The *real* reason this latest Senate retirement announcement matters

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

So, the not-all-that surprising news Monday that Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby (R) would not run for a seventh-term next November doesn't really change the overall battle for Senate control. Democrats just aren't likely to win an open seat race in Alabama -- particularly if Roy Moore (R) is gone from the scene.

But that doesn't mean Shelby's retirement doesn't matter, or won't have an impact on the Senate landscape going forward.

Here's why: The Senate is a place where everyone is always watching to see what their colleagues do. It's very much a copycat place. If someone makes a move, everyone who didn't make the move wonders whether they should have -- or still should.

In short, momentum matters. And Shelby's retirement adds to the momentum of Republican senators announcing they will not be running reelection in November 2022.

Although we are just more than a month into the 117th Congress, Shelby is the fourth GOP senator to say he won't run for reelection -- joining Sens. Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), Richard Burr (North Carolina) and Rob Portman (Ohio) on the sidelines. (By contrast, no Democratic senators have announced their retirement at this point.)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-real-reason-this-latest-senate-retirement-announcement-matters/ar-BB1dvp9w?li=BBnb7Kz

[Laelth]

1. This matters.

Keep the momentum going!



-Laelth

[Wounded Bear]

2. Indeed! nt

[WA-03 Democrat]

3. No incumbents are a bonus for Democratic Candidates (with Republicans retiring)

Incumbents have and hold an election advantage by winning perviously. Incumbents usually don't have a real primary to beat them up prior to the election. They have to spend more money and Roy Moore could be your opponent.

[Mr.Bill]

4. The only reason a republican Senator wouldn't retire from this shitshow

is if they have one hell of a grift going on. McConnell comes to mind.

[rurallib]

6. I live in Grassley's state - he may finally cash in

But his grandson looms in the background with that name as good as gold in Iowa - Grassley.

[Warpy]

15. I think McConnell is hoping to hang on just long enough for Beshear

to be defeated by another dismal Republican so he won't be followed by a Democrat, now that he's no longer the Big Kahuna. That might be a long wait, people there tell me Beshear has been a relief after the hated Bevin.

Being just another Senator, albeit a longstanding one with entirely too much power, is not sitting well. Plus, he's not a well man.

[MyOwnPeace]

5. This is the 'tip of the iceberg'......

to the political action that's going to take place before the 2022 elections. A major factor regarding it all begins tomorrow with "Round 2" in the Senate (Hmmm, will Stormy be circling the ring carrying a '2' card so the Senators know what round it is? Maybe they'll think she's telling then how bi....oh, never mind.... ).

My sense is that these career pols are not happy with what they see happening to their party. Why should they? It is in chaos! They have been running under the sh*t-storm that BunkerBoy has been spewing since 2016. When his campaign began they thought "NO WAY!" - but he took it all and now they don't know up from down. Who IS leading 'their' party? They have NO CLUE!

It 'should' be easy for us going into 2022 - but remember: 74 MILLION people thought things were good and wanted more of the same!

[Celerity]

7. 'It 'should' be easy for us going into 2022'

See the last two first midterms for a Dem POTUS, 1994 and 2010, (1994- The Gingrich Revolution, and 2010- a net 63 House seats and a net 7 Senate seats lost from where we were post 2008).

[dhol82]

9. Exactly.

[Celerity]

10. I have been on this since the 2020 elections ended, and the House is in serious trouble

I went through every US district and we have between 35 and 50 at-risk House seats, far more than the Rethugs have (as many of those 2018 Blue Wave seats we flipped simply reverted back to their long term Rethug norms in 2020).

Brindisi just conceded, so the final tally is 222 Dems versus 213 Rethugs (3 vacancies, all hyper partisan, 2 ruby red, 1 deep blue, soon filled). 5 D to R net flips and the Rethugs take back the House in 2022. I unfortunately put the odds atm at 75 to 80% they do so, based off historical markers and current trends. Let us hope I am way off.

The Senate is 50/50 or so that we keep it atm

We have 4 at-risk seats to defend

GA - Warnock (the GA state Rethugs will truy and voter suprress lie crazy, but hopefully Stacey Abrams running for governor energises our base)

NV - Cortez Masto (Sandoval will be by far the toughest candidate)

NH - Hassan (governor Sununu will be a really tough candidate and NH just flipped BOTH the state House and Senate fro Dem to Rethug)

AZ - Kelly We dodged a bullet with Ducey declining to run, but who know what fresh hell the AZ Rethugs will try and toss out there to block our voters)


The Rethugs have 3 at risk seats (and then 2 reaches for us to try, one new)

NC - Open Seat Jeff Jackson can hopefully take this, wish to hell he had run in 2020, he would have won, instead Cunningham blew a lead with his idiotic sexting scandal, thus leading to Machin as a one man king maker

PA - Open Seat Hopefully Fetterman or Josh Shapiro (if he runs) can take this, Gov. Wolf said no

WI - Johnson (shitfucker) I think Mandela Barnes would be our best shot, but this is tougher than the two open seats

then the two reaches

FL - Rubio (tough pull unless the Trumps do some crazy shit)

and the new one (but still really hard)

OH (with Portman retiring) By far our best shot is Tim Ryan, but OH is now really red. Ryan is the only Dem IMHO, who has a shot.

The rest are fantasyland reaches TBH. I am sure many will say that Rand Paul is going down. He isn't and I so hope we do not toss away 100 million USD plus tying whilst cash starving other races. We did this in 2020 with KY, TX, and SC, plus ME (to a lesser extent). 3 had poor Dem candidates, and in SC, a never going to happen, Harrison took one outlier poll, a month plus before the election, and ran that for the duration to give a false impression that Graham was in trouble when he never remotely was, and we (due to wish fulfilments 400 million plus in contributions to those 4 races) ended up cash starving and blowing leads in IA and especially MT. Those last two states were buried for us as the Rethugs carpet-bombed them 100 million plus worth of adverts in the last 2 weeks and Bullock and Greenfield did not have the funds to respond adequately.

[iluvtennis]

12. Good food for thought...thanks for sharing. nt

[Celerity]

13. yw

[xmas74]

14. There is another, if everything falls in place.

Roy Blunt is talking about retirement. Vicky Hartzler desperately wants in the Senate. She wanted it in 2018 but rumor has it was told by the party that it "wasn't her time". If he retires she will jump at that seat and probably win.

Unless:

Eric Greitens.

Greitens has an exploratory committee for another run at office. Most believe it's the 2022 seat. Greitens has made it known he's a Trump style Republican. He has insinuated that he would run as a Republican but also would consider a "Patriot Party" style run.

My opinion and the opinion of many others who've discussed him: he wants a triumphant return but he's more than willing to burn the party to the ground. He still blames the MO GOP for his downfall. He might run as GOP in a primary and will lose, then run Independent in the GE. Just last year a survey showed 47% of MO Republicans would support Greitens returning to office as a Republican or an Independent. A Greitens run would cut into Hartzler,especially with the hardcore misogyny running rampant here. Enough of a split and a Democrat could win because they will take St Louis, Kansas City and Columbia.

That exact scenario would have to play out. Blunt has to retire and Greitens has to run. Both are in heavy rumor rotation right now. If it happens, Missouri becomes competitive. If not, Missouri has no chance.

(Also, if Greitens runs as an Independent both sides will take swipes at him. They'd be smart to link him to dark money. This works out well because it can then be linked to Hawley. Greitens and Hawley received dark money from what is suspected to be many of the same sources.)

[Celerity]

20. Missouri is now so red, and the first midterm tide will be strong, so I put this in wish fulfilment

category, unfortunately. Theoretically possible, but unlikely to happen (R to D flip) IMHO. If Blunt does retire, I shall revisit it, like I did with OH and Portman.

[xmas74]

24. I live in Missouri

We have a couple of interesting candidates but we have no chance unless Blunt resigns. He is supposedly taking heat from Trumpers for not defending him enough and they're calling his state offices, threatening to vote against him in 2022. Several are comparing him to his son Matt, saying both are worthless.

He's has millions and he hates spending time in Missouri. Retirement isn't out of the realm of possibility. If he retires Hartzler will definitely jump at that seat unless the party convinces her not to. And Greitens isn't out of the question either.

If he retires it could be an actual race.

[mvd]

17. One good thing: Biden's popularity

If it keeps up into 2022 (and I think it should), that might help with those vulnerable Dem House seats.

I would love for Fetterman to run in PA!

[Celerity]

22. I am for Fetterman too. It will be interesting to see what certain sectors on DU think of him.

[Joinfortmill]

11. It's Putin's Party.

[elevator]

23. Had to clean -up the keyboard after your Stormy line.

Great stuff.

[caraher]

8. Having lived in a "red state" I'm not sure how much this helps

I was in Indiana when the Tea Party idiots decided to primary Richard Lugar (and succeeded). We got lucky with the subsequent race and enjoyed 6 years of a Democratic senator, only because Richard Mourdock (the Tea Party candidate who won by pushing the RINO label on Lugar) couldn't keep to himself is twisted personal views regarding God, rape and abortion. If he were just a little bit smarter he would have won the election (since even a ham sandwich with an R after his - yes, it's always a "he" - name would be an automatic favorite for any statewide office in Indiana).

I'm not sure it's a win to trade Republicans who have Senate experience from the before times for new Republican senators who are likely to be disciples of the orange one (or Q).

I guess it does perhaps reduce their electoral edge in competitive states; but it also makes openings for even more extreme Republicans.

[Poiuyt]

16. When is Ron Johnson going to retire?

Asshole

[brooklynite]

18. The big question: does McConnell put his thumb on the scale to favor a "traditional" Republican?

[mountain grammy]

19. I think we have a good chance in PA with Fetterman

but the others are red. Then again, so was Georgia.

[BobTheSubgenius]

21. I am choosing to view this as positive and hopeful.

Picking up even one, or hopefully two of those would make a LOT of difference in the Democrats being able to push their agenda.