http://www.readersupportednews.org/opinion2/279-82/5754-the-wageless-recoveryMuch of Wall Street thinks inflation is now the biggest threat to the US economy. As has been the case in the past, the Street is dead wrong. The biggest threat is falling into another recession.
The most significant economic news from the first quarter of 2011 is the decline in real wages. That's unusual in a recovery, to say the least. But it's easily explained this time around. In order to keep the jobs they have, millions of Americans are accepting shrinking paychecks. If they've been fired, the only way they can land a new job is to accept even smaller ones.
The wage squeeze is putting most households in a double bind. Before the recession, they'd been able to pay the bills because they had two paychecks. Now, they're likely to have one-and-a half, or just one, and it's shrinking.
Add to this the continuing decline in the value of the biggest asset most people own - their homes - and what do you get? Consumers who won't and can't buy enough to keep the economy going. That spells recession.
Why doesn't Wall Street get it? For one thing, because lenders always worry more about inflation than borrowers - and, in general, the wealthier members of a society tend to lend their money to people who are poorer than they are.