PPP: Warren holds small lead in MA-Senate race

[ProSense]

Warren holds small lead in MA-Senate race

PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown 46-41.

Brown is not proving to be an overwhelmingly popular Senator. 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. That's actually up a little bit from a 44/45 spread on our last poll in September. Republicans love him, giving him an 80/7 approval spread. But his appeal to Democrats and independents is not what it once was. At the end of his first year in office Brown was nearly running even with Democrats, with 35% approving of him to 41% who disapproved. Now he's at 23/63 across party lines. And although he remains popular with independents at 53/34, it's not the 61/25 rating he enjoyed with them at the end of 2010.

In the head to head with Warren, Brown has the GOP base completely locked up 89-3. And the 17% of Democrats he's winning is comparable to the 19% we found him getting against Martha Coakley in 2010. But he's only up 48-36 with independents, a far cry from his 64-32 advantage with them against Coakley, and that's the main reason he trails by this narrow margin.

Warren is reclaiming the middle from Brown. We find her up 42-40 with moderate voters, a group that we found Brown leading Coakley 55-41 with. She's also inspiring a lot of enthusiasm from young people. 56% rate her favorably to 27% with an unfavorable view, and she leads Brown 56-29 with them.

Warren's name recognition is up to 79%, from 62% when we last polled the state in September. Her negatives are actually rising faster than her favorability number. She's gone from a a 40/22 spread to 46/33. Democrats (66/15) are pretty enthusiastic about her but she's not showing much crossover appeal, registering at 13/69 with Republicans. Independents are pretty evenly divided with 39% rating her favorably and 38% unfavorably.

- more -

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/warren-holds-small-lead-in-ma-senate-race.html

Excellent!

[Lint Head]

1. Come on Elizabeth! You can do it!

[eissa]

2. I'm surprised it's still a small lead

I find her brilliant and would think a state like MA would easily elect her. Hell, I'm already picturing "Warren 2016" signs.

[indykatie1955]

4. The Tightness of this Race Surprises Me Too

I think she will continue to be an excellent candidate. Given all the recent disclosures on the republican's real agenda Warren should begin to pull away from Scott. Hopefully she will have the necessary cash to respond to Brown's attack since he will be well funded. I am a Warren contributor and she is the first candidate that I signed up for monthly contributions. I live in Indiana but feel I have so much invested in this race.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. This is the best news about the Warren/Brown matchup we have had in months. nt

[karynnj]

5. Good news - after the last 2 polls

The cross tabs do show why Brown is a better than usual candidate in MA, but if things continue as they have, it looks like Warren will be able to capture enough of the independents. Brown got a lot of good press in recent months before the Blunt amendment. The fact that he has weakened may be that he miscalculated on the Blunt amendment. (If that is the reason, he likely can not regain those people lost - he took a much stronger position than he had to and he advertised it pulling in Kennedy's name. How can you regain people deeply or personally affected?)

It is interesting that he is about equal on being seen as bipartisan as a Republican partisan. He won't be able to hide that he is Republican this year.

It is great that Warren has so many excited to vote for her young people. This might mean that they vote for her (and Obama) with a higher than normal participation rate.

[BlueCaliDem]

6. A tiny lead over Brown-shirt?? WTF is wrong with MA voters?!?

Have they taken leave of all their senses?? How in the world could they have voted this clown into Ted Kennedy's seat??

I'm really losing hope with Americans. It's as if they don't think anymore. Urgh!

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. I'll admit, I don't understand this. The president has a large lead, but Elizabeth, not so much?

How do the good folks of MA reconcile reelecting a Dem for president, and a Teabagger favorite to "work with him"? Unless people just aren't paying attention, it makes absolutely no sense to me.

[abolugi]

8. Keep it up!!

Senator Warren has a nice ring to it!!

[Robbins]

9. MA

Part of problem Is the press has been so favorable to Brown.They help sell the Idea he Is moderate Independent minded Republican.
Remember for a long time MA would elect moderate republicans as governor(which Is how Romney got elected) and vote Democrat
in all other races.Patrick was first Democrat since Michael Dukakis to win the governoship there.

Brown's real record needs to come Into focus.His vote for Blunt Amendentment needs to be pointed out to voters In MA.Since Obama will easily beat Romney here the Issude of Brown fillerbusting the Obama agenda needs to be pointed out.

This poll shows Warren could win with a large group of Democrats and actully lose the Independnet vote although as long as It Is not
a blowout among Independents for Brown.