Libya: rebel defences 'failing' as Gaddafi forces move towards Benghazi

[oberliner]

Muammar Gaddafi's forces continued to fight their way toward Benghazi, the heart of Libya's revolution, as five African leaders arrived in Tripoli in an effort to broker a ceasefire and political settlement.

Rebel defences around Ajdabiya appeared to be failing as Gaddafi's soldiers broke in to the heart of the strategic town, 90 miles from Benghazi, and engaged in running street battles after again outmanoeuvring the revolutionaries.

Although western powers continued their air strikes, they did not appear to deter Gaddafi's forces.

Rebels said government forces shot down a Russian-made helicopter sent to the fight by revolutionaries only two days before. Nato forced a rebel MIG jet to land because of the UN-imposed no-fly zone.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/10/libya-rebel-defences-gaddafi-forces-benghazi

[howard112211]

1. This whole thing is tragic on so many levels.

NATO should have pushed for a diplomatic solution from day one. I think many deaths could have been avoided without the kneejerkisms that took place during the first weeks.

[oberliner]

2. Where do you see all this going?

It seems impossible to get a sense of what is really going on.

[madrchsod]

3. ground troops.......

[oberliner]

7. Led by the US?

Or do you think someone else will take a leadership role? Britain? France? Is that even possible?

[howard112211]

5. I think the rebels are too weak, despite the help of NATO.

And essentially we got their hopes up by offering them support, and this lead to many more people getting killed.

It is hard to predict where this is going, but I think a "success" of the revolution at this point is unlikely, unless of course the West decides to do a ground invasion.

I think the West screwed up in one key point: An entrenched dictator will fight like a cornered animal. At this point he knows he is going down, unless he wins. As a strategic measure, it would have been wise to create paths for Ghaddafi to exit gracefully. I doubt he is willing to follow in the footsteps of Saddam. Likely, he would rather die in battle then be captured, tried and executed.

An interesting question is how China and Russia will behave if NATO does a ground invasion.

[oberliner]

6. I fear you may be right

Do you think ground troops are a likely scenario?

[howard112211]

8. I don't know, but if I had to guess, I think not.

I think the US underestimated the difficulty of the whole operation, and pretty much followed Sarkozy into this due to the "heat of the moment" and media pressure. I do not think the white house wishes to do another occupation, since the two that we have are not exactly going well. But this is just speculation.

AFAIK, there were plans to oust Ghaddafi. But I think Sarkozy was like the person who "fired his rifle" prematurely despite the order to hold back and await futher notice, and then everyone else pretty much had to go along with it.

[oberliner]

9. Do you see Gaddafi holding on?

Or do you think he will look for an exit?

[howard112211]

10. Considering that he is currently, according to media, pushing into Bengazi...

... I would speculate "hold on". At least he will try. If he wanted to go into exile it would be easier for him if he didn't shed lots of blood previously. The longer this takes, the more likely it will be that he will face charges for war crimes at some point, if he exits.

One thing to add is that I think what we are seeing here is signs of the limits of the power of the US. Fifteen years ago, we might have done a ground invasion to kick him out. It is clear that the US government would like Ghaddafi out. If he manages to stay in power despite of this, this is certainly a blow to the empire as a concept.

[Cid_B]

4. Duh...

you may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men in the mud. "
— T.R. Fehrenbach