Prediction: The polls are significantly overestimating Trump

[Dr. Jack]

After 2016, pollsters adjusted their methods to weigh more heavily to Trump supporters. After seeing the massive early voting turnout so far and the huge amounts of money being raised by Democrats compared to Trump being nearly bankrupt, I predict that polls are overestimating Trump. I think Trump's bizarre behavior, the pandemic, the state of the economy, and all these threats if violence and refusing to leave office has a lot of people fed up with Trump. They will be very motivated to just get someone normal into office.

I think when we look back at this election, we will say "in reality it was never even close and Trump's threats about staying in office were never going to happen due to his extreme unpopularity." I believe the polls are off in the opposite direction as 2016 and that people will one day see a Trump loss in 2020 as an inevitability.


EDIT: I should also add that I think the Supreme Court stuff is going to push a lot of people over to Biden out of fear of too much Republican power to the list of reasons

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I sure hope you're right! n/t

[MaryMagdaline]

2. I'm starting to feel this way

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. Could be

I read the same thing you're referencing. Better that we're overestimating than underestimating him IMHO.

[BComplex]

57. The problem with overestimating is that it gives trump cover for saying it was rigged.

It's kind of a double-edged sword. If we underestimate, we could be in for a surprise...or he could!

I haven't trusted polling since bush Jr was in office.

[dweller]

4. Cohen said they were manipulating polls

in his testimony to Congress ...

so i don't trust them..

✌🏼

[reACTIONary]

32. They were "online" polls, not ...

... Scientific polls based on random samples

From CNN:

President Donald Trump's former "fixer" Michael Cohen said Thursday that he paid the head of a small technology company thousands in 2015 to rig online polls at "the direction of and for the sole benefit of" Trump.

Cohen was responding to a report in The Wall Street Journal that he paid John Gauger, the owner of RedFinch Solutions LLC, between $12,000 and $13,000 for activities related to Trump's campaign, including "trying unsuccessfully to manipulate two online polls in Mr. Trump's favor"...

...Gauger told the paper that Cohen asked him in early 2014 to help Trump score well in a CNBC online poll of business leaders and a 2015 Drudge Report poll of potential Republican candidates. Gauger's efforts for the CNBC poll were unsuccessful, according to the paper, and Trump ranked low in the Drudge Report poll.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/michael-cohen-poll-rigging/index.html

These polls are "for entertainment only".

[dweller]

34. all polls are online ...

ymmv

✌🏼

[reACTIONary]

37. Not true...

... scientifically conducted random sample polling is most often conducted over the telephone, both land line and cell. Such polls almost always are issued along with a report describing the methodology and listing the questions asked.

A few random sample polls (like PPP) use "automated response" techniques - robocalls that ask you to "Press 1 if...".

There are a few polls with an online "panel" of respondents who participate over and over, with the results being calibrated by some sort of random sampling based on panel demographics.

The term "on line polls", in this instance, refers to the Drudge report asking their readers who they support. Not legitimate at all. For partisan entertainment only.

[reACTIONary]

39. FYI, This appears to be the results from...

... one of the two online polls that Cohen tried to rig:

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/25/your-votes-shaped-the-top-100.html

This is just a trivial, entertaining popularity contest, not a real poll.

[dweller]

43. it all ends up online

like i said, if you want to trust online polls, have at it

i don't ...

✌🏼

[reACTIONary]

54. The results do.....

.... the methodology does not. Rather than blanket mistrust, read the report and it will explain the methodology. If there is no report, then yes, it isn't trustworthy.

[Blue Owl]

5. Trump's gonna have to cheat so bigly that I can't envision how even he can get away with it

VOTE HIM OUT!

[TwilightZone]

6. Not sure I'd agree. Biden's lead is 8-10% in a lot of polls.

That's a massive, massive lead in a presidential race. It's a complete beat-down lead. Obama beat Romney easily and the gap was only 4%.

If anything, I think it might be closer than the polls indicate, though I hope it's still a large enough win to make any post-election Trump whining impotent. I'd take 10%, though.

[oswaldactedalone]

7. Vote

Nothing else matters.

[VarryOn]

8. However it turns out...

I pray for a landslide either way. I want a definite and obvious result very quickly. I'm not up for a 3 or 4 week pissing match.

[spooky3]

23. ???? You would rather cope with a Trump landslide

than a month of battling?

[VarryOn]

53. If we have a legitimate reason...

And a reasonable chance to win out, then, yes, I would be up for it. What I'm not up for is a drawn out battle no matter what.

We just need Biden to win big and problem solved!

[NoMoreRepugs]

9. I agree Dr Jack. My basic inclination is to NEVER underestimate the

ignorance of a fair amount of electorate - BUT, having said that I can also say that the effects of Covid19 on the senior population and the degradation of veterans is going to influence a whole lot of voters. At least that’s my opinion.

[Rob_NC]

10. polls

Polls are useless..
Just media drivel.

[jimlup]

12. right now they are ...

we need to GET OUT THE VOTE

[calimary]

29. Welcome to DU, Rob_NC.

Thing is, though, when Pox Noise polls say the same thing the other networks and media outlets do, then maybe it's not so much uselessness or media drivel.

[reACTIONary]

35. Scientifically designed polls based on random sampling...

... are valid and very useful.

And welcome to DU!

[jimlup]

11. We must discredit the current version of the "Republican party!"

we have to play it like the poll predictions are wrong and that Trump might just barely hang on by hook and crook.

We have to pull out all of the stops. This has to be such a hard slam dunk that the current version of the "Republican party" is forever discredited!

Our country depends on it!

[SoonerPride]

13. Yes. This 💯

I totally agree.

He will be wiped out and so will republicans up and down the ballot blast to coast

When we take the senate and WH back the democrats have to be as ruthless as republicans have been

No more reaching across the aisle.

Eliminate filibuster and add two new states, expand the court, ram through a progressive agenda immediately

Don’t hesitate.

Be ruthless.

[WA-03 Democrat]

16. Ruthless is US!

[calimary]

30. Literally AND figuratively!

[unblock]

14. Frankly I don't think the will of the people has been or will be in doubt

Donnie is the most consistently loathed President ever. He's had net disapproval nearly every day of his entire time in office, and most of that disapproval has always been strong strong disapproval.

A number of presidents have hit lower lows, but only at specific points in their presidency. Nixon right before he has to resign, for instance. But Nixon had been very popular. Donnie was never popular.

The people want him gone and the people want Biden to win.

The only question is can donnie and the republicans cheat enough to steal it.

[OAITW r.2.0]

15. Vote the Organized Crime Party out of every office.

State and Federal.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. I think there's something to this

Trump has a hard ceiling of 44 or 45 percent. 2% will go to third part candidates. Joe could easily win 54-44.

[Cosmocat]

18. Nope

44% of the country has been brain washed by right wing propaganda for so long their brains are mush.

[spooky3]

25. I wish you were wrong but there is too much evidence

That you are right.

[judeling]

19. Its the likely voter screen

They all adjust it to capture what they missed last time but my guess like you is they over did it. The level of exhaustion is not being captured and of course they are not considering the likely occurrence of the the virus spike and its effects on election day voting.

[Shoonra]

20. Do not be overconfident

... There's still plenty of ways that Trump could win, and voter apathy because of opinion polls and the like is one big way.

No matter how optimistic (or pessimistic) you are, go vote even if you have to crawl through broken glass. Every vote for Biden and for down-ballot Democrats will make a valuable difference.

[bucolic_frolic]

21. OVERCONFIDENCE plays to the interests of foreign operatives seeking to interfere with our elections

Sowing such disinformation does not serve the objective of ousting Trump at all, quite the contrary.

Hackers themselves could do no better in diminishing our work ethic on the campaign.

[Stuart G]

22. Biden will get at least 60% to Trumps 38 - 40%...

Yes at least 60% of the vote........On November 3, in evening, you will see that this is correct..

People who dislike Trump are far more motivated to vote then those that like him. A lot of those that
would vote for Trump, know already he is going to lose....The con -man, bully has been on TV one too
many times for most of people in U.S.A.

In addition, Trump lied about the Covid 19 Virus...Trump said it would be gone, and knew otherwise.
We are talking about 200,000 deaths in the U.S.A.


Where did I get those numbers...Is Trump's presidency better or worse than McGovern candidacy?...
McGovern got about 40%, Nixon got about 60%...I would say that Trump's Presidency is far worse than
the 5 or 6 months or somewhat longer that McGovern ran for President.

Keep in mind, McGovern killed no one, and he was honest. Trump has killed thousands, and he has been totally dishonest and further, Trump doesn't treat women fairly. One more idea: McGovern cared about people, and
wanted us out of Viet Nam, and Trump cares only about himself, and everyone knows it.................
So on November 3, in the evening, you will see this is correct.

[The Magistrate]

50. A Reasonable Surmise, Sir

A Johnson v. Goldwater style thumping would do the country a power of good.

[keithbvadu2]

24. But, but, but. You're ignoring all the 'secret' Trump supporters.

But, but, but. You're ignoring all the 'secret' Trump supporters.

Sarcasm?

[Stuart G]

27. There are none...You will see the eve of November 3..

No secret Trumpers......Donald Trump is an embarrassment to the world.

[peggysue2]

26. Agreed!

I think Biden/Harris is going to wipe the floor with Donald Trump and his odious enablers.

Everything else? Theater.

We're going to win this thing. The SCOTUS hearing as grim as it may be is a distraction to be dealt with in 2021.
We're headed for a trifecta: WH, House and Senate.

Donald Trump is wetting his diaper.

We're coming for you, Donnie. And your whole damn family.

[Stuart G]

28. I agree totally. Donald Trump doesn't have a clue...None, Nada, Zero, etc.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. The polls were adjust to include more non-college voters, fewer college educated

So I’m not sure they are overestimating Trump’s support.

[IronLionZion]

33. Don't get complacent. We have to win the Senate too

Since conservatives have taken over the Supreme Court and many federal courts. It will be an uphill battle for the Biden administration to rebuild our economy and he needs a Dem Senate and House. I hope the big blue wave delivers a landslide for us all around and in local races too where they want police reform.

[dsharp88]

36. It's who gets the most votes cast. It's who gets the most votes counted.

The win needs to be so massive that it's statistically impossible for him to credibly claim the win due to vote fraud, or else the misguided 40 percent will continue to follow his and the Fox word like the ignorant sheep they've become.

[WSHazel]

38. Likely Voter Screens

I agree that I think the polls are over-sampling old white men because that is who turned out in 2016. The "likely voter" screen in most polls is heavily dependent on past voting, so new voters and those that stayed home in 2016 will often be left out of "likely voter" polls.

I expect a lot of new voters and returns of voters that sat 2016 out. Even if that is only 1 or 2 million people, it would turn a relatively close election into a landslide.

[VOX]

40. Swing states, swing states, swing states...

That is where this election’s outcome lies. It’s mathematically possible for King Asswipe to win with an even greater popular vote loss than the 3,000,000 in 2016.

Which is why he’s campaigning mainly in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, etc.

Democrats are hostage to the goddamned Electoral College. Biden has to STOMP the orange baboon’s ass in most of the swing states, or else democracy is over.

[Olafjoy]

42. These "silent" dumpster voters

Are you kidding me? Silent? Their favorite thing is to go out with their megaphones and 27 made in China flags. They love being as loud and obnoxious as possible. The days of the silent dumpster voter are over.
I live in a big red area. The silent voters this time are repubs for Biden who hang out with dumpster fans.

[world wide wally]

44. A 7% lead transfers to about 9 million votes.

I'll settle for that

[Hulk]

45. These heathen traitors are just about to lose control of two branches of government for decades....

They may have the judicial branch...but that will be it.

[Lasher]

46. Don't count them chickens yet, Doc.

4 years ago I was absolutely convinced that Trump had no path whatever to an electoral victory. I will never forget that boner! But I must admit electoral vote predictions are looking pretty good now!

[certainot]

47. it was always about the talk radio and nothing has changed there - democrats still ignore

it, committing the biggest political mistake in history

[Sugarcoated]

48. Say what?

[certainot]

56. i like the prediction by dr jack but dems always miss-estimate republican prospects because

we never factor in their only real advantage

at $1000/hr x 15 hrs x 1200 stations rw radio is worth $90MIL/wk attacking dems FREE and unlike fox it can be locally coordinated. the white house is closely coordinated with limbaugh and rw radio in general. everything the republicans and trump are planning depends on democrats ignoring rw radio. turn on any rw station now and it's going all out inciting violence, with local and national blowhards and callers (some paid, some from russia) calling dems communists and lying about protestors and voter fraud, etc. those stations are all going to be used to get trumpers out to intimidate election workers doing any recounts. they will be used to yell about 'new' fantastic polls showing trump catching biden at the last minute. when trump calls the election for himself they will all lie along with him, support his resistance getting out and anything he tries to pull to stay in.

[mountain grammy]

49. I hope you're right

That’s exactly how I I felt in 2016.

[Dr. Jack]

52. I certainly never thought Trump had no chance in 2016

There were points where I thought he might have finally hit a roadblock but at no point did I ever think he was actually out of the running. I never understood the people that dismissed him in 2016. 2020 however feels very different. A year ago I would have said that what happened in 2018 might have been a indication of things to come but I believed not too long ago that Trump was more likely to be reelected than not. So I have never really underestimated him. However, after seeing this year play out, I think most Americans have long since figured out his scam and just want him gone.

[mountain grammy]

55. Once again, I hope you're right

I was scared in 2016, but foolishly believe Americans would reject a sexual predator.

[BlueWavePsych]

51. Yup, pollsters may have over compensated for 2016 this time.

Let's make sure. GOTV