"The Republican Base" is an excuse for the GOP to avoid hard questions about inaction and complicity

[dalton99a]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/the-pro-trump-republican-base-that-many-politicians-fear-may-be-shrinking.html

The Republican Base Might Not Be As Scary As It Looks
Politicians fearing a voter backlash against anti-Trump dissent could be mistaken.
By Jamelle Bouie
July 22, 2018 7:18 PM

In private, according to reports, most Republican lawmakers agree that Donald Trump’s press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin was a horrifying display of contempt for American institutions. But they won’t speak out. “Most Republican members are willing to admit POTUS doesn’t operate in reality, but know they’re doomed in their next primary if they say so publicly,” says Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report. “[Republicans] see no upside in speaking out—and fear political suicide if they do,” note Mike Allen and Jonathan Swan for Axios.

Retiring lawmakers like Jeff Flake of Arizona can make impassioned cries against President Trump—“We have indulged myths and fabrications, pretended it wasn’t so bad, and our indulgence got us the capitulation in Helsinki,” he said last Thursday—but few Republicans will back them or take any action to hold the president accountable. (Flake, too, has often failed to offer more than tough talk.) After that speech, for example, Senate Republicans blocked a measure to affirm and support the nation’s intelligence agencies. Fear of the base is just that strong.

What if that fear is misplaced? Yes, polls show high Republican support for President Trump, but those polls don’t measure change in party identification. Most Republicans back Trump, but there might be fewer Republicans. If so, the dreaded GOP base might be less fearsome than it appears.

Most coverage of Republican voters paints them as a unified, unmovable bloc in support of the president. “Huge GOP majority backs Trump’s Putin performance,” reports Axios, summarizing results from a new poll. In it, 79 percent of Republicans endorse the president’s handling of the Helsinki press conference, similar to the 68 percent who supported Trump in a CBS News survey and the 66 percent who backed him in a poll from ABC News and the Washington Post. General approval polls—which give Trump upward of 90 percent support from Republicans—reinforce the perception that, among GOP voters, the president is untouchable.

But that perception misses important context. Presidents always have partisans, and it’s rare that they break ranks. On the eve of his resignation in 1974, half of Republicans still supported Richard Nixon, and 59 percent said he shouldn’t be forced from office. Likewise, around 80 percent of Republicans backed Ronald Reagan at the height of the Iran-Contra scandal. For Trump, the key question is less “how many Republicans still support his administration?” and more “how many voters are still Republicans?”

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