http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0414/Budget-cuts-are-the-dollar-s-saviorThe nipping of the wolves has already begun. It is led by China, and supported by countries from France to Brazil. The dollar’s dominance will be a topic at this week’s meeting of the Group of 20 countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the tone for those conferences was partly set Thursday in the third summit of the so-called BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China – plus South Africa this time. They agreed to use their own currencies for trade – a practice that would diminish the dollar. Together, the five BRICs have 40 percent of the world’s population and command more than a sixth of the world’s economy, a portion expected to match the US share in a few years.
China has already begun reducing its vast holdings of US dollars. That is the most worrisome sign yet of how much both markets and countries are losing confidence in Washington’s ability to rein in its debt, despite the recent agreements between President Obama and Republicans on the remainder of this year’s budget.
Just as the US dollar began to take over from the British sterling in the 1920s as the world’s top currency, China’s yuan may be on its way to take over the dollar. But how soon? And will it be slow and organic, or quick and drastic?
China’s mercantile way of controlling its economy and manipulating the value of its currency only works against its hopes of usurping the dollar. Its authoritarianism is inherently unstable, and its values run counter to those set by the US in the global system. But if China inches toward democracy and freer markets during this century, its currency, along with others, might define a new multipolar currency system in which the US dollar becomes merely a first among equals.