Hold Off on the Obama Victory Dance

[babylonsister]

http://prospect.org/article/hold-obama-victory-dance

Hold Off on the Obama Victory Dance

Robert Kuttner

March 12, 2012

The president's re-election chances have improved, but Obama faces severe tests on energy and national security.


Things have been breaking well for President Obama. Economically, job growth has outperformed expectations. The unemployment rate could be below 8 percent by Election Day. Politically, Republicans are engaged in the sort of demolition derby once reserved for Democrats. The protracted Hillary-Barack duel of 2008 seems like a love feast compared to the Mitt and Rick slugfest. All this is reflected in the president’s rising approval ratings.

However, Obama faces a daunting two-part challenge related to Iran’s nuclear assertions, with implications for both national security and sustainable energy. A misstep could cost him the presidency and cause the country to take a disastrously wrong turn in these two critical areas.

snip//

Obama will need not only a policy of patient restraint vis-à-vis our enemy Iran but an equally firm policy to restrain our friend Israel. Here, too, he faces mischief from the Republican right, which is more slavishly pro-Israel than the Israel lobby.

Obama has been an effective foreign-policy president. His fate is to govern when the most pressing issues are economic. Unjustly, his foreign-policy successes have not gained him notable support, but foreign-policy failure would produce severe setbacks. If an oil shock derails the recovery, that failure would also have grave economic consequences with knock-on political effects.

For both energy and national security, what’s needed is more of the Barack Obama we glimpsed in 2008—the political leader as teacher. Obama has played this role better as a candidate than as chief executive. Happily, President Obama is again a candidate. On both energy and national -security, Iran offers a politically tempting low road and a more arduous but ultimately rewarding high road. To make the high road good politics will take rare leadership to educate public opinion and isolate the ultras.

[DonCoquixote]

1. amen

especially as the oil comanies will do anything and everything to get that war with Iran and that keystone pipeline

[DCBob]

2. I think the President has three major issues that the GOPers could exploit.

-- Iran
-- gas prices/energy
-- Obamacare

Regardless I think he wins but these issues will make it a challenge especially when we will have RW media backing the Republican nominee non-stop 24x7x365.

[babylonsister]

3. One major consolation might be debates; we do need an honest proctor though, who

would point out varying opinions expressed, and I don't see that happening.

[DCBob]

5. Im sure the President will do very well in the debates againts Romney.

No doubt Mittens will get flustered and say something stupid as he has done so many times before.

[JHB]

14. Just remember Bush said stupid things too...

...and that didn't keep him out of the Oval Office. Mitt doesn't have the cheerleader factor that Bush had going for him to deflect poor performance, but the lesson is to not assume the outcome.

[pacificman]

4. still 8 months to go

i'm increasingly optimistic, though.

[Jamaal510]

6. They showed a poll on MSNBC during NewsNation earlier today

that says that Romney would win against Obama in November. So much for that 9 point advantage we've had for the past several weeks.

[babylonsister]

7. I just wonder how. The rethugs have turned off AAs, women, hispanics. Really, how? nt

[SpartanDem]

8. The big spike in gas prices

[babylonsister]

9. Yes, but there are all kinds of people, articles, etc., even from the republicans,

claiming they're not the President's fault, but speculators. I can't imagine anyone in the groups I mentioned would vote for a rethug solely on that, especially when all 3 groups have been disparaged so mercilessly by rethugs based solely on their ethnicity or sex.

[Icicle]

12. Never underestimate...

....the Dirty Tricks Squad.
We really need to be on our guard for election tomfoolery.
Think FLA 2000.
Seriously, if it becomes apparent that the Republicans will lose, I think they will try every trick to win.
We must be vigilant.

[CAPHAVOC]

13. $3.78 a gallon

Is your answer. Not many people pay any attention to media squabbles. They all have to fill er up.

[obxhead]

15. Polls.

A tool used by the MSM to create news in an otherwise news free day.

[Jamaal510]

16. Maybe I should quit watching the news for a while...

Those pesky polls...

[OmahaBlueDog]

11. March to November is an eternity in Presidential Politics

You really can't start looking at polls for either side until after the convention. Note that the GOP has now gone into the "It's going to be Mitt" mode. Mitt is buring through cash that the GOP would have preferred to spend battling Obama. In times past, they might have struck a deal to put Santorum on the ticket as Mitt's veep, and that could have ended it. However, I think Romney's veep will either be Marco Rubio or Bob McDonnell (maybe Tim Pawlenty). In any event, there's a lot more politicking to be done by both sides, and the GOP will continue primary battles for at least a few more weeks.