Paul Krugman: Do Issues Matter For Elections? A Test

[cal04]

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/do-issues-matter-for-elections-a-test/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

Now that Republicans have voted for the Ryan plan, big tax cuts for the rich, ending Medicare as we know it, and all, we may have a chance to test a major proposition in political science.

What I hear from my colleagues in the next building is basically that issues matter very little; election results are determined by whether the economy is worsening or improving in the year, or maybe even the six months, before the election.

But now we have a major party endorsing policies that are pretty much the opposite of what polls say, overwhelmingly, the American public wants. People love Medicare; they want to see the rich pay higher, not lower taxes.

No doubt there will be a strong effort to fudge what’s going on: already we’re seeing an attempt to bully the press into not calling vouchers vouchers and privatization privatization. And there will be an attempt to use double-talk to blur the nature of the tax cuts. Still, the Democrats now have a big fat target.

[provis99]

1. hmm, well I agree with Krugman's political science colleagues.

Issues matter very little; if people vote on anything at all other than frivolties, it's based on how well the rich are doing during the election year in question. If the rich are doing ok, they vote for the incumbent.

But most people vote like my grandmother: she votes for whoever shook her hand.

[leftstreet]

2. Issues DO matter to voters. That's why politicians lie about them

It's why they say things like "universal healthcare" instead of "mandatory for-profit insurance premiums"