How the Tea Party wins in 2012

[Hugabear]

The Tea Party may not represent a majority in this country, or anywhere even close to it. But they do have one thing going for them, passion. Doesn't matter if their passion is misplaced, if it's based on hatred and fear, it's still a very fervent passion. And they are united. Yes, there is a lot of squabbling going on at the local level over which Tea Party is the "real" Tea Party (at least here in Orlando), but when it comes to the state and federal level, they're pretty much united. At least, a lot more so than we are, and even the non-Tea Party rethugs.

There are a few things, that if combined, could very well result in a Tea Party White House in 2012:

1. Voter apathy, particularly among Democrats and independents. You don't have to look very far here on DU to see how much dissatisfaction there is with Obama.
2. Third party candidate, particularly if it's a left-leaning candidate like Nader, Kucinich, etc. Depending on how strong that candidate is, it could wind up like 1992, only this time we're the ones getting screwed.
3. Election fraud - The GOP establishment might not be crazy about a Tea Party nominee, but if that's who they wind up with, they'll do what they can to help them win. They've had plenty of practice, they know how to pull votes out of thin air.

And if one still isn't convinced that a Tea Party candidate would have a chance, just ask people in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and a few other states. I know that here in Florida, this time a year ago most people would have laughed in your face if you had said Rick Scott would be their next governor.

[RZM]

1. I'd be surprised if the Republican candidate is someone in the top tier of Tea Party favorites

The 'enthusiasm gap' between the bases may end up being miniscule. Obama's hovering around 50 percent approval right now. That's pretty good going into a re-election campaign.

[emulatorloo]

4. Obama is gaining with sane independents too

Additionally the Republicans aren't doing themselves any favor with this shutdown battle. Really highlights what the teabagger Reps are all about.

[whattheidonot]

5. wrong economy

I think it is the wrong economy for a tea party win. It will probably be Obama by default. if after 30 years of little wage growth a tea party person wins then you get what you deserve.

[Jmaxfie1]

9. Me too, their best chance for winning would be Romney and he is hated by the Tea Party people.

In a fight between Romney and Obama, I think Obama would win. The problem would be that versus Romney, Obama may go further to the Right than he already has. If they put up some Tea Party nut (which I so hope they do), he would feel much less threatened and may even shift Leftward.

[RZM]

12. Obama will campaign from the center no matter his opponent

The time to go leftward would be after he wins.

[Jmaxfie1]

14. True, I'm just hoping he remembers the go leftward after he wins part :) n/t

[RZM]

16. Conservatives are certainly convinced he will

They've been saying that from the beginning. We'll see I guess. I just hope that if he does win he doesn't punt on some of the most important issues. I'd like to see real discussions and actual policy initiatives on drug laws, gay marriage, illegal immigration, and defense spending . . . for starters.

[Jmaxfie1]

17. I can see him doing something on immigration, but the others I think he will stay away from...

again, hope I'm wrong.

[MadMaddie]

2. Tea Party Fails in 2012

1. Voter apathy, particularly among Democrats and independents. You don't have to look very far here on DU to see how much dissatisfaction there is with Obama.

Rebuttal:
1. Wisconsin has proven that the days of voter Apathy is over. You cannot rely on DU as a marker to make this generalization. Recalls in Wisconsin and potentially others states will change the outcome too.

The Republicans in WA have overstepped their bounds especially with the social issues stopping the budget process, they can't walk back from what they have done.

2. Third party candidate, particularly if it's a left-leaning candidate like Nader, Kucinich, etc. Depending on how strong that candidate is, it could wind up like 1992, only this time we're the ones getting screwed.

Candidates like Nader and Kucinich will blow their wad before anything serious happens. They get crazier and crazier and people will turn against them.


3. Election fraud - The GOP establishment might not be crazy about a Tea Party nominee, but if that's who they wind up with, they'll do what they can to help them win. They've had plenty of practice, they know how to pull votes out of thin air.

Future Tea Party Candidates will not walk into any position in the future, they have proven that they are petty and juvinille and have no respect for the Constitution.

[Hugabear]

3. I hope you're right

I really do. But history shows that we can't simply dismiss the possibility out of hand.

[LiberalFighter]

8. I say that we ridicule Teabaggers any time possible and tie them

in with idiotic beliefs.

[FrenchieCat]

6. You forgot Citizens United and Media bias leaning GOP!

Those two things by themselves gives crazy bat-shit assholes teabaggers the edge.

[spanone]

7. i'm not convinced one iota.

[Shagbark Hickory]

10. When you say "tea party"... Don't you really just mean "angry republicans?"

They don't differ from the republicans on many issues. They never support a democrat but they do support republicans.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jtown1123]

13. Election fraud is such a huge non-issue

[Hugabear]

24. You honestly, truly believe that?

After what we've seen in Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, and what we're seeing in Wisconsin right now?

[madinmaryland]

15. One and two are not an issue. Number three could be.

I don't see voter apathy on the democratic side as an issue, especially if a teabagger is nominated by the repukes.

Third party candidates. Nader has seen his time and will not be a factor, and neither will Kucinich. Outside of DU, Kucinich has little name recognition.

Election fraud and/or massive corporate sponsorship are the biggest worries that I have about the 2012 election.

[Zoeisright]

18. I doubt that.

I think there are going to be a LOT of righteously angry people next year, and it's not going to be a small artificial turf movement whipped up by a couple of billionaires.

[mtnester]

19. I'll take #3 for $500 Alex

that is the other phase of obtaining these local state offices...Ohio will be 2004 dejavu all over again...it worked the first time, it will work again.

[Taverner]

20. I pity those who don't take heed from this

I rec'd it, which brought it up to, um, zero.

I assume anyone who unrecced it is either (1) A Freeper Troll who knows we're on to them or (2) someone haughty and in denial so much, that they can't even consider that we might not win in 2012.

As works in every election, GOTV or Get Out The Vote is the key. Democrats don't win because people like them, they win because people vote for them.

[Fire1]

21. And if they do it's WAR FOREVER! n/t

[AsahinaKimi]

22. The first female POTUS

Michele Bachmann?? No Freaking Way! Never... Zenzen arimasen! Dameyo!!! Jodanjanaiyo!

[Hugabear]

25. Margaret Thatcher was the UK's first female prime minister

It would be highly ironic if our first female president was someone who wanted to set womens' rights back a few hundred years.

[AsahinaKimi]

27. highly ironic

and a tragedy beyond the pale.

[andym]

23. They're winning now

They want the shutdown. They hate government. A bad economy in 2012 is their friend (which will be helped along by the shutdown.)

[davidthegnome]

26. A scary thought

I'm really hoping that you overestimate their popularity and potential power. They're a small group of fanatics - but given the proper positions of authority... Christ, like the fucking Nazis all over again, except this time, with NUCLEAR fucking power and enough missiles and bombs to burn the world to shit a hundred times over.

These people are NUTS. They will not compromise or see reason, if we permit them to take power... the last ten years? Will be nothing in comparison. I seriously would make my own frigging pitch fork if I thought that was a possibility. Those people scare the hell out of me.

(Edited for spelling. I blame the wine.)