported by Waukesha County's Clerk Kathy Nickolaus, a former employee of Prosser's when both served in the state's Assembly Republican Caucus.

Kloppenburg's complaints have now been filed, and The BRAD BLOG has been reviewing both them, and several additional points of note since yesterday's dramatic presser, in advance of the count which is scheduled to begin next Wednesday, April 27, according to the WI Government Accountability Board (G.A.B.), the state's top election agency.

Details included in Kloppenburg's request for a special investigator in Waukesha --- including the curious point that Prosser "was observed entering the Governor's Office late in the evening and attending a private, one-on-one meeting with Governor Scott Walker" on the night following the election, on the very same day in which the controversial new GOP Governor publicly stated that there might be "ballots somewhere, somehow found out of the blue that weren't counted before." --- are certainly compelling.

Moreover, information and questions about the "recount" process itself have naturally emerged