Larry Sabato: "Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic"

[brooklynite]

With the runoff set for tomorrow, most indicators point to a Warnock advantage. In fact, considering the national environment that ultimately materialized this cycle — one where Senate Democrats exceeded expectations — it would not be shocking if Warnock ends up improving on the 51%-49% margin he notched almost 2 years ago.

Since November’s election, a handful of runoff polls have been released. Warnock has posted small leads in nearly all of them. In the initial round, polling aggregates slightly overstated Walker, suggesting that he’d place first but would take below 50%.

Democrats are also outspending Republicans — an internal Walker memo claims that their side had been outspent roughly 2-to-1 since November. While the race hasn’t been as expensive as the 2021 contest between then-Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) and now-Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Georgia is again set to host the most expensive Senate race of the cycle.

Finally, what may be the most concrete evidence for a Warnock advantage is the composition of the early vote. Despite an abbreviated timeframe, the runoff has seen robust early turnout. As of Sunday night, close to 1.9 million Georgians had cast an early ballot, a number that is 47% of the total count that last month’s general election saw (this is mostly in-person early voting but that tally also includes some mail-in votes).

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/georgia-runoff-to-leans-democratic/

[peppertree]

1. Tuesday will be FLIGHT Night for Herschel - right back to Texas

"Herschel lost!? The master will get you for this!"

[BlueCheeseAgain]

2. McConnell was right about the GOP suffering from candidate quality issues.

Bad GOP candidates probably helped us, and hurt them, in NH, PA, GA, and AZ. Maybe a little bit in NV too.

[peppertree]

3. And they never learn.

I recall the GOPee having this same problem in 2010.

It was common knowledge that Bitchy Mitchy might have become Majority Leader at that point - but for Sharon "2nd amendment solutions" Angle, and Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell.

They almost lost Flawrida too - but for Meek refusing to drop out, even after Bill Clinton beseeched him to.

[underpants]

4. Herschel is a really egregious condescending choice

Hey let’s run a black guy! Who? Doesn’t matter some of them will vote for him Why wouldn’t they?right?

I know a lot of times campaigns are just my ham sandwich vs your ham sandwich but Herschel was more of a tell by the GOP.

[peppertree]

6. +1

He's every bit as much a deliberate insult to the Black community, as Coke Can Thomas was when Old Man Bush nominated him.

The way Republicans see it, picking opprobious, infamous Black men - instead of qualified, decent ones - kills two birds with one stone:

It puts an easy puppet in a position of influence;

And it takes revenge on Black people themselves by embarrassing them non-stop - and potentially for decades.

[GreenWave]

5. I say he is wrong and knows it.

They did not lie gloriously enough.

Look at the nut job replacing Luria. (Kiggans)

She will keep our military strong.
Fix our broken economy.
Lower gas prices.
Help hurting families.

That type of bullshit sparked her victory.

[peppertree]

8. Elaine Luria was yet another Dem shamefully gerrymandered out of her seat

Up to now, the VA-2 district included just enough of (majority-Black) Hampton and (student/academia-rich) Williamsburg to make it competitive.

But the new district in centers on Virginia Beach - much of which is filled with white-flight suburbs that sprung up from White people feeling Hampton and Newport News in the '70s and '80s.

While it does have a sizable liberal community (mainly along the beach), trust me - a lot of them are unreconstructed Jim Crowites and Bible-thumping Fallwellistas.

[GreenWave]

12. She also had to run as anti-Biden to appeal to that crowd.

But she really did not address on ads what the Democrats had done for the District. Anything anti-rising tidewater is a Big Winner and I heard nothing of it.

[moonscape]

9. I'm all for tfg choosing their candidates.

[peppertree]

10. +1

Cockwork Orange has become our secret weapon.

[republianmushroom]

7. hopeful

[Mr. Ected]

11. Expect Walker to challenge the results

Through a proxy, of course. He couldn't articulate his reasons for a challenge if they were written down in big block letters for him.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

13. Alex's Magic Lamp Prediction: Democratic Party 52%/ Burn The Constitution Party 48%

The mind boggles why always 1- 4% always saves the nation from burning. Always.