Why It’s So Hard to Predict What Happens with Trump’s Supporters When He Drops Out

[Agschmid]

Donald Trump may seem invincible right now but his current run can’t last. Even if the belligerent billionaire and current GOP frontrunner doesn’t implode on the debate stage next week or on the campaign trail next month, the fundamentals of American politics will still catch up to him: At some point, the GOP field will narrow and an establishment favorite will consolidate enough support to knock Trump from his perch. Eventually, that means he will exit a nominating battle he cannot win.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Washington parlor game of predicting how Trump’s campaign will end is now turning into one about what will happen with his supporters when it does.

There is no shortage of possibilities. Writing in the National Journal on Friday, for example, political analyst Charlie Cook pegs Chris Christie and Ted Cruz’s camps as likely homes for Trump’s backers once their first-choice is out of the race. In the Washington Post, meanwhile, James Holmann calls it a “jump ball” before ultimately suggesting Trump’s loss could be Mike Huckabee’s gain. While the predictions vary, the rationale behind them is usually the same: Whoever wins the Trump sweepstakes will be someone who shares his anti-establishment anger.

But while Trump’s outsider appeal is undeniable, a closer look at the polls suggests it may also be overblown. In the last national survey conducted by Fox News, for instance, pollsters reassigned Trump supporters based on their declared second-choice. The biggest winner? None other than establishment poster boy Jeb Bush, who saw his support climb by more than a third to 19 percent. (The bizarre Bush-Trump overlap can also be seen in reverse: With Jeb out, Trump’s support climbs by three points, the biggest jump of any member of the field.) It’s only one poll, of course, but we’ve seen similar trends in others.

Source.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. They go back to watching Honey Boo Boo, Duck Dynasty, and similar mind rot. nt

[Agschmid]

5. Unfotunately they do support someone, it will be intersting to see who.

[jberryhill]

2. Hopefully they get all frenzied and run off of a cliff together

[JoePhilly]

3. Trump will crash, and then endorse Jeb.

And he'll say the crazies MUST support Jeb over the anti-Christ Hillary.

And the crazy whack jobs will vote for Jeb.

That's the plan.

[former9thward]

6. He may endorse Clinton.

He has given a lot of money to their foundation and they were guests at his last wedding. He was a Democrat until just a few years ago.

[JoePhilly]

7. Bad at math are you?

He's running as a Republican.

He's courting the craziest of the GOP base.

And you think he'll endorse Hillary?

Please.

Oh wait, they went to one of his weddings, they went to a TV star's wedding. So clearly, they are on the same page.

[former9thward]

14. He has been a Democrat most of his life.

But go ahead and ignore history if it make you feel good.

[oberliner]

11. Zero chance of that happening

Jeb is his least favorite of the bunch.

[JoePhilly]

12. Trump is a shill.

I guess the Kochs could get him to endorse Walker. Send the nut jobs in that direction.

But this was the GOP's biggest issue ... how to control he whack job army they created.

They are giving those nuts Trump, and he will try to delivery those nuts to some other GOP candidate.

[Agschmid]

13. Yup Walker.

[Xipe Totec]

4. Who will inherit the mantle of Dickishness from the Donald?

Who will don Donald's dickwad when he's done?

[rustydog]

8. I don't think it is that hard,

They will take the 50.00 he gave them and blow it in a trump casino before it bankrupts again!

[onecaliberal]

9. Supposedly he's going all the way. Running as an Indy if need be.

[madville]

10. They go back to Cruz and Paul

Both fell about 10 points when Trump started getting all this attention. They were both in the teens and are now hovering around 5%.