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BumRushDaShow

(130,226 posts)
Fri May 3, 2024, 08:32 AM May 3

U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, May 3 2024 8:30 AM EDT Updated 5 Min Ago


The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, reversing a trend of robust job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation.

The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022. A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged up, to 7.4%, its highest level since November 2021. The labor force participation rate, or those actively looking for work, was unchanged at 62.7%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-report-april-2024-us-job-growth-totaled-175000-in-april.html



From the source -




BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
Payroll employment increases by 175,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 3.9% https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
#JobsReport #BLSdata
8:30 AM · May 3, 2024


Good Friday morning. Please stay tuned for DU's economy watchers to do the deep dives and TGIF.

Article updated.

Previous articles -

Published Fri, May 3 2024 8:30 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago


The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, reversing a trend of robust job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.



Published Fri, May 3 2024 8:30 AM EDT Updated 1 Min Ago


The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April, reversing a trend of strong job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.



Original article/headline -

U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected

Published Fri, May 3 20248:30 AM EDT


Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 240,000 in April while the unemployment rate held at 3.8%, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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mahatmakanejeeves

(57,817 posts)
1. From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fri May 3, 2024, 08:36 AM
May 3
https://www.bls.gov/home.htm

Payroll employment increases by 175,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 3.9%
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Economic News Release USDL-24-0796

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, May 3, 2024

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2024


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5 million, changed little in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.6 percent) increased in April. The rate for Blacks (5.6 percent) decreased, offsetting an increase in the prior month. The jobless rates for adult women (3.5 percent), teenagers (11.7 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million, was essentially unchanged in April. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.6 percent of all unemployed people. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate held at 62.7 percent in April, and the employment-population ratio was little changed at 60.2 percent. These measures have shown little change over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

In April, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.6 million, was little changed. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 362,000. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 56,000 jobs in April, in line with the average monthly gain of 63,000 over the prior 12 months. In April, employment continued to increase in ambulatory health care services (+33,000), hospitals (+14,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Employment in social assistance increased by 31,000 in April, led by a gain in individual and family services (+23,000). Social assistance had added an average of 21,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

In April, transportation and warehousing added 22,000 jobs, with gains in couriers and messengers (+8,000) and warehousing and storage (+8,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment in transportation and warehousing had shown little net change.

Employment in retail trade continued to trend up in April (+20,000). Over the prior 12 months, the industry had added an average of 7,000 jobs per month. In April, employment increased in general merchandise retailers (+10,000), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+7,000), and health and personal care retailers (+5,000). Electronics and appliance retailers lost 3,000 jobs.

Construction employment changed little in April (+9,000), following an increase of 40,000 in March. Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.

Employment in government changed little in April (+8,000). Over the prior 12 months, government had added an average of 55,000 jobs per month. In April, local government employment was unchanged, following an increase of 51,000 in March.

Employment was little changed over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $34.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $29.83. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

In April, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime was also unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 34,000, from +270,000 to +236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from +303,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for May is scheduled to be released on Friday, June 7, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

{snip}

progree

(10,961 posts)
2. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And yes these are NET job gains
Fri May 3, 2024, 08:38 AM
May 3

The reported nonfarm payroll jobs are jobs created and job openings filled minus jobs lost: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143221098#post24

LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisor Workers (PANSW)
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Hourly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
----- Nominal means NOT inflation adjusted. Just plain ordinary greenbacks ----
. . . # Nominal Hourly Earnings of PANSW- http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008
. . . # Nominal Weekly Earnings of PANSW - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000030

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    # Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
    # Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
    # White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)

SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

More LFPR links including by race: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695870

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Data series finder (employment/unemployment related): https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . Regular CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Core CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Energy: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF1?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food at home (groceries): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
. . . One Screen Data Search for CPI components: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789


Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

HariSeldon

(459 posts)
3. How vicious is the Federal Reserve system?
Fri May 3, 2024, 09:40 AM
May 3

I work in technology, and the impact of the increased Fed target rate is brutal, or at least the fundamental excuse for a lot of brutality. Customers like my company's products, but don't want to spend money to upgrade to the latest version (despite how beneficial it would be for them and the unavoidable risks in using hardware well beyond it's designed lifecycle).

And all of this is because the Federal Reserve wants to tame inflation by bolstering the buffer stock of unemployment. But is it in any way just to overlook the pain a 0.1% increase in unemployment represents, or the number of willing but unemployed Americans 3.9% represents?

There are other ways to tame inflation -- ways that that don't put the cost on the back of working Americans -- but those ways are not under the control of the Fed, rather of our currently-as-often-dysfunctional Congress. I can't help but suspect that these economic policy tools were separated in exactly this way by intent, so that Congress could dither on the measures that would be kinder, leaving the Federal Reserve to say, "I guess we have to do this cruel thing because it is the only tool we've been given." The end result is that workers bear the brunt of taming inflation and the Fed, seen as an extension of the federal government, exhibits a casual cruelty toward workers in celebrating increased unemployment.

Happy Hoosier

(7,497 posts)
4. I'll disagree a little....
Fri May 3, 2024, 10:49 AM
May 3

.... IMO, most consumers have gotten far too used to incredibly low interest rates. We really needed a return to the mean. Interest rate cuts can't be a tool if interest rates are already really, really, low.

There will be a period of adjustment to the "new normal." IMO, have mortgage rates consistently blow 3%, for example, was never really sustainable.

Johnny2X2X

(19,351 posts)
5. I agree
Fri May 3, 2024, 10:55 AM
May 3

Interest rates are a little elevated right now, but interest rates below 3% for a mortgage are not a sign of a healthy economy.

And overall right now, the economy is healhy and doing very well. Growth is solid, UE is extremely low, and wage growth is high.

maxsolomon

(33,475 posts)
7. It's a jump when you're trying to sell "Recession" before a Presidential Election
Fri May 3, 2024, 12:02 PM
May 3

The Dow responded by jumping 375 points this morning.

progree

(10,961 posts)
8. It went from 3.9% to 3.8% in the April 5 report; I bet he didn't describe that as an "unexpected plunge"
Fri May 3, 2024, 12:42 PM
May 3

He probably described it as a "slight easing within the range of statistical sampling error" or somesuch. But when it goes from 3.8% to 3.9%, it's an "unexpected jump".

Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,817 posts)
15. Yahoo! Finance's April employment report article was written by Josh Schafer.
Fri May 3, 2024, 03:06 PM
May 3

It started with a placeholder article posted the afternoon before that was edited soon after 8:30 a.m. on Friday morning. I can't recall how I was able to post it before it was published. Y!F must not account for updates in its timestamps.

Thu Apr 4, 2024, 02:39 PM: March jobs report expected to show slower pace of hiring, lower unemployment rate

Yahoo Finance
March jobs report expected to show slower pace of hiring, lower unemployment rate

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Thu, Apr 4, 2024, 3:50 PM EDT • 3 min read

{snip}

Yahoo Finance
US economy adds 303,000 jobs, unemployment falls to 3.8% in March as labor market continues to impress

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Updated Fri, Apr 5, 2024 • 3 min read

The US economy added more jobs than expected in March while the unemployment rate ticked lower, underscoring signs the labor market remains on stronger footing than many economists had predicted.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 303,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, significantly more than the 214,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% from 3.9% in February.

{snip}

Men sweat; ladies perspire.

And good afternoon.

progree

(10,961 posts)
16. Thanks for digging that up. 3.9% to 3.8%: "ticked lower", 3.8% to 3.9%: "jumped"
Fri May 3, 2024, 04:25 PM
May 3

different authors but one Yahoo Finance.

BumRushDaShow

(130,226 posts)
9. I had seen a breaking where the Dow futures were up 500 right after the news and before the opening
Fri May 3, 2024, 12:44 PM
May 3

and apparently settled lower (but at this post time, up 445).

progree

(10,961 posts)
11. Another one to watch is the 10 year Treasury bond yield
Fri May 3, 2024, 12:52 PM
May 3

went from 4.57% at yesterday's close to 4.51% now. Indicating that today's report somewhat tamed interest rate expectations.

https://finance.yahoo.com/ at the top has a bunch or stock and economic indicators of the type that fluctuate throughout the day.

Bitcoin up 4.7% (their investors like lower interest rates)

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