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Japans was suppose to pass by the US sometime in the 1990s, instead Japan had its "Lost Decade" when contraction was the rule not expansion. A similar situation occurred in the 1920s, the US actually did pass Britain as the premier world power in the 1920s, but suffered way more then Britain did in the 1930s. The US only held its top spot by being untouched by WWII (Except for the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Alaskan Islands). Oil became to new means of transportation and the US was the Number one producer of oil till the 1970s (the US is STILL #3) and the leading exporter till the 1950s. That enhanced US domination of the World.
Japan ran into its lost decade, and their are signs that China is about to do the same. The hit on China will also be a hit on the US, but then the issue becomes which will be harmed less?
The key to world domination over the last 2000 years has been who has the most efficient transportation system? China passed Russia for it has a long coastline, Russia (Except for the Arctic) has very limited access to Sea transportation. India has a even longer coast line, that permits shipping in and out. Europe, for its small size, has the longest coastline of any Continent. This is the chief reason Europe became the center of the World after 1500, ships were getting large enough to haul large amount of cargo, and the long European Coastline permitted shipping between those country. The two reason Britain became the main European Power was its access to coal AND its ability to ship that coal anywhere in Europe at low coast given Britain's long coast line (Britain is an island, in case you forgot). One of the reason Japan became the second most powerful economic power in the world is do to Japan being an island and thus like Britain in being able to ship things by ship to anywhere in the world and almost every where in Japan.
Australia has an even larger coastline, but its interior is desert, not the wet farm lands of Britain. Brazil has as long as Coast line as Britain, but a problem bring things in from the Interior (A problem Brazil has been working on for over 200 years, the Amazon is both a blessing and a curse when it comes to transportation, the Amazon is a curse do to the sere volume of rain the produces the Amazon). China is addition to its long coast line has its two main rivers, that permit moving things from the interior to the coast and from the Coast to the interior. Russian, while having a short coast line (Excluding the Arctic) has the most extensive River system in the world, the system is disjointed by permit internal transportation of goods and the main reason for the strength of Russia.
Western Europe has a massive coast line, but its rivers are marginal, the Rhine, Rhone and Danube (and their tributaries) provide almost all of the internal transportation of Europe, with canals connecting them (European Trains are superior to American trains in terms of Passenger service, but in terms of Fright service, the US Railroads do a much better and efficient job of transporting fright then do European trains (an exception is the Russian trains, but the Russian interconnect the Russian River system). Egypt has the Nile, but its coast line is limited AND the land the Nile goes through is marginal.
Notice the advantages of most of the world is either a long coast line (The US. Europe, Britain, India, Brazil) or a massive interior water system (The US, Russia, Brazil, China). With the exceptions of Brazil and the Amazon, China and its two rivers, Vietnam with the Mekong, you tend to have one or the other not both. The exceptions are your true "Super Powers", the US, China, Vietnam, Brazil, India and Western Europe as a whole (I,e including the Rhine and Rhone rivers their tributaries and interconnecting canals). The Rest of the world is secondary (and that includes Russia, Japan, and Britain).
The Great Lakes and Mississippi water system is by far the largest interconnected water system in the world. The Russian river systems and its interconnecting canals are its nearest competitor, but Russia lack a long coast line, so everything has to go through a very limited number of ports, even if going to other parts of Russia.
China has a shorter coast line then the US and its development has been along these coast lines, the interior has been left to rot. Thus China does NOT have the balance of access to its interior and access to the outside world the US processes (China has expanded its Rail system over the last 50 years to better able to move things from the interior to the coast, and from the coast to the Interior, but over the last 20-30 years this system has NOT been able to keep up with the boom along the coast). Furthermore if you include Canada in the US economic system (And the Dnieper of the Ukraine into the Russian River system), the Chinese river system is clearly #3 (Ahead of Brazil, but that is just because of the massive rain used to produce the Amazon).
If we ignore the history of Coal (Which made Britain #1) and oil (Which made the US #1), the "Natural" tendency of the world is into three "Super Powers", the US, China and Western Europe, several regional powers, restricted by their short coast lines OR lack of interior water lines, Russia (lack of Coastline), Britain (lack of good interior lines AND lack of "size"), Japan (lack of "size" and lack of interior lines).
India is a special case, The economic area known as the Indian sub-Continent has two huge river systems, the Ganges and the Indus. The Ganges is in India, but the Indus is in Pakistan. Together you have a fourth Super Power, as it is you have two regional powers on constant tension with each other.
The two "wild cards" are Brazil and Vietnam, both have extensive coast lines and long rivers, but both lack population AND the rivers are in rain forests which limit how the land around those rivers can be used).
Egypt and Iraq has extensive river systems through limited coast lines, Iraq's river system includes rivers (and this trade routes) to Iran. Hungary has the same situation with the Danube (and to a smaller extent Poland and the Vistula). Nigeria has the Niger river. Argentina has the Rio Plate.
I can go on, but my point is when it comes to being a "Natural Superpower" the choices are limited to China, the US, Western Europe and India. Brazil and Russia will be a step below those four (and this in the right circumstances join the top four, but most of the time secondary powers to the top four). Vietnam, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, Egypt, Britain, Japan, Nigeria and the next level, all have huge assets, but also huge limitations. South Africa is to dry, has limited interior transportation but a huge coastline. The three big power in Africa has always been, South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt.
Mexico has a problem, massive coast line, but its main feature is the Mexican Valley, which tends to hold the people together as a group, but no large river to use as transportation. It is somewhere between Russia/Brazil and the third level, but it is on its own. The same can be said of Columbia, massive coast line but a difficult interior to connect with. Peru has a similar problem as does Chile. Thus the power Struture in Latin American tends to be Brazil #1, Mexico #2, Argentina #3, Chile #4, Columbia #5, Peru #6, Cuba #7 with the rest of Countries south of the US about the same (please note I am ignoring oil, which has made Venezuela more powerful then Peru, but only as long as the oil holds out).
Just a comment about who will be #1, if I was betting I would bet on the US, for its has the best combination of coast line and interior water transportation lines. Western Europe #2, China #3, India #4, Russia #5, Brazil #6, Vietnam # 7, Britain #8, Iran #9 (and this includes Southern Iraq which tends to go with Iran), #10 South Africa. Below #10 we are getting into area where regional powers may be more powerful in that region then any outside power i.e. Iran in Latin American will get beat by any of the top Latin American powers, the distance is to far for Iran to throw its full weight around. Thus who is the local power is more important then who is the top super power.
Over time these numbers tend to be how things are, sometimes #2 is #1, other times #1 is Number 10, but over time the above numbers tend to be the rule. Coal and then Oil were major factors making Britain and then the US the sole Super power (Britain in the 1800s, the US in the 1900s). Once those fuels were no longer under the control of Britain or the US, both country saw their country returning to a more normal level.
Thus China may pass the US, but it will be only short term. Over the long haul the US will be #1. On the other hand, over the long haul China will dominate the Far East and in any fight over the far east China will prevail even if the US is #1.
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