BTRTN Midterms: Our Prediction for Georgia's Senate Runoff Election

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers announces its official prediction for tomorrow's run-off election for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. Two years ago, BTRTN was alone in predicting that both Georgia Senate races would go to a run-off, and that both the run-off elections would be won by Democrats. Once again, BTRTN is going with the Democrat. Run the full analysis and prediction for tomorrow's race here:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-midterms-our-prediction-for.html

Excerpts: "The Georgia Senate runoff election is not quite the 'center of political universe' event that it was in January, 2021 (when there were two of them). It lost that special luster when Catherine Cortez Masto eked out a win in Nevada, thereby giving the Democrats their 50th seat and thus maintained control of the Senate. But it is still a highly consequential race. With all 505 Senate, House and gubernatorial races now complete (California’s 13th House district was finally called by AP just a few days ago), we end up once again in Georgia.  To end the suspense, let’s get to our prediction:
"Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoff is that Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock will defeat GOP challenger Herschel Walker by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin.
"The rationale for the Warnock-win prediction is pretty straightforward; virtually of the factors one would typically assess are leaning in Warnock's direction...(see post for full rationale)
"From this vantage point, we believe tomorrow will be the last day of Hershel Walker’s political career..."

[republianmushroom]

1. like

[lees1975]

2. Congratulations, that was pretty close.

A few people here got a little panicked last night but it was pretty clear.

[tgards79]

3. Ha, well..

...it was extremely clear that they last votes that would be counted would be heavily democratic -- Fulton, Chatham, Cobb, DeKalb, Clayton, Gwynnette, Henry, etc., counties. It was just a mater of time.