BTRTN: How We Nailed the Midterms with a Near Flawless Prediction

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides a comprehensive report card on its own predictions on the mid-terms. The grade? The most accurate predictions in the business.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-how-we-nailed-midterms-with-near.html

Excerpts: "Our predictions were not only extremely close to the final outcome, they were 'best in class,' beating those of FiveThirtyEight and Sabato...
"We accurately predicted 34 out of the 35 Senate races, including 7 out of the 8 battleground races. The only prediction we missed was the very last race called, and the closest one, in Nevada, where incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto defeated GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by less than a point.
"We accurately predicted 35 out of the 36 gubernatorial races, including 4 out of the 5 battleground races. The only prediction we missed here was also the very last race called, also the closest election, in Arizona.
"We predicted the GOP would take the House and pick up 21 seats; they did take control and actually picked up only (either) 8 or 9, depending upon California 13th, the only race yet to be called. We take (tiny) credit for predicting the GOP would win control and (a bit more) credit for predicting a relatively modest Dem loss of seats -- certainly not a red wave.
"Both the FiveThirtyEight and the Sabato predictions were a shade “redder” than ours on most measures, and thus they both got more seats wrong in the Senate and with the Governors (though FiveThirtyEIght was a tad closer to the mark in how many seats the Democrats would lose in the House). All in all, though, we think it is fair to say that BTRTN won the night."

[republianmushroom]

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