Fuzzy Math Doesn’t Add Up in Wisconsin Race

[demwing]

GAB is sending staff to Waukesha County to review vote totals for the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race after Clerk Kathy Nickolaus’ announced yesterday that she left the city of Brookfield off of the totals she initially reported...She “found” 14,000 votes yesterday, which led to a net 7,500 votes in favor of Prosser, who now leads at 7,319. This total gets Prosser just over the 5%, under which the state will pay for a recount. However, there’s a problem with these found votes; Nickolaus’ math doesn’t add up.

According to the 2010 census, there are 38,649 living in Brookfield. Of these Male 48.4% Female 51.6%, Median Age 42...Most of the media has been focusing on the 38,649 number, which — given a 33% turnout over all — would yield about the 14,000 votes reported...But the "voting age and over" population for Brookfield is 73.2%. This yields a possible voting base of 28,291.

So, let’s assume all of the 28,291 were registered. The figures don’t add up: Statewide turnout —and in the rest of Waukesha county — was 33%. Even assuming that all 28,291 over the age of 18 were registered voters, that 33% turnout — which was reported as very high — would have yielded no more than 9,430 votes.

http://www.politicususa.com/en/wisconsin-math

If the trend trend in Waukesha held in Brookfield (75% Prosser / 25% Koppenburg) then that 9430 votes would have been distrubuted as follows: 7,073 for Prosser, 2357 for Kloppenburg, with a 4716 difference. Thats well within the fee recount area.

[Blue Owl]

1. K & R

Thanks for your post -- please send it to the Kloppenburg campaign lawyer!

:kick:

[Towlie]

48. I wish I could say Nate Silver agrees, but unfortunately he doesn't.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/vote-counting-error-in-wisconsin-points-to-incompetence-not-conspiracy/

[midnight]

2. Great info...

[buddysmellgood]

3. Ah ha ha ha....it just continues to stink

[drm604]

4. It's almost as if someone tried to make the percentage fall in line with the overall 33%

but didn't think it through and based it on the entire population rather than just those of voting age.

[The Magistrate]

5. An Interesting Point, Sir

[Mnemosyne]

7. Excellent point, drm. n/t

[JDPriestly]

49. What percentage of those of voting age are registered to vote?

Or is there instant registration in Wisconsin?

Is it possible that she reported the 14,000 to the local newspaper on Tuesday evening knowing it was not correct but did not report it to AP in order to avoid drawing attention to the number. Is it possible she figured that she could easily tell the local paper that the 14,000 was in error -- was too high -- if that number was not needed?

Of course, it is possible that the whole thing is perfectly correct and that she really did just make a mistake and didn't report a correct number to the AP.

[pnwmom]

6. So to get 14,000 votes, they'd need to register 100% of eligibles, with 50% turnout.

Or, if only 75% were registered (which is still high), then they'd need 67% turnout.

This situation gets smellier and smellier.

[demwing]

32. Exactly. AND, we're supposed to believe that this PHENOMENAL turnout ONLY occurred

in the city the REPUBLICANS forgot to count?

[PeaceNikki]

33. Oh look.... ACTUAL data:

Pretty red, huh? Not a blue town/city in the mix. Also note the total votes for Brookfield in November - 21k:



Here's the link to source data: http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/results/2010/fall-general/ward

[demwing]

35. Wow, such snark

I withold further response. Enjoy

[PeaceNikki]

37. No, I don't find it "staggering" because the voting patterns of this county and that city are

consistent and because of the political climate here in the past 2 months. The people of Brookfield (and Waukesha) used this as a confidence vote on Gov. Scott Walker.

Nate Silver gets it:

About the makeup of these people
"...the county doesn’t have very many unionized workers, and is dominated by white-collar private businesses like General Electric , which has a large complex there. Union workers, especially in the public sector, probably had the most at stake in the judicial election, since the winner is likely to be called on to rule on the controversial legislation that state Republicans passed to roll back collective bargaining rights."

And the variance from the norm of private sector employees:
"It turns out that about 7.5 percent of the employed population in Waukesha County works for state or local government, as compared with 11 percent for Wisconsin as a whole."

[pacalo]

45. I have to give you an A+ for your steadfastness. Unless you were there working alongside Nickolaus,

there are so many reasons to keep an open mind regarding election fraud.

There have been a number of IT's who are very skeptical & have been convincing about Nickolaus' questionable methods. They've posted on DU & on Daily Kos.

Please understand that there are plenty of good reasons for us to be skeptical, considering the political climate in Wisconsin, & don't deserve snarky comments.

[PeaceNikki]

46. I have repeatedly said:

"I stand by my assertion that this was a grave error on her part. I think they very well could find evidence of corruption and fraud, I just don't buy that it's tied to those Brookfield votes. I think that was a terrible mistake that she regrets because it has now shone a light on her."

And "snark" is in the eye of the beholder.

[pacalo]

55. It is indeed in the eye of the beholder -- & the list of beholders is growing.

[dems_rightnow]

38. Don't blame you.

Fun statistics take a backseat very quickly to actual data.

[pacalo]

57. Do you have a background in IT?

Here are a few opinions from IT experts, plus links for public figures who call bullshit on Ms. Nickolaus:

First the IT threads:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/07/964645/-Kathy-Nickolaus-in-Waukesha-forgot-to-saveReally

Wisconsin clerk's explanation - MAJOR RED FLAGS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=842014&mesg_id=842014

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/08/964647/-Do-Not-Use-Microsoft-Access-for-Elections

Threads regarding opinions of public figures:

Rep. Baldwin {D, WI} Asks Feds To Investigate Waukesha Co.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=4807513

Citizen Action of WI is calling for a fed investigation into Waukesha County votes
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=439&topic_id=839936

Daily Kos diarist's husband used to work with Kathy Nickolaus
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=439&topic_id=840911

The Kloppenburg campaign is filing open records requests.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=439&topic_id=839782

[JDPriestly]

51. I could not find that page.

Do you have a better link?

[NYC_SKP]

8. K&R. (nt)

[girl gone mad]

9. Nothing fishy, eh?

Yeah, right.

[Enthusiast]

10. I know what happened.

The filthy fucking Republicans cheated again. Prove me wrong!

[uponit7771]

11. This is the SECOND election in which Kathy Nickolaus "found" votes and 50% turnout for a judge

...is almost unheard of.

I pray the facts are laid bear quickly

[boston bean]

12. Really good article and comments! thanks demwing

[PeaceNikki]

13. You know that Brookfield released their numbers Tuesday night, right?

There will be a hand recount and every ballot will be looked at by a human being.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

31. Actually early Wednesday morning

in case that makes a difference down the line

[Control-Z]

44. "...every ballot will be looked at by a human being"?

So there will be no republicans involved in the recount?

[JDPriestly]

52. That in itself would not mean much.

The votes will have to be recounted.

[pintobean]

14. This might help

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119519294.html

[PeaceNikki]

16. Obviously that journalist is part of the big conspiracy, yo.

Thankfully the GAB and Kloppenburg campaigns are investigating and confirming tape totals. Then after certification we'll get to look at every paper ballot.

[Ellipsis]

17. Maybe she's been doing it for 15 years.

[pintobean]

18. She was first elected as county clerk in 2002

[itsrobert]

42. My thoughts

She been rigging the vote for years.

[Cresent City Kid]

15. And this is just a preseason game

How does a concerned public go about getting independent election monitoring from the UN?

[Nikia]

19. How many municipal votes were there?

I know that not everyone votes for every office but these numbers should be close or at least correlate with other local/state elections.

[PeaceNikki]

20. *gasp* you mean they should count the official tapes and then look at every ballot?

Oh wait, those things are called "certification" and a "recount" and are being done.

[BeFree]

21. We'll see

Or they will hide it.

There persists a pattern of corruption in the casual way the vote is counted.
I figure the politicians are all in cover up mode.
Three days later and there is still no solid official report on this problem?

[PeaceNikki]

22. uh, technically it's been one full day.

Election was Tuesday, certification began Wed - problem was discovered, continued Thursday and confirmed Brookfield's #'s were missing, GAB notified, press conference... Friday GAB said they won't certify and until full investigation is complete, which they have started. They have a couple weeks to certify.

[BeFree]

23. Couple of weeks?

Great, gives them lots of time for a good cover up.

That last thing the politicians want is people questioning how the votes are counted.
We will never know the truth.

Because the truth is our votes are and have been treated too casually.

[PeaceNikki]

24. Taking time to do it right is important. In recount, every ballot will be looked at by human eyes.

[BeFree]

25. Let's hope so... but

I have little faith in how our votes are handled.

I know too much. I've seen how the politicians have covered up any number of stolen votes.

But you keep on them, and let us know what they are doing up there, k?
They need to know people are looking over their shoulders.

[PeaceNikki]

26. If there's one thing y'all have gotten a taste of in the past 8 weeks, it's how awesome WI Dems are.

We're fired up and they know it.

THIS is why I think the case of the Brookfield votes WAS a mistake. A dumb incompetent mistake. They HAD to know it would launch a full investigation.

GAB is investigating with a fine-tooth comb. The Kloppenburg campaign is investigating with an even finer tooth comb. And there will be a recount in which every ballot is looked at with human eyeballs.

If this asshole wanted to throw the election to Prosser, this is about the stupidest way she could have done it. Anyone with access to city and county vote totals and a calculator would discover it in 5 minutes once the error was announced.

BUT it MUST and WILL be thoroughly investigated. Incompetence to that degree is as bad as fraud. That woman is responsible for *MY* vote and I want answers and I want a fine-tooth comb to see if she's made other mistakes and/or actually acting nefariously. This alleged mistake has opened her up to a deep deep dive that I am sure she didn't want. If she so much as forgot to cross a "t", we'll find it.

[BeFree]

28. First time for everything

Maybe they are finally going to uncover all the dirty little secrets?

Maybe the Wisconsin Dems will get the whole truth and nothing but?

Maybe we finally turn a corner on how our votes are mishandled?

Count me in.

[PeaceNikki]

29. GAB isn't afraid to call shenanigans.

And the GOP hate them for it:
http://uppitywis.org/wi-elect-board-hits-doj-gop-voter-suppression-effort

so there's that. :)

[eridani]

59. Why that outright lie "I forgot to save"?

Access autosaves. If this was just a stupid error, then she didn't enter the data in the first place. Wondering why she just didn't say that in the first place? The end result would have been the same.

Luckily, it will get sorted out because of having paper ballots.

[slackmaster]

27. This kind of analysis would be a lot more meaningful if it was directed at an official vote tally

:argh:

[Ellipsis]

30. I would hope the ballots have been secured.

...chain of custody and all. This won't take long to hand count.

I'm glad GAB has delayed the certification. It's allowing all the background on Prosser , Jensen and Nickolaus to get national attention.

[Jack Rabbit]

34. Kathy Nikolaus news conference: April 12, 2011 (next Tuesday)

The GAB has reviewed the voting procedures and determined that the 14,000 missing were in fact in the original total and were therefore counted twice. My bad. It was just a human error. It happens all the time. This is a recording.

[Logical]

36. Maybe I am gullible but I think it was an honest mistake. n-t

[PeaceNikki]

39. No, you're being logical.

;)

[Logical]

40. LOL...thanks! :-)

[buddysmellgood]

41. My problem is that it is not an honest mistake. She appears to be lying

about not saving. Maybe the mistake is that she never entered it at all. I don't know, but I think she is lying about something.

[Logical]

43. I think she is incompetent at least. And needs to be fired. n-t

[Zebedeo]

60. She did not say that she did not save

She said that she did hit "save" repeatedly throughout the night.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

62. Nickolaus "manually corrected" Waukesha's votes in 2006

I posted this down thread but thought you might like to see it.

EXCERPT from The Complaint of Voter Action Wisconsin by Mike B. Wittenwyler, complainant, Against the State Elections Board
(Wittenwyler is a Madison lawyer and Russ Feingold’s 1998 campaign manager)

VERIFIED COMPLAINT
5.37, 5.40, 5.91, AND THE WISCONSIN CONSTITUTION, ART III, SEC 3

11. DRE systems proved to be unreliable in Waukesha County in the September 2006 primary. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinal reported that the Sequoia DRE systems failed due to "computer glitches, inoperable equipment and other problems: See Scott Williams, Waukesha County Voting Bedeviled, Milwaukee Journal Sentinal, September 13, 2006.

EXHIBIT 10. County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus "resorted to correcting the city's results manually - a process that continued until 1 a.m." Id. Similar delays occurred in Winnebago County where DRE vote totals also had to be entered manually. Editorial: Touch Screen's Trial Tenuous as Best in Winnebago County, Oshkosh Northwestern, September 14, 2006

http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=10998&lo...

[AllyCat]

47. Yeah, this is looking more and more like she did the math later

and came up with some number that just looked like a photo finish. I think the Repubs made a huge mistake allowing this lady to come up with their magical votes. She is an idiot. She's on their side, but more of an idiot than they needed.

I hope and pray they are going down.

[Zorra]

50. Brookfield turnout was 53% according to local paper. Link here:

Unofficial, unaudited results showed 76 percent of city residents who voted picked Prosser, with 24 percent voting for challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg.

That translated to a city voting turnout of about 53 percent, the city's second-highest for a spring election since 2001, but nowhere near the 79 percent turnout for the gubernatorial race last November.

http://brookfield-wi.patch.com/articles/brookfield-gives-prosser-nearly-11k-votes

[gkhouston]

53. A 79% turnout? That seems unlikely, even in a hotly contested race.

Someone should take an extremely close look at what's happening in Waukesha.

[Zorra]

54. Apparently, Brookfield is a wealthy community. Median income is $85,000.

That's astoundingly high, almost double the median income for the state of Wisconsin. Population is 39,000.

The 79% figure does seem awfully high, but it may be genuine for Brookfield.

[Tx4obama]

56. Here's an article that everyone should read

Excerpt:

Reviews of the election turnout statistics by Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver show that the revised Waukesha results appear more plausible than those initially reported. As Gilbert wrote, the addition of nearly 15,000 votes "puts that county's turnout rate more in line with the neighboring GOP strongholds of Ozaukee and Washington counties."

Full article and chart here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/09/wisconsin-election-bombshell_n_847000.html

[rufus dog]

58. good - go audit Ozaukee and Washington Counties too

can snag a few more crooks over there.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

61. Kathy Nickolaus" MANUALLY CORRECTED" Waukesha Co. Votes in 2006

WINNEBAGO County also entered results manually...

EXCERPT fton The Complaint of Voter Action Wisconsin by Mike B. Wittenwyler, complainent, AGAINST the State Elections Board
(Wittenwyler is a Madison lawyer and Russ Feingold’s 1998 campaign manager)

VERIFIED COMPLAINT
5.37, 5.40, 5.91, AND THE WISCONSIN CONSTITUTION, ART III, SEC 3

11. DRE systems proved to be unreliable in Waukesha County in the September 2006 primary. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinal reported that the Sequoia DRE systems failed due to "computer glitches, inoperable equipment and other problems: See Scott Williams, Waukesha County Voting Bedeviled, Milwaukee Journal Sentinal, September 13, 2006.

EXHIBIT 10. County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus "resorted to correcting the city's results manually - a process that continued until 1 a.m." Id. Similar delays occurred in Winnebago County where DRE vote totals also had to be entered manually. Editorial: Touch Screen's Trial Tenuous as Best in Winnebago County, Oshkosh Northwestern, September 14, 2006

http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=10998&locid=47

[Blue Owl]

63. Whatever it is that went wrong...

the details are very CLOUDY which provides a smokescreen behind which "things" could occur.