Prosser outperformed other Republican candidates in Waukesha County in recent history

[Bjorn Against]

We have all heard that Waukesha County is a solid Republican county and it is true, Republicans tend to win there by large margins in almost every election. Simply saying Waukesha is a heavily Republican county however means nothing, we need to look at exactly how many votes Republicans have received there in recent history if we are going to determine whether Prosser's numbers add up.

I checked out election results going back to 2000, during Presidential years I looked at the results for the Presidential election and non-presidential years I looked at the results for Governor. Here is what I found:

http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=2200&locid=47">2000: Bush gets 65% of the vote
http://165.189.88.185/docview.asp?docid=1561&locid=47">2002: McCallum gets 62% of the vote
http://165.189.88.185/docview.asp?docid=1416&locid=47">2004: Bush gets 67% of the vote
http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=10029&locid=47">2006: Green gets 63% of the vote
http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15385&locid=47">2008: McCain gets 62% of the vote
http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/County_by_County_Final_November_12_16_10.pdf">2010: Walker gets 71% of the vote
http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110215_unofficial_results_summary.pdf">2011: Prosser gets 74% of the vote

While these numbers may not be completely implausible, considering all the other red flags raised in Waukesha County this election it does seem like it is worth noting that Prosser outperformed other Republicans in recent history during a year in which anger with Wisconsin Republicans is higher than it has been in years. This may be circumstantial evidence, but piled with the mountain of other circumstantial evidence that is accumulating this gives us yet one more reason that we need an investigation.

[dsc]

1. wouldn't you have to compare to local elections, which is what this was

I can easily see people who are on our side in that county deciding not to vote on local elections as it would be futile. I would expect he would have done slightly worse than those elections.

[Bjorn Against]

2. This was not a local election, it was a statewide election

[dsc]

28. of a sort

but not governor or senator.

[Zynx]

3. For a comparable election, Gableman got 66% in 2008.

[dsc]

27. that is still a presidential year

[Zynx]

29. There was no presidential election (primary or otherwise) on that ballot.

It certainly wasn't presidential turnout.

I'm not making any accusation as I really don't believe much in systemic voter fraud, but it's probably as good a comparison as anything. Gableman won statewide by a fairly narrow margin against the incumbent, Louis Butler and the close margins in that election are worth looking at as comparables.

[PeaceNikki]

4. Nate Silver gets it. The people of Waukesha County used this as a confidence vote on Walker

Just like the heavy union/public sector areas used it as a tool to protest.

About the makeup of these people
"...the county doesn’t have very many unionized workers, and is dominated by white-collar private businesses like General Electric , which has a large complex there. Union workers, especially in the public sector, probably had the most at stake in the judicial election, since the winner is likely to be called on to rule on the controversial legislation that state Republicans passed to roll back collective bargaining rights."

And the variance from the norm of private sector employees:
"It turns out that about 7.5 percent of the employed population in Waukesha County works for state or local government, as compared with 11 percent for Wisconsin as a whole."

[Bjorn Against]

6. There are many reasons his numbers could be higher, just one of which is fraud

As I said this is circumstantial evidence, but we have a mountain of circumstantial evidence piling up and we deserve a real investigation. Maybe there are less public employees in Waukesha as a whole, but it is not just public employees that are upset and it does seem a bit odd that this would be the election that the Republicans perform best in. Not impossible, but certainly odd and there are way too many odd things that happened in Waukesha County to not be suspicious.

[PeaceNikki]

8. Yes, and investigations are happening.

But by and large this is a VERY white-collar, wealthy community.

[Zynx]

30. Not to mention it's full of religious nuts.

[Ellipsis]

46. They have religious bowling cults...

They do!!

They share communion with the holy brandy old fashion(sweet where I come from).

[EmmettKelly]

5. Maybe the T-bag/GOP was energized by the recent

events at the Capital in Madison. It could work both ways you know.

[PeaceNikki]

7. Exactly, in a VERY red county, this is exactly what happened.

Do that analysis on many other counties where there are heavy unions or significant amounts of public workers per capita and you'll see an even greater shift Dem.

[BeFree]

31. "....exactly what happened.""

Then we don't need an investigation?

The very fact that the vote counting corruption or as some call it - ineptness - has existed for so long in Wakeshua is reason to not trust the vote counting part of the government there.

Anywho..... it is disconcerting to read this claims that "...this is exactly what happened."

No one has grounds to make such a claim... but there it is, in it's fox like glory.

[PeaceNikki]

32. sigh

Read what I replied to:

"...the T-bag/GOP was energized by the recent events at the Capital in Madison."

And further explained in the subthread right here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=855107&mesg_id=855143

I have never ever EVER said that there is no need to investigate. Quite the contrary.

"I stand by my assertion that this was a grave error on her part. I think they very well could find evidence of corruption and fraud, I just don't buy that it's tied to those Brookfield votes. I think that was a terrible mistake that she regrets because it has now shone a light on her."

[BeFree]

33. I know

But your words are what your words are "exactly what happened."

You don't know "exactly what happened." So why even write such?

[PeaceNikki]

34. Because I know my neighbors, co-workers, community, voting habits, and the demographics here.

Nate Silver provided the data that supports my anecdotal evidence.

[BeFree]

35. So you are the expert?

And so why haven't your neighbors gotten rid of this 'Niklous'(sp) character?

How is she is still around to fuck up yet another election?

Sorry, but from where I sit your 'hood needs some serious intervention.

No more of this "this is exactly what happened" BS, please.

We all know elections have been stolen at every opportunity and this was just another example of the corruption and shenanigans. Excuse me if I don't trust the locals there, for they have been enablers and conspirators and are to blame for this spectacular discombobulation of simple math.

If there is any "this is exactly what happened" it is that votes are being manipulated.

Will they ever get to the bottom of it and flesh out the truth? There is no reason to have any confidence that will happen. They will continue to hide from us "exactly what happened."

[PeaceNikki]

36. I will say whatever I want and have confidence in whatever I want.

No, I don't claim to be an "expert", but I know more about this community than people who have never been here, no? I was born and raised here. Have you ever even heard of Waukesha County or Brookfield before this? Doubt it. Have you marched in Madison since this started? I have. Have you participated in local recall efforts here? I have.

Look, you have put words into my mouth and thrown out ridiculous strawman arguments implying I am defending this clerk and/or don't want an investigation and you're totally wrong. Let's review the things I think you and I agree on:

1) We TOTALLY want Kloppenburg to win.
2) The Waukesha County Clerk is a corrupt asshole
3) This needs to be thoroughly investigated
4) A recount with FULL hand count MUST happen
5) Any and all corruption or fraud needs to be fully exposed and prosecuted if found


See... that's a lot, no? The things that we disagree about are ALL theorectical. We disagree about what did happen, what people's motives might have been and what will happen. All of these things will either be worked out or we'll flat out never know. Stop acting like I I don't care. I care more than you can ever comprehend. Stop acting like I am defending this county clerk, I am not and I will not. Ever. Stop with the strawmman arguments that I think we should not investigate, I've made my opinion very clear on that. Stop implying that I am a "troll" because I don't agree with every specific theory to which you subscribe.

I will continue to shoot down wild and crazy theories made by people who don't understand the processes or people here in WI, specifically my community. I was born and raised here. Similarily, I concede that I don't know EVERYTHING and have learned some things AND admitted I was wrong when corrected. But I assure you, I *know* the makeup of this community and Nate Silver clearly gets it, too.

[BeFree]

37. Right

I made this up?: "...this is exactly what happened." No, wait, no I didn't.

Nor did I call you a troll. I merely stated that I don't trust the same people who have allowed this to get where it is now. If you played a part, well, then that's that. If you didn't then that's that.

From where I sit, I doubt any of us will ever know: this is exactly what happened.
No need to get your panties in a twist.

However, if so inclined, there is a very nice target in your 'hood, eh?

[PeaceNikki]

38. Whatever.

I see the yard signs, the commercials, the bumper stickers. I work with the people of Waukesha County, I shop with the people of Waukesha county, I socialize with the people of Waukesha County, I drink and dine with the people of Waukesha County. I know the people of Waukesha County. And I even VOTE alongside (not using the word "with" here!) the people of Waukesha County. I can say with certainty that they overwhelmingly support Walker, Prosser, this BULLSHIT. Do I like it? No. Am I working to do my best to change it? Yes. But there it is.

[Tresalisa]

43. ---

:applause:

Thank you, PeaceNikki! Keep on keeping on!

[Bjorn Against]

9. Possible, but we need an investigation to determine the cause.

I never said fraud was the only possible reason Prosser's numbers could be higher, but there have been too many suspicious factors surrounding the vote in Waukesha County to just look away and pretend this is innocent. If there was not evidence of any suspicious activity I would tend to believe an analysis like yours and it is still possible you are right, but considering all we have seen I find these numbers suspect.

[PeaceNikki]

10. Why do you keep trying to act like you have to prove the need to do something they are already doing

?

[Bjorn Against]

11. Because right now there is not a real investigation looking at everything that needs to be looked at

I have yet to hear about any plans for a forensic analysis of Nicklaus' computer, and as of right now it is uncertain we will even get a hand count of the paper ballots.

[PeaceNikki]

12. Of course the recount "plans" aren't laid out because certification isn't complete.

Certification isn't complete because they are JUST starting the investigation.

[Bjorn Against]

13. As even you acknowledged in the previous thread, we can't get a hand count without a judge's order

Without a hand count those paper ballots mean nothing. I want a forensic analysis of her computer as well because it is clear that she was not handling election procedures according to standards, these are the people's votes and people have the right to know how their votes are being counted.

[PeaceNikki]

14. We can't get a recount at ALL without a "judge's order".

And that petition will include a hand count. And it will be granted. Watch.

[Bjorn Against]

17. Actually we can get a machine recount without a judge's order, but not a hand recount

I know you have seen this section of law before, but I am posting it again so everyone knows what the law says in order to underscore the importance of why we need to fight for a hand recount and not just "watch" as you suggest.

10. Programming
Optical Scan tabulating equipment may be reprogrammed to count only votes cast in the office being recounted, or only the votes cast for a referendum if the recount concerns a referendum question. After being retested in Step #8 by the board of canvassers and the candidates or their representatives, the ballots will be re-tabulated by the optical scan equipment. The ballots may not be hand counted without a court order. Wis. Stat. § 5.90(2).

Recount initiators may petition the court for a recount to be conducted by hand, though the law specifies that the burden of proof is on the petitioner to demonstrate why a hand count should be enforced. Otherwise, the default counting method is the same as that used in the initial canvass: paper ballots are counted by hand; optical scan ballots are retabulated on an automatic tabulator; and for votes cast on direct-recording electronic machines (DREs), the voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) is detached and counted by hand. See pages 7-13 of Wisconsin's Election Recount Procedures Manual for a full description of counting methods: http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=2127&locid=47

[PeaceNikki]

18. The recount petition itself goes to a judge, no?

On edit, no it looks like it goes to an election officer.

[Bjorn Against]

19. Maybe it goes to a judge, but you don't have to argue your case to a judge for a machine count

If a candidate requests a machine recount they can get a machine recount under Wisconsin law, if the margin is too large they may have to pay for that recount but it will be granted. The law to get a hand recount is much more stringent, you actually have to go in front of a judge and convince him or her that a machine count is not sufficient and a hand count is necessary. There is no burden of proof required to get a machine recount, but to get a hand recount the burden of proof is on the candidate to show a hand count is necessary.

[PeaceNikki]

20. This is also interesting

Both sides must be given the opportunity to object and provide offers of evidence on

*any ballot cast at the election

Wouldn't that imply they would be allowed to inspect all ballots?

:shrug:

Also see:

7. The board of canvassers or tabulators then carefully counts the votes on each paper ballot.

Again, how isn't that a hand count?

[Bjorn Against]

21. On the first point that would be a good argument for a lawyer to make

The law does clearly say that a hand count must ordered by a judge or else the votes would be tabulated by machine, considering they run the paper ballot through the machine the judge would most likely consider that a count of the paper ballot even though it is not hand counted.

I will give you the first point though as a really good argument, there does seem to be a conflict with the way the law is written there and a good lawyer may be able to argue that they do not have a real opportunity to inspect each ballot without a hand count. That is very likely one of the arguments Kloppenburg's lawyer will use when arguing for a hand count, we just have to hope the judge accepts that argument.

[PeaceNikki]

22. And where #10 starts it clearly says:

"The board of canvassers still needs to follow the procedures described above in steps 1-9"

[Bjorn Against]

25. I have no doubt that Elias will find many good arguments for a hand recount

I am from Minnesota saw I followed Elias' work on the Franken and Dayton recounts very closely, Kloppenburg could not ask for a better lawyer he is great at what he does and I have a lot of confidence that he will find many really good legal arguments for a hand count. I am still concerned however, because no matter how good his arguments are it is ultimately the decision of the judge. We need to build popular support for a hand count because while they may not say so publicly many judges do pay attention to popular opinion and if they think the public will lose faith in the electoral process if there is not a hand count they will be much more likely to rule in our favor.

[PeaceNikki]

26. And I remain optimistic that it won't even be a fight to get it.

:)

[liberal life]

39. or tabulators

or tabulators

[PeaceNikki]

40. If you read the rest of the document, "tabulators" in that context are people.

Wis. Stat. § 9.01(5)(b)
(b) The board of canvassers conducting a recount may select and employ tabulators to assist it in its duties. Tabulators shall perform their duties under the direction of the board of canvassers. Only the members of the board of canvassers are competent to make any determination as to the validity of any vote tabulated. Compensation of tabulators shall be determined under s. 7.03.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statutes/9/01/5/c?down=1

[rzemanfl]

23. What court do you go to for that? Circuit in Dane I hope. n/t

[PeaceNikki]

24. I appear to have been wrong that the recount petition has to go to judge.

But I remain confused about the hand count thing.... read rest of replies in this thread.

ALSO... I am 100% convinced recount will be hand.

[Snoutport]

15. gore/bush is why they are worried about voter issues...we've learned not to just wait for the system

to check itself.

I do think it is odd that Walker got fewer votes than prosser. not a single independent voter was swayed by everything that has been going on...in fact, 3% moved the other way. very fishy.

[PeaceNikki]

16. Not in this county. Here's the other thing not factored in:

Walker's opponent was Tom Barrett. He's the mayor of Milwaukee. We are right next door to Milwaukee. Even though Walker was the County Exec, Barrett WAS more well-known and liked in metro Milwaukee. That bled into 'burbs. Especially after his brutal attack at the WI State Fair about a year and a half before election.

Account for that.

[blm]

41. Except it is also true that a certain % of GOP voters in Wis. now regret their vote for Walker

and yet none of those GOP voters showed up to vote?

How many ways do you want to have it?

[PeaceNikki]

42. Not in this county, though. See... THAT'S the thing a lot of you don't get.

This is a wealthy, affluent, white-collar, private sector, bible-thumping county.

Yes, I have TOTALLY had a TON of interaction with Republicans with buyer's remorse. In Madison.... people from other parts of the state. DO NONE of them here feel that way? I can't say but I have never met a Republican from Waukesha who is running from Walker. Not one. In fact, they are fucking RABID here.

By and large the Republicans jumping ship are the ones who are public sector workers, there aren't many of those in these parts. Nate Silver parsed the numbers at the county level, and if he went to the city level you'd see those are mostly in 2 or 3 communities here. Brookfield is NOT one. The city of Waukesha is. Menomonee Falls is.

The other group jumping ship are union workers. Again, very few here. And honestly, even the union workers here are private sector hard-core Republicans who hate public sector workers and will cut off their noses to spite their faces.

This is a Repubican stronghold. The land of McMansions gaudily built on beautiful lakes and megachurches and private academy for their kids and country clubs and gated communities and confederate flags (YES, I swear) proudly waving in the wind on the homes in the "poorer" areas.

[Shiver]

44. Yeah... Waukesha county is scary...

:scared: I try to go around it unless I have no choice but to go through it. Like when I visit my uncle in Brookfield.

[PeaceNikki]

45. lol, I leave people with the impression this is a bad place.

Now I will tell you some of the good things about Waukesha County.

It's absolutely BEAUTIFUL. We have quarries, lakes and trails carved out by iceburgs, natural springs, charming downtown areas with incredible hometown appeal and love. Small shops owned by mom n pop, winding roads on rolling hills. It's safe, comfortable, my community is very well-maintained, there are good schools and, even though I very much disagree politically with many, the people are AMAZINGLY full of Wisconsin pride, hospitality and kindness.

And most of all... it's home. :)


And here, this is fun:

General Historical Information:
A drive through Waukesha County uncovers evidence of the great glaciers that once covered the area. Lush rolling hills, abundant lakes and limestone quarries are just some of the natural wonders. Many of Waukesha County's parks feature the lakes and hills created by the glacier.

Waukesha County was home to prehistoric Indians, including the Effigy Mound Builders and Potawatomi people, and was prized by fur traders in the 1700's. When settlers from the east arrived in the mid-1800's, they found four to six foot earthen mounds in the shape of birds and turtles, along with conical and linear mounds. Three conical mounds are visible today in front of the City of Waukesha Library. Increase Lapham, considered founder of the U.S. Weather Bureau, surveyed the mounds. The highest point in Waukesha County is named for him.

As far back as the 1700's, the native people told fur traders about the area's mineral springs. In 1868 Col. Richard Dunbar promoted what he believed were healing properties of Waukesha's water, which launched Waukesha County's “Springs Era”. Through 1910, people traveled cross-country to drink the water. Accounts tell us that up to 25 passenger trains arrived daily. Elaborate “springhouses” were built above the natural springs. Today's visitors can see the last of the original springhouses on the Moor Downs Golf Course, Frame Park and Springs Park.

In the late 1800's, many cities experienced devastating fires that destroyed early wood frame buildings. Waukesha County's quarries provided the stone for rebuilding, and railroads transported the stone to Chicago and other cities with fire damage.

Some of the famous people that called Waukesha County home include Les Paul, the inventor of the electric guitar, and 1930's Broadway stars Alfred Lunt and Lynn Fontanne.

Once dubbed “Cow County USA”, Waukesha County has developed a diverse industrial base. Some of the world's leading manufacturers and businesses have corporate facilities located in the area.