Bomb cyclone could bring powerful nor'easter to Northeast cities this weekend

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Arapidly intensifying storm known as a bomb cyclone could bring crippling winter weather across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Snow, ice, strong winds and flooding are all on the table, giving rise to potentially hazardous travel conditions in those regions.

"Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast," the Weather Prediction Center said Tuesday morning.

The storm is expected to move up the East Coast Friday into Saturday -- its location in relation to the coast will determine whether there's a wintry mix or a foot of snow.

Unfortunately, the forecast models are split on exactly where the low pressure system tracks and how strong it becomes by the end of the week.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/bomb-cyclone-could-bring-powerful-nor-easter-to-northeast-cities-this-weekend/ar-AAT8hYQ

[empedocles]

1. NoVa prediction is for 'snow showers' - Weather Underground

[Scrivener7]

2. They're being very cautious about calling this one.

[krispos42]

3. Great.

At my job we have a new employee in my department, moved here (Connecticut) from Los Angeles. I've been giving him advice and information regarding the weather here, and told him "if you hear that a nor'easter is coming, worry".

Looks like it might be tested soon.

[MuseRider]

4. Western Kansas had 27 inches

today! Pretty drifty around there.

[albacore]

5. I'm watching all this from WA state. Is it me, or has this really been a bad winter back there? nt

[Klaralven]

6. Mount Holly, NJ discussion forecast

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main concern for the weekend continues to be the low
pressure system that will move through the area beginning during
the day on Friday before moving out on Saturday. Following the
low exiting the region, cold and dry conditions will persist
through Tuesday.

Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low
remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows
a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low
closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives
downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in
the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur,
impacts would be higher across the region. However, the
operational GFS to this point has been representative of the
model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and
will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly
deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to
be snow only across the area.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Klaralven]

7. 3:22 am forecast discussion from Mt Holly, NJ

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No surprises here, as we continue to watch a potentially major
winter storm affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard late Friday
and Saturday. Sizable differences in model guidance remain,
primarily owing to the placement of a shortwave trough which will be
moving through western Canada today, and another shortwave well to
its north-northeast. The tracks of, and interactions between, these
shortwaves will be the primary drivers of a developing surface low
and probable bomb cyclone off the US East Coast Friday and Saturday.

Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had
an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z
counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened
later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached
the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of
the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and
still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other
models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be
quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western
solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on
most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed,
downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring
over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important.
With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling
will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should
start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Ultimately, there was not a whole lot of change to the gridded
forecast. Likely PoPs are included for most of the area, a bit lower
across the far west. In terms of timing, it still looks like there
will be some light snow around during the day on Friday, with the
main event Friday night through at least midday Saturday. Snow
remains the favored ptype. There may be just a bit of brief mixing
near the coast at the onset Friday evening, with Friday high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, but if there is precipitation
to be had, it will fall as snow. We will have to watch the winds as
well, especially around the back side of the strengthening storm as
it starts to depart. A closer track would also mean higher winds and
potential for blizzard conditions near the coast. We will be closely
monitoring tidal levels at the coast as well, as astronomical tides
will be on the rise heading into the weekend.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Vinca]

8. We've lucked out all winter, but if that thing shifts just a tad east and becomes a

strong nor'easter, we'll be measuring the snow in feet not inches. Had to happen sometime.