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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIL-GOV Moves to Lean Democrat
When it comes to rating races, it has long been our practice not to move extremely vulnerable incumbents into the other partys territory until well into the election cycle generally around Labor Day. Even then, they rarely move further than Lean. There are lots of good reasons for this policy, most of which grew out of lessons learned the hard way.
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner has held the dubious distinction of being the most vulnerable incumbent of the cycle, and despite much heckling, has been sitting in the Toss Up column. But, the race recently hit a tipping point that moves it into the Lean Democrat column.
There are lots of reasons not to jump the gun on what amounts to waving the white flag on an incumbents chances for re-election. Some of them include the power of incumbency, the competence of an opponents campaign, and the increasing unreliability of public polls. All three factors collided in 2016 when Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin was seeking re-election and former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, whom Johnson had defeated six years earlier, was running to avenge his loss. There were 56 general election polls in that race, and Johnson was only ahead in four of them. Given those statistics, Johnson was moved into the Lean Democratic column pretty early in 2016. But, 15 of the 56 surveys went into the field between October 15 and Election Day, and Johnson was (barely) ahead in three of them. Johnson won the contest, 50 percent to 47 percent for Feingold and 3 percent for a Libertarian candidate. Of course, it wasnt until after the election when Democratic operatives shredded Feingolds campaign, holding it up as an example of malpractice. We put Johnson back into the Toss Up column 10 days before the election and no amount of second-guessing will resolve the question of whether Johnson should ever have left the Toss Up column.
One factor guaranteed to hurt an incumbent locked in a close race is the presence of one or more third-party candidates on the ballot. Again in 2016, GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire lost her re-election bid to Democrat Maggie Hassan by just 1,017 votes. But, there were two other candidates on the ballot running to Ayottes right; they combined for 30,339 votes, costing Ayotte the election. There are similar stories from statewide races in Montana in 2006 where Libertarians cost Republicans elections, and multiple elections in New Mexico in which Green Party candidates undercut Democratic nominees. It is rare when third party and independent candidates are truly competitive. More often than not they simply serve as spoilers for one party or the other.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/illinois-governor/illinois-governor-rauner-moves-lean-democrat
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)and increase our gubernatorial seats closer to 25 then 16 where we are now I believe.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)I think with somewhere around 40 GOP retirements in the House and Democratic momentum, Democrats have a pretty good shot at winning the House.
The Senate is still a longshot, though. There are several vulnerable Democrats and only a handful of Republicans even up for election. NV is the best shot for a pickup, though I would also love to see Beto in TX win.
I hope Democrats can pick up several governorships, though I know my state of CT is a toss-up/lean R due to how unpopular retiring governor Dan Malloy (D) has been.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)We have a 2/3 chance of winning back the House
" :1/3 chance of winning back the Senate.
And we should pick up six or seven gubernatorial seats.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)to be on the ballot. Rauner has a real chance to come in 3rd behind him. Never was this race going to be any way or shape rauner's to win. He is the most disliked governor in America
My predicitons:
JB Priztker : 56%
Sam McCann: 24%
Rauner: 20%
Illinois conservatives hate rauner, they will show up to vote for McCann or not vote at all. Down ballot republicans are in huge trouble as no reason for republicans to show up to vote
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,847 posts)I'm not suggesting we get complacent this Nov but I think we've got this one.
FakeNoose
(32,833 posts)This is the year to turn it BLUE!
jcgoldie
(11,656 posts)The republicans don't even like him and Pritzker got double the primary votes of Rauner and his challenger combined. This isn't just "lean democrat" its already fell on the ground to the left or something.