US private payrolls growth slows sharply in September, ADP report shows

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Reuters

U.S. Markets

US private payrolls growth slows sharply in September, ADP report shows

Reuters
October 4, 20238:28 AM EDT Updated an hour ago

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in September, but that likely exaggerates the pace of slowdown in the labor market. ... Private payrolls rose by 89,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would rise by 153,000. Data for August was revised slightly higher to show 180,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 177,000.

The labor market is gradually easing as it adjusts to 525 basis points worth of interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve since March 2022. The government reported on Tuesday that there were 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in August, though unfilled positions increased by the most in two years. A survey from the Conference Board last week showed consumers' views of the labor market had improved in September.

The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the release on Friday of the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for September. ... The ADP report has not been a reliable gauge in trying to predict the private payrolls count in the employment report.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 160,000 jobs in September. Including government employment, total nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 170,000 jobs last month after increasing by 187,000 in August.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-private-payrolls-growth-slows-sharply-september-adp-report-shows-2023-10-04/

[TexasTowelie]

1. The continued obstinance in the GOP House has eroded confidence in the economy.

Businesses are going to hang on to cash rather than add employees. If Congress can't get a budget deal within 30 days then the country could get a credit rating downgrade from Moody's while Fitch and S&P may put us on their watch list again. While McCarthy's follies are amusing, the overall economic damage could be severe if they wait to the last few days to come to an agreement.

[twodogsbarking]

2. Anyone trust ADP? Anyone?

[IronLionZion]

9. ADP's primary audience are stock traders. BLS's primary audience are economists.

They measure slightly different things so that's why the numbers are often different. ADP issues their report 2 days before BLS so that traders can use it earlier instead of waiting for Friday.

[videohead5]

3. Holiday hiring will start soon

Amazon alone will be hiring 250,000 people.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Private payrolls rose 89,000 in September, far below expectations, ADP says

ECONOMY

Private payrolls rose 89,000 in September, far below expectations, ADP says

PUBLISHED WED, OCT 4 2023•8:15 AM EDT | UPDATED 33 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

KEY POINTS
• ADP reported that private job growth totaled just 89,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 180,000 in August and below the 160,000 estimate from Dow Jones.
• Job gains came almost exclusively from services, which contributed 81,000 to the total.
• The report comes a day after the Labor Department said job openings unexpectedly rose sharply in August.

Private payroll growth tailed off sharply in September, according to an ADP report Wednesday that provides a counterweight to other signs that the labor market is still running strong.

The payroll processing firm said job growth totaled just 89,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 180,000 in August and below the 160,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Perhaps more importantly, the report provides some sign that a historically tight labor market could be loosening and giving the Federal Reserve some incentive to stop raising interest rates. ADP also said annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline.

However, the ADP numbers can differ significantly from the government’s official count, which comes Friday. Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 170,000 in September, down from a 187,000 rise in August, according to Dow Jones.

{snip}

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Finally got to CNBC to see their take

Private payrolls rose 89,000 in September, far below expectations, ADP says

Published Wed, Oct 4 2023 8:15 AM EDT Updated 34 Min Ago

Jeff Cox
@jeff.cox.7528
@JeffCoxCNBCcom

Private payroll growth tailed off sharply in September, according to an ADP report Wednesday that provides a counterweight to other signs that the labor market is still running strong.

The payroll processing firm said job growth totaled just 89,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 180,000 in August and below the 160,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Perhaps more importantly, the report provides some sign that a historically tight labor market could be loosening and giving the Federal Reserve some incentive to stop raising interest rates. ADP also said annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline.

However, the ADP numbers can differ significantly from the government’s official count, which comes Friday. Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 170,000 in September, down from a 187,000 rise in August, according to Dow Jones.

(snip)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/private-payrolls-rose-89000-in-september-much-fewer-than-expected-adp-says.html

Good morning!

[Itchinjim]

6. Fortunately it seems like ADP is always wrong.

So there's that.

[roamer65]

7. There is usually a 12-18 month lag on Fed tightening.

It’s starting to show up in the numbers AND the markets.

Powell is an incompetent moron.

[IronLionZion]

8. The Biden recession lives mainly in the imaginations of delusional conservatives

"nobody wants to work anymore".

[highplainsdem]

10. "large corporations... purged 83,000 jobs." Would live to know how much was AI-related.

The increases came only from small and medium-sized businesses.

Which are also adopting AI. But they're much less likely than large corporations to have departments where a number of employees can be replaced by one employee working with AI.