(Nate Silver) Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings)

[Playinghardball]

Let’s start by stating the obvious: Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016.

Mrs. Clinton’s credentials as secretary of state, as a United States senator and as a politically engaged first lady would be hard for any of her Democratic or Republican rivals to match. She would have little trouble raising funds or garnering support from the Democratic officials, and she might even come close to clearing the Democratic field of serious opposition.

Mrs. Clinton made some tactical errors during the 2008 campaign — particularly, in her staff’s failure to understand the importance of contesting caucus states. But she improved considerably as a candidate over the course of the long primary, and the experience she gained would undoubtedly help her if she were to run again.

But if Mrs. Clinton runs for president in 2016, one thing is almost certain: she won’t be as popular as she is right now. Recent polls show that about 65 percent of Americans take a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while only about 30 percent have a negative one. Those are remarkably high numbers for a politician in an era when many public officials are distrusted or disliked.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[msongs]

1. backwards. her time came....and went. time to move on to a progressive\liberal democrat nt

[byeya]

2. Nate Silver should stick to his arithmetic, which he's a whiz at, and give political analysis a pass

H Clinton only recovered as a viable candidate when she started populist themes in her speeches and there are better populists among the leading Democrats.

[Playinghardball]

3. I don't think that I would underestimate Nate at this time..

[4 t 4]

5. imho , she will run and she will win....

she will also maybe win a secound term. That gives us 16 years , we might not be as completely shot as we (I) thought. fingers crossed!!!

[byeya]

4. He's out of his field. He's wonderful at what he does but that doesn't translate into

the area where he's giving his opinon.
How many Secretaries of State have become President? Will the Democrats nominate a member in good standing of the DLC types? If no polling has been done, Silver can have his opinion but it doesn't carry much weight.

[4 t 4]

6. I agree she won't be as favorable

But she will win !! I'll take any bets now ! I can spare $2,000 I mean it ! I"ll bet

[byeya]

8. If you tell me relevant polling has been done and Mr Silver is privy to the results then I

will certainly agree with you. Silver is masterful and separating the wheat from the chaff and coming up
with the state of a campaign - none better.

[Tempest]

7. Let's be real

Any Democratic candidate will be strong in 2016.

The GOP is in such a mess they will never be able to agree on a candidate they can all fall behind. That's how they ended up with Romney.

And the GOP is going to be in an even bigger mess in 2014 and 2016 as the GOP leadership and tea baggers have just locked horns over expelling two tea baggers from important committees and the tea baggers have declared open war.