July 13, 2022

Not sure what to make of this, honey

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-warns-four-companies-selling-tainted-honey-based-products-hidden-active-drug-ingredients

Corporate externalities? That seems preposterous. Secret effort to increase pregnancies in a post Roe US to further lock in misogamy? Less preposterous? Barefoot and pregnant the wife says, "here's your morning honey and toast" In any event this is F'd up:

July 6, 2022

to give is better than to receive

Hey KPETE, our state appears on the kind side of the equation!

What states get back for every dollar they contribute in Fed Taxes:
CT .87$ MA .9$ NY&NJ .91$ MN .97$
FL $1.24 AK $2.07 MS $2.09 WV $2.15 VA $2.24 KY $2.89

We all knew the red/blue state inequity but holy smokes Kentucky is a money pit.

July 1, 2022

Happy 94th Birthday Penicillin

Just a thought to ponder fellow DU'ers:

Got enough on your mind with Covid? Well, think abut this: On this day in 1928 penicillin was discovered. Think about it, nearly 100 years. Our whole anti-biotic system is in desperate need of a fundamental overhaul. We could be in need of a "moonshot" like effort for anti-biotics, don't rely on profit driven pharma.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/12/27/super-gonorrhea-may-be-spreading-from-antibiotic-overuse-for-covid-19-coronavirus/amp/

For those interested I post my Covid forecasts on twitter, the latest always pinned to my profile @jlerollblues This current wave will likely match January's. BA.4/5 are basically ignorant of vaccines and "natural" immunity. As I continue receiving infusions for cancer I am astounded how little concern is exhibited by the mask less masses for others that are immune suppressed and humanity in general.

Hope you all have a gratifying 4th,
jlerollblues

June 20, 2022

There are a lot of cat lovers here ... not many know this

What do you think folks? Interesting research on catnip.

https://phys.org/news/2022-06-cats-catnip-strange-reactions-insect.html

Give the kitties some some love and then a little nip to keep the summer bugs away!

Take care,
Joe

March 22, 2022

An update from someone other than the usual voices on Omicron

I am a retired scientist that has spent over 2 years developing a Covid model that will produce forecast over the globe down to a square kilometer. The model outlook is good, a continued waning. However, it is only as good as the input data and algorithms that drive it it. Here is an interview I did yesterday that discusses the future, what is going on around the globe, and the past concerning Covid and its variants.
I hope you find it informative. Keep masking, getting vaccines and boosters if needed, and social distance. Personally I am immunocompromised and when I rarely venture out I am thankful to those still masking.

https://soundcloud.com/user-587903571/matt-mcneil-interviews-dr-joe-eastman-32121?utm_source=clipboard&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=widget&utm_content=https%253A%252F%252Fsoundcloud.com%252Fuser-587903571%252Fmatt-mcneil-interviews-dr-joe-eastman-32121

January 26, 2022

Put a fork in Omicron

it's going to be done peaking in days. The tweet speaks for itself. I includes an erratum, that affected previous forecasts. It is fixed and Northern Hemisphere forecasts will start in a few days (besides the US ones).

Folks, I think we can be relieved. The next week or so should hopefully bear out the projections. This model nailed the last 2 waves months in advance. Omicron presented new problems for all models. Stay diligent but hopefully enjoy this good projection.

https://twitter.com/jlerollblues/status/1486246517530787842?s=20

January 24, 2022

Persistant optimistic forecast

I post these everyday on twitter. The model has had evolving forecasts for over a month, from bad to cautiously optimistic now. This model predicted the first two waves 4+months in advance. Omicron was tough though, but the last 10 days has been persistently predicting a good outcome by the end of May. No time to stop being diligent of course. I am in the process of running this for the northern hemisphere. I don't think I will be able to use 21 ensemble members, this will eat up a TB a day if I do. As soon as the tests are finish I will also post the hemisphere forecasts. The idea of one peak is silly, it varies regionally and locally. Most of the country has/will peak in the next couple weeks (it will be pretty rough). Its large cities like NYC and LA that are really going to have a battle on their hands for a couple months. Hope this brightens your outlook on the pandemic.

https://twitter.com/jlerollblues/status/1485502772313088001?s=20

Take care,
Joe

October 27, 2021

Here we go again?

Just when I thought I could archive the source code for my covid model this pops up to ruin my day. I will be integrating with the "screw you vaccines" variant over the next day. I guarantee it will not be pretty. It will be exacerbated by the time of year and we could easily see another January spike. My model correctly got the last two major spikes in terms of magnitude and timing about 5 months in advance. I will post some results tomorrow. Depressing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-021-00779-5

October 11, 2021

I think I can take a breath

OK, I am cautiously optimistic on the COVID front. For the first time my model run (in real data mode) has a major subsiding by the end of December even with the holiday spreader events. It nailed last January's wave and the delta wave (5 months in advance). I noticed quite an uptick lately in southern states vaccinations according to the raw data. The vaccines are the current key. Now, there are plenty of variants of interest out there that could throw this progress out the window. Vaccinate the world is the answer. I will keep doing the research and develop the model because this is not the last pandemic we will see. I am now transitioning to an epidemic forecast mode and will be producing highly localized 1 month forecasts. I hope this respite is not fleeting. I am exhausted from developing and staring at lines of computer code nearly 24/7 for almost 2 years (I am a retired scientist so I do love modeling but whoa). If you have any interest in the newest localized forecasts (1km grid) I will be posting daily updates soon and will send out the links. Don't let your guard down, keep masking and encouraging others to vaccinate. Lots of work still left even if the model is correct. I have a lot of work to do to get the rest of the globes mitigation/vaccination strategies fully incorporated. Currently the other nations are treated homogeneously countrywide, while the US is down to the local level.

stay safe,
Joe