General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLatino Voters Stuck with Democrats
Latino Voters Stuck with Democrats
December 11, 2022 at 4:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2022/12/11/latino-voters-stuck-with-democrats/
"SNIP........
NBC News: In Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos have stuck with Democrats, and that has helped power the partys gains across a region where Latino population growth has exploded. It belies a conventional narrative that Democrats were universally ceding Latino voters to the Republican Party, a storyline repeated throughout the run-up to the Nov. 8 midterms. Instead, indicators show the GOP in danger of losing Latino voters in this region, a prospect that could mean being boxed out of the Southwest for the long term.
.......SNIP"
PortTack
(32,814 posts)SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,979 posts)Celerity
(43,662 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,979 posts)But I really don't believe much polling data out of that hell hole called floriduh. Not saying you're wrong, but anything having to do with DeathSantis, Rubio or the GQP US Taliban part out of floriduh, I take with a grain of salt. It's already bad enough that DeathSantis is not held to a higher standard by the so-called liberal media (which is mostly corporate and greedy for ad dollars, clicks and views) as he's their new darling, and he's never accuratly reported death numbers from covid that I know of.
COVID-19 Data Misrepresented by Florida Governor.
The South Florida Sun Sentinel reported that the Florida Department of Health had commenced an inquiry into the states reporting of COVID-19 deaths, after Governor Ron DeSantis suggested that the official reports overstate the number of deaths. According to the report, Governor DeSantis and members of his staff repeatedly questioned the accuracy of the COVID-19 death rates, with his press secretary Fred Piccolo Jr. tweeting: "we can tell you definitively that Florida is counting deaths that were not directly caused by COVID-19. Mr. Piccolo has also sought to downplay the COVID-19 pandemic in other ways. On one occasion, he erroneously tweeted: we had one COVID death in Florida yesterday . . yes you read that right. One. In fact, on the day in question, there were 47 deaths.
https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/covid-19-data-misrepresented-florida-governor
Celerity
(43,662 posts)https://data.census.gov/table?q=Hispanic+or+Latino&g=0400000US12&tid=ACSDT1Y2021.B03001
Many Central and South Americans (who are so numerous in FL, so the figures at the above link) are RW and hate anything to that is labelled socialist or communist, which the Rethugs have labelled Dems for decades
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/florida-governor-results?icid=election_statenav
lark
(23,182 posts)Think people are missing this. Brazil is the most Catholic nation in the world, so I've read and my SIL agrees.
Celerity
(43,662 posts)Around 40 nations have a higher percentage of Catholics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_by_country
top in terms of percentage:
top in terms of raw numbers
Cha
(297,912 posts)between Rs & Ds.
One is fascism and destroying America.
The other is Democracy and doing all it can to make our Country and her People Better and Better!
Muchas Gracias Latinos!
Martin68
(22,940 posts)in Florida. Florida is heavily weighted towards Cuban ex-patriots, who are quite different from Latinos in the western states.
Celerity
(43,662 posts)Link to tweet
it was things like that as well
Martin68
(22,940 posts)Celerity
(43,662 posts)The Latino population is partially drifting more to the RW as so many are going fundie evangelical that they are now the fastest growing ethnic group for evangelicals, and these converts are far more conservative and likely to vote Rethug.
For the first time ever, less than half of US Hispanics are now Catholic, the first ever for any large Hispanic population on the planet. Let that sink in.
In 2014, 11% of US evangelicals were Latino. 2 or 3 years ago it was up to 19%. Likely easily over 20% now. Thousands of small evangelical seed churches are being systematically set up by Latinos. The whole thing is being driven by the younger cohorts, not a bunch of ageing Boomers who are deciding to go hardcore con in religion and politics.
The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals
A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/
https://archive.ph/O3tMa
In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, We sensed God wanted us there. By 2010, the couple had planted a church, the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.
Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiositymeaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Lifes Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million. None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if theyre going to achieve what Arellano describes as our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.
The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others dont. Thats true among evangelical Latino leaders toothey have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, Were not extending our hand out, asking, Can you help us plant churches? Were coming to primarily white denominations and going, You all need our help. This is a flipping of the script.
Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism, Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trumps job in office than age or gender.
snip
excellent longform article, much more at the top link
There is a link in the article that references the Religious Landscape Study by Pew
in 2014 11% of evangelicals were Latino.
Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)
It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,
less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/
also, there is this:
The Newest Texans Are Not Who You Think They Are
The record influx of recent arrivals from all over might be exactly what the state needs. That includes Californians. (And no, theyre not turning Texas blue.)
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/newest-texans-who-are-they/
snip
Whatever their ethnicities, Californians are coming to Texas in much higher numbers than are migrants from any other state. In 2019 about 42 percent of net domestic immigrants came from California. For all the hyperventilating about Californians ruining certain Texas cities, however, the fastest-growing parts of the state owe much of their growth to Texans shuffling around from city to city. In fact, a primary reason Texas is growing so fast is that we tend to stick around as compared to natives of other states, meaning theres less out-migration to offset the in-migration. About 82 percent of people born in Texas still live here, making it the so-called stickiest state in the country.
Bill Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University, in Houston, points out that basically all the population growth is in the Texas Triangle, the relatively tight space defined by the DallasFort Worth, Houston, and AustinSan Antonio regions. He recently wrote a book with former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros, and we found that the Texas Triangle favorably compared to virtually all other mega-regions in the U.S., including Southern California and the Northeast Corridor. It is a true economic powerhouse.
Thats just one of the ways Texass population growth is changing the landscape. In the booming cities, Fulton points out, the influx of a young professional class has led to a flowering of high-rise and mid-rise apartment buildings, as well as multiunit home lots. At the same time, suburbs have become more diverse than they were in the days of white flight from urban neighborhoods, in the sixties, in part because today gentrifying city neighborhoods are edging out non-white residents. Rural and small-town Texas, meanwhile, is shrinking. In fact, 142 of the states 254 counties are declining in population, some of them precipitously. Schleicher County, between San Angelo and Sonora, lost 29 percent of its population in ten years, the steepest drop in the state.
The diversification of the suburbs could fundamentally alter the political map by changing reliable Republican standbys to perennial toss-ups. Dying small towns carry less electoral weight. Gerrymandering of districts, now pursued as avidly by Republicans as it once was by Democrats, will continue to redraw electoral maps to maintain the current political order. But at some point, likely soon, the old assumptions will simply no longer hold true, and the keys to winning Texas will change.
The Democrats' Hispanic Voter Problem: It's Not As Bad As You Think--It's Worse
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
By Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution, etc)
The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they dont realize how big the shift is; and (2) they dont realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.
But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.
It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That couldor shouldprovoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking. Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democratsits not as bad as you think, its worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read em and weep.
1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).
snip
much, much more at the link, a tonne of data, this is not just one poll
Martin68
(22,940 posts)lees1975
(3,908 posts)And it appears that the Latino vote in the county went back up over 70% in 2022, noting that 20% of the population there is not Latino.
Celerity
(43,662 posts)county (2020 data).
Your claim:
is factually incorrect, Starr County is, as I stated above, 97.68% Latino/Hispanic.
https://data.census.gov/table?q=P2:+HISPANIC+OR+LATINO,+AND+NOT+HISPANIC+OR+LATINO+BY+RACE&g=0500000US48427&tid=DECENNIALPL2020.P2
As for the vote data, it shows a massive drop off in Latino support from 2016 to 2020, which is one of the many reasons for the narrative (at least as far as Texas was concerned) origins which I was discussing.
Donald Trump made inroads in South Texas this year. These voters explain why.
Voters in the historically Democratic stronghold of South Texas are left wondering whether this was simply a strange election during an unusual year or a sign of a profound political realignment in the region.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/
RIO GRANDE CITY It was a strange sight in Starr County: More than 70 vehicles, decked out with Trump 2020 flags, parading 13 miles along the Texas-Mexico border from Roma to Rio Grande City. Even Roel Reyes, who flew an All Aboard the Trump Train flag from the back of his Harley Davidson, was surprised to have so much company. And he helped organize the late October caravan. I was expecting 15 to 20 cars max, Reyes said. Usually this area is for Democrats.
Ten days later, when the election results came in, the rest of Texas was just as surprised at what happened in Starr County. After losing the county by 60 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, President Donald Trump lost it by just 5% to Joe Biden. In neighboring Zapata County, which Clinton won by 33 percentage points in 2016, voters didnt just swing more to the right the county flipped all the way red.
And that trend continued all the way up and down the Texas-Mexico border, where Trump won 14 of the 28 counties that Clinton had nearly swept in 2016 while winning by an average of 33 percentage points. This year those same counties went for Biden by an average of just 17 points.
The results have locals wondering whether this was simply a strange election in which a norm-busting incumbent, combined with the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic, has temporarily upended the borders longstanding political balance or whether this is a sign of a profound political realignment in South Texas.
snip
republianmushroom
(13,785 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,979 posts)with that ....
None of my friends who are my age (60's) and Latino's/Latina's are GQP'ers that I know of.
Now, some of their younger relatives try to be GQP'ers, but their money isn't long enough. Me and my Latina buddy that I've known since we were in parochial school Kindergarten (55 years or so) laugh our asses off at 2 of her nieces that self-identify as 'white.'