The Morning Plum: How rising gas prices put Obama at risk

[ProSense]

The Morning Plum: How rising gas prices put Obama at risk

By Greg Sargent

Most economists think the recovery is accelerating, and that it’s real. Yet in the new Post/ABC News poll, Obama’s approval numbers are dropping. It’s the first clear sign that rising gas prices could imperil his reelection chances — by imposing additional hardship on struggling voters otherwise inclined to believe the economy is improving.

The poll finds that Obama’s overall approval is down to 46-50; his approval on the economy is upside down at 38-59. After gains among independents and downscale whites, the new poll finds disapproval among them running high, at 57 percent and 66 percent. After leading Mitt Romney, Obama is now statistically tied with him, 47-49.

And yet the poll also finds that public optimisim about the economy is rising. A 49 percent plurality say they’re optimistic about the state of the economy, up from 44-52 at the end of last year; two-thirds, 66 percent, are optimistic about their own families’ financial situation. The public is evenly split, 49-49, on whether their personal experiences indicate the economy is recovering — up significantly since January.

In all these findings you see two major GOP attack lines converging. By relentlessly blaming Obama for the financial hardships rising gas prices are imposing on swing voters, Republicans are trying to make them less willing to credit Obama for the recovery, perhaps leaving them more receptive to the other GOP argument — that the economy is only improving in spite of Obama’s policies, and not because of them.

* Dems making gains on women’s issues: One bright spot in the Post poll: Dems are trouncing the GOP on the question of which party cares more about issues important to women, 55-30.

Sixty-one percent say insurance companies should be required to cover birth control (support declines when the question refers to religious institutions, though it’s still a plurality, 49-46).

- more -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-how-rising-gas-prices-put-obama-at-risk/2012/03/12/gIQAjwAA7R_blog.html

[seabeyond]

1. gas prices always start rising about now for spring break and summer vacations

has for years. so consistently, i dont even see it as a coincidence, but a fuckin game for oil to get more money

[ProSense]

2. Put gas

prices aside, I find it hard to believe that economic confidence is rising, GOP are losing women and independents, Romney just had a couple of horrible weeks, and the poll shows him leading by two, albeit a statistical tie. Given those facts, consider the swing they're attributing to gas prices:

3/10/12
Obama 46
Romney 47

2/4/12

Obama 52
Romney 43

Greg Sargent claims that people are buying into the GOP talking point that the Obama is not responsible for the economic improvement.

I also find that hard to believe since the public isn't buying any of the GOP's other talking points.

We'll see, this is one poll, and one polling period.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. That is discouraging

However the Republicans have nothing better or more substantive to offer and, hopefully, as the year wears on and the Republican nominee is actually chosen and people begin to hear what the Republicans are offering (or not offering), people will, hopefully, decide that giving President Obama another 4 years (and maybe even giving him another Dem Congress to work with) is the better choice. The Republicans are devoid of any promise or hope of progress or reform in this country and haven't even allowed President Obama to really do as much as he wanted to do, so the lack of progress in this country and, specifically, in the economy is as much tied to their own obstructionism and unwillingness to do anything productive. I have a hard time believing that people would want to go back to GOP (mis-)rule and worse. We have been getting good news for the past two months but, realistically, there's going to be good news and bad news from here until Election Day. I just can't imagine a huge groundswell of support forming for Romney or any of the other nominees and, frankly, the prospect of a brokered convention with a "White Knight" nominee who might emerge as the party standard bearer to "save" the party and win the WH seems very unlikely IMHO. Articles like this, however, need to help keep the heat turned up on our end so that we work like mad crazy to win not only the WH but do well at the local and state races as well.

[seabeyond]

4. you are right

after years of watching all this, listening to the manipulation of media to continue to create drama, and flat out lies, i know longer put any stock in this.

either people are totally oblivious to what is happening in this nation (and that is a real possibility that i cannot even fathom, being an isolationist myself) or it has to be crap.

i didnt think they had much of a chance with palin. i was skeptical in 2010, but proved wrong, to an extent. i think it was more the money allowed. i cannot believe that people are such suckers and the numbers are where they say they are. repugs not enthused with romney. turn out is poor. repugs have been horrible for four years, and beyond. the religious extremism does not gel with majority of americans.

so i agree with you. i just dont play in it much anymore.

[bullwinkle428]

5. Trilby Lundberg made the point this morning that supplies are STILL high and demand is low,

so it's pretty difficult to conclude that anything but speculation is driving this current price rise.

Tell me the 1% doesn't drive just about every agenda in this country!

[SammyWinstonJack]

6. And the demand will go even lower as the price rises.

No summer road trips at $4+/ gallon.