*****FRESHNESS GUARANTEED***** A + RATED MARIST POLL - Biden 53% Trump 42% *

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf

*Interesting tidbit- They nailed 2016. Their final poll had Clinton up by two!!!:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html

[Ilsa]

1. I'm still flabbergasted that trump has

anything more than 30% support.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. And she won by 2.1%

Joe is up 10 points right now, take that to the bank.

[DarthDem]

3. Previous Poll (June 26):

Previous poll from Marist was 52-44 Biden, in late June. Three-point swing in Biden's favor. Not bad!!!!

[lagomorph777]

4. Looks like I can breathe today.

But have to keep an eye on TrumPutinMitchBarr's tricks.

[MiniMe]

5. National Polling means nothing

The results of our elections are by state

[gristy]

7. No, they mean a great deal

National poll results and projected electoral college results based on state polling are highly correlated.

[uponit7771]

9. They don't mean more than swing state polling, its great to know Americans are voting against Trump

... but swing state polling means much much more

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Swing state polling is better

But the odds of a candidate losing the popular vote by 11 and winning the Electoral College are infinitesimal.

[uponit7771]

15. Those are still RV national polls, if Biden is winning by double digits with LV polls mid October

... I'll ascribe the presidential election a loss for Red Don while still getting 2 - 3 other voters to vote.

I'm just pissed at swing state polling from 16, they still haven't told America how they got it so off. None of them had 3rd parties pulling votes like they did in 16

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Thank you gristy

Unless you believe a candidate can win the popular vote by eleven points and lose the Electoral College.

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 and lost the Electoral College by .007 votes in WI, PA, and MI

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. But this poll is of RV's, and most post convention polls will shift to LV's

So prepare for some tightening.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. The gap between RV & LV is always overstated.

So, Biden leads by 8 instead of 11 (just an example), that's still a bigger popular vote margin than Obama had in 2008.

The fact is, if Biden wins the popular vote by even one point more than Hillary in 2016, that's likely going to net him Wisconsin, Michigan and PA.

Three more than Hillary (so 5 points) likely gets him Arizona and Florida.

Five more than Hillary (so 7 points) puts Georgia and Texas in play - maybe even Ohio and Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Let's take the Marist poll at face value.

You're being charitable by giving Trump a three point bump from RVS to LVS. Also, undecideds more often than not end up not voting or against the incumbent. After all they know him or her and if they haven't decided to vote for him or her they probably won't.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Of course. I was just being generous to the point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. For what it's worth Nate has the inflection point at 1.2.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Except for twice in 16 years, 2 elections in the last 5, when they didn't correlate. Nt

[Drunken Irishman]

18. They did correlate.

A very narrow popular vote win means the EC is likely to be up for grabs.

Had Hillary won by a point more in the national popular vote in 2016, she is elected president. But the popular vote margin was narrow just enough to lose her the EC - just like Gore in 2000.

That's where the correlation comes from.

If you can somehow figure out an EC map where Biden wins the national popular vote by seven-plus, which is his current average lead, and loses the EC, showing your mathematical work, I'll bow to your greatness (hint: it'd pretty much impossible, even if he somehow does better in say, California than Hillary).

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. With a margin that wide, Trump can't win the EC without cheating

That’s why he’s cheating.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. The margin in 00 was seven tenth of a percent. The margin in 00 was two and one tenth of a percent

That's a long way from eleven percent.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. As long as Biden is above 50% with a lead greater than twice the MOE, I'm happy

But if we start seeing LV polls of Biden 48 Trump 43, with a MOE of +/-3.5%, that’s enough wiggle room for cheating, between USPS dismantling, suppression and Kanye.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. As

As the popular vote margin increases the likelihood of the Electoral College diverging decreases. It's virtually impossible to win the popular vote by eleven points and lose the Electoral College

[uponit7771]

11. +1, right now we need the senate too. Without the senate Moscow Mitch will gimp EVER SINGLE thing ..

... Biden and dems come out with.

[beachbumbob]

6. this is a baked in national lead and really not going to change a whole lot as trump been

stuck in low 40's approval level for almost his entire term. No matter how the media goes after Biden and Harris. this is not 2016 BUT 2018 on steroids. The first time in history that a democrats are fueled by anger in a presidential election year. If we get the voters out, this will be a historic win

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. Biden over 50%, and over twice the margin of error (+/-3.6%)- sweet! Nt

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Trump can't let the voters decide this election

That's his only path to victory, not letting the voters decide.

Very scary times.

[Mike 03]

26. It's good! But I still can't BELIEVE that four in ten of the people they polled

are OK with this. Honestly, what would it take?