Thought experiment: Would McCain have won in 2008 if he had chosen Lieberman as VP?

[mistertrickster]

I think yes.

He was ahead in the polls in August/Sept, before Palin showed herself to be a moron. A nomination of Lieberman would galvanize the influential Jewish bloc (not that there's anything wrong with that, but let's not kid ourselves on the power of ethnic identity). It would also appeal to the muddy middle that McCain wants bi-partisanship.

Your thoughts?

[jzola]

1. No!

[Life Long Liberal]

2. No, he looked like a grumpy old man and clueless. VP didn't matter much. But....

I wonder if Romney would have won if running as president with the financial crisis.

[n2doc]

3. no

Too old and out of it. His debacle during the financial crisis would have sealed his fate, even if he hadn't had Palin. Remember the rise in late summer was due to Palin. LIEberman would have infuriated the base of the republican party.

[mistertrickster]

7. That's a good point. The LIE man would have alienated his base. nt

[karynnj]

19. True, but where could they go?

They would have still voted against the in their view, half Kenyan, likely Moslem, black: - no matter who was on their ticket - though they might have really disliked LIeberman.

*

[Bumblebee]

4. who cares? let's look forward, not backward

[mistertrickster]

6. Edit--to move forward, one has to look backward. nt

[Ikonoklast]

8. But, that isn't history.

You might as well ask what would have happened in SE Asia if Kennedy wasn't assassinated.

It's speculation.

[Agent William]

5. No.

[JVS]

9. Nobody likes Lieberman.

Not the right, not the left, not the middle.

[mistertrickster]

11. The voters of Connecticut?

[Drale]

18. Not even the aliens on the planet that he came from

:rofl:

[David__77]

10. Pro-choice, pro-gay Lieberman? No.

It would have enraged the rightists, no doubt about it. They were already wary enough of McCain himself. It would have had adverse impact on GOP candidates elsewhere, meaning their rout could have been worse.

[mod mom]

36. you forgot pro-war and still a resounding NO!

[fujiyama]

12. Yeah right

Look at the margins (both popular vote and electoral vote). Lieberman would have helped McCain get maybe a few extra points in CT, but they would have lost the state anyways. I doubt he would have helped much in FL either. Plus Lieberman's pro choice record would have turned off social conservatives.

[Hubert Flottz]

13. I can't believe that you would say such a thing on a progressive site.

I'm turning you in to the mods for saying "Joe LIEberman."

[karynnj]

14. I think it would have helped with independents - but not that much with Jews

I don't think that he would have won the majority of Jews - even with Lieberman. tI am Jewish and remember the great excitement in the Jewish community when he was chosen in 2000. However, if I remember correctly, he did not carry the majority of Jews in CT in 2006. In addition, Jews are 2 % of the population. As VP for a conservative ticket, that was pro-war, I really do not think he would have done well. McCain would have done somewhat better - but more because Palin literally scared many people I knew.

I do think he would have done better with Independents because it would have appeared bipartisan. I know that Lieberman was respected by many of the genuinely independent people I knew because he stood against his party. Many of them also had liked McCain when he was a maverick. Picking Lieberman would have been as real maverick.

The question is whether Lieberman could have helped McCain better when the crash hit. McCain acted so strangely, it is no surprise that his numbers fell.

[onenote]

34. Actually, exit polls showed that Lieberman got 65% of the Jewish vote in 2006

Which is not a particularly good showing compared to past races (but is a majority)

[karynnj]

42. Sorry - I went by memory and should have checked

That is a good showing either against another Jew in the primary or in a 3 way general election.

[emulatorloo]

15. McCain lost with "The fundamentals of the economy are sound" after the collapse

He sealed the deal by "Suspending my Campaign".

He looked like an out of touch erratic hothead.

[MrTriumph]

16. Heavens no, the R base would have deserted the ticket. Hmm. Not a bad idea.

party discipline...a good thing

[still_one]

17. NO. Most of the Jewish population in the U.S. are Democrats, and after what LIEberman had done in

regard to selling out the Democratic party to support mccain, they would NOT vote for him. In fact the iimplication that the Jewish population would only vote for a person just because he was Jewish implies that the U.S. Jewish population doesn't think about the issues, is wrong

The U.S. Jewish population is as diversified as any other demographic group, and stereo types are not accurate

There are about 13 to 15 million Jews world wide, and only 6.5 million in the U.S. Definitely not a majority, and if anything the 2000 election demonstrated that LIEberman actually hurt Gore instead of helping him.

The Jewish population voted for Gore, NOT because he had LIEberman on the ticket, but because Gore was a Democrat who stood for Democratic principles, and protecting social security, the environment, etc.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

20. You're Ignoring The Reason Why McCain Was Forced To Take Palin To Begin With

Conservatives didn't think McCain was "conservative enough," and the Party higher-ups were all over him to take a "hard-line" righty in order to solidify his base, which was wavering. If he had taken a Democrat (and a socially liberal Democrat at that) as his running mate, the conservatives would have abandoned him in droves. Remember the reports from back then stating that the Party bosses were pressurimg him to take a running mate who was Anti-Choice? I can't remember who it was he wanted at the time, but I remember that the person he REALLY wanted to be his running mate was a Pro-Choice Republican, and as soon as this person's name surfaced, the "you better nots" started rolling in from the right-wing echo chamber.

The McCain candidacy was a dead-bang loser from the word go, no matter who he picked as a running mate. He SHOULD have taken Romney (even though the two can't stand each other personally), but even Romney wouldn't have helped him much. After so many gaffes and flubs in the press, and then getting lambasted in all 3 debates, McCain never had a chance.

And I find this an interesting exercise to look back on this, because as I've looked at the political landscape for 2012, you know who I see as being the MOST "electable" of pretty much all the big-name Republicans right now? John McCain. And he'd get beat even worse in 2012. That's why I'm not even a little bit worried about losing the White House in 2012. The Republicans have NOTHING. All the adults have left the room.

[still_one]

22. mccain choose palin because he thought Hillary would win the Democratic nomination. The problem

with his reasoning was that Hillary has a brain, palin is a complete idiot

dangerous, but an idiot nevertheless

[ChoppinBroccoli]

26. The Palin Pick Came Within Days Of The Democratic Convention

By then, everyone knew Obama was the nominee (except for a few delusional PUMAs). I think McCain may have had hopes of converting a bunch of Hillary voters by basically pandering to them (Look! My running mate has lady parts too!!!). Nevermind that the two couldn't have been more different.

No, it had more to do with trying to pacify the hard-line righties within the Party than anything else.

[mistertrickster]

45. +100 for last two sentences nt

[A-Schwarzenegger]

21. Or Sarah could have had Joe's voice.

It would have given her that gravitas thing.

[JoePhilly]

23. no

[LynneSin]

24. I think this is really what sank McCain

It was his Dukakis of the election. It just made him look old and grumpy.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

27. This Was One Of Many Factors That Cost Him At Least A Respectable Defeat

It was the debates (all 3 of them). It was the "I don't know how many houses I own" thing. It was the "fundamentals of the economy are strong" thing. It was the "that one" comment. It was lots and lots of stuff. Then to have the idiot Palin blowing it for him at every turn was just the icing on the cake.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

25. Closer, maybe

However, a lot of the Republicans would've probably revolted at the idea and stayed home on Election Day and McCain would've still lost. For all of his faults, Lieberman was/is more progressive than even the 2008 Republican Party base. Politically, it would've been disastrous for Lieberman too had he lost and had to crawl back to the Senate and basically become a real "party of one" too. I don't think that McCain could've won in 2008 no matter what but had he picked a slightly more *competent* person for VP, the election could've been closer since Palin ended up being a deciding factor AGAINST McCain for a lot of people, particularly disenchanted Republicans.

[LiberalAndProud]

28. No.

McCain didn't stand a chance. Not even a little. His campaign was a snoozer from the beginning. (Remember the green screen?) The only thing that made his campaign remotely interesting was the bubblehead that he chose for a running mate. Lieberman is not a vote getter (ask Al).

[mistertrickster]

46. Well, I think Lieberman did help Gore in the critical state of Florida, even

though a lot voters ended up voting for Buchanan because of the confusing "butterfly ballot."

[LiberalAndProud]

49. I would disagree with your assessment.

When Lieberman was named, most voters said "who?" He wasn't an asset for Al Gore (who could have used someone to help counteract the "wooden" meme.) And McCain's biggest problem was that he is old, and there's not a damn thing a running mate can do to change that.

[mistertrickster]

50. Makes sense . . . you might be right. nt

[JPZenger]

29. No, but Al Gore would have won 2000 if he had picked Graham as VP

We all know that Al Gore really won the 2000 election. However, he easily could have won the 2000 election without question if he had picked Graham as his VP instead of Lieberman.

At the time, Graham was very very popular in Florida. He would have attracted enough votes and turnout in Florida to overcome the irregularities. Graham also had the credentials to be VP, which Lieberman did not.

Lieberman added absolutely nothing to the ticket.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

31. I Always Thought His Choice Of Lieberman Was A Fatal Mistake...........

..........but according to a very knowledgable right-wing friend, it was actually the best choice he could have made. I can't remember why he thinks that, but he said that in his opinion, the selection of Lieberman was the strongest pick Gore could have made. I always thought Gore should have taken either Gephardt or John Kerry (as was rumored to be his second choice). Graham would have been a good choice too. I'm not a huge fan of Gephardt, but I've always thought Kerry should have taken Gephardt as HIS running mate too.

[Ikonoklast]

33. Gore needed someone not from the NE.

When I heard Lieberman was the veep pick, I thought it was over right then for Gore.

[Lucinda]

30. I think Palin actually gave McCain a boost - so no

He was looking pretty same old same old until she popped into the campaign

[MiniMe]

32. She probably did at first

And then people started paying attention to what she was saying. After that, she didn't help at all.

[Lucinda]

35. Every Rep I know loved her then

It was only in our world that she was considered a liability.

[BlueDemKev]

37. WHO CARES???

[MadHound]

38. No, because then the right wing base wouldn't have turned out for him.

The fact of the matter is that McCain was the sacrificial lamb for the 'Pugs in '08. They knew as well as we did that after Bush, Jesus Christ could have run on the 'Pug ticket and wouldn't have run. McCain was left on the horns of a dilemma. He could either choose another moderate conservative like himself, and thus suppress the right wing whacko vote, which he needed. Or he could take the route he did take, naming a right wing whacko as his running mate, thus insuring that the right wing whacko vote would turn out, but shutting the pocketbooks of his big money backers and thus, as we see, losing.

Nobody could have won on the 'Pug ticket, not coming in after Bush.

[SidDithers]

39. No, he would have lost by an even bigger margin...

if anything, Palin made the race closer than it would have otherwise have been.

Sid

[mistertrickster]

44. He did get a bump in the polls after Palin at least initially. nt

[WI_DEM]

40. Anybody who thinks McCain lost only due to Palin wasn't paying attention

McCain sunk his own campaign by running a lousy campaign--and the stunt he pulled during the financial crisis and "suspending his campaign"--that is where he really began to fall when people got a look at him up close. Also, like it or not, Palin excited the right wing base--look at her crowds compared to McCain's. If McCain had selected a nominal democrat there would have been a floor fight at the convention and many on the right would have sat out the election.

[blondeatlast]

41. No. nt

[MineralMan]

43. Very doubtful.

The baggers wouldn't have liked it and wouldn't have shown up in the numbers that did.

[davidthegnome]

47. I highly doubt it

I can't say for a certainty, as it didn't actually happen. Still, McCain isn't particularly well loved among the further right and fundamentalist Christians, a good part of his campaign was trying to convince them he was something he wasn't. Lieberman? I guess he'd carry some support from either side, but the majority in both parties (to my knowledge) think of him as a colossal douche bag or a useful tool, depending on the situation.

No, I don't think they would have won.

[JI7]

48. Jewish voters vote Democratic, they didn't even support Lieberman during the Primary

it's like republicans thinking alan keyes would win black voters or michael steele would help them with black voters.

McCain would have lost even more since he wouldn't have gotten the wingnut racists and other bigots who voted for him only because of palin.