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25 Dec: Russians Offensive Operation Implodes; War in Ukraine Explained - Reporting from Ukraine
Day 305: December 25
Today there is some good news. The intensity of the fights in the Bakhmut area noticeably decreased, and British Intelligence reported that the Russians are out of resources to support a large-scale offensive operation. In fact, the Russians have struggled to ramp up their offensive because Russian forces made fewer overall advances for the last two months than in October alone. The Institute for the Study of War made the same conclusion and added that Russia may be forced to initiate a tactical or even operational pause. The Battle for Bakhmut is not turning in Russian favor, and here is why.
In the southern part of Bakhmut, for a long time, the fights were taking place on the street near the church, which meant that the Russians still haven’t reached the most fortified positions. The likelihood that they would reach it soon recently decreased even more as the Ukrainians have allocated elite forces to hold this defense line. Some sources also suggested that after conducting extensive artillery preparation, the Ukrainians made a counterattack and recaptured 500 meters of territory near Opytne, and geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces were patrolling in the southern part of Opytne. Also, the Wall Street Journal published an interview with a Ukrainian commander who stated that Russian artillery strikes on Bakhmut are less intense than what his unit experienced on the Kherson front during the Ukrainian counteroffensive there and suggested that Russian forces in the Bakhmut area may be running out of ammunition. Such a conclusion made by Ukrainian forces on the ground indicates that recent Ukrainian precision strikes on Alchevsk, Kadiivka, Irmino, and others, indeed, destroyed a lot of ammunition depots and put a noticeable short-term strain on supplies of shells.
In the southeastern part of Bakhmut, the Russians experience trouble moving from the garbage dump. Their offensive actions in this part of Bakhmut seem to have culminated at the waste sorting plant, and it is understandable because the latest updates suggest that the Ukrainians have established firing positions for tanks near the embankment. This means that any Russian move will receive an extremely intense rebuff, inflicting devastating losses, so the Russians are not expected to prioritize this direction, especially moving towards the embankment as they did before. Also, Russian sources reported that even small infantry groups find it extremely difficult to achieve any meaningful tasks southeast of Bakhmut because there are at least three pairs of snipers that control the area. These pairs operate in concert, and they are equipped with plenty of ammunition, radio stations, and thermal imagers.
In the eastern part of Bakhmut, Russian forces exhausted their capabilities and completely lost their positions in the residential area. As you remember, the Russians made a very risky move – they tried to fix Ukrainian troops in the Siniat factory and use it to deliver an unexpected blow to the south. This worked but only in the short term. The Russians neither established good defensive positions to draw and fix Ukrainian troops here nor did they successfully expand control over the region. The Russians got under heavy artillery fire and then later were pushed out by the elements of the motorized brigade. Both geolocated, and drone footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical counterattack and repelled Russian forces from the outskirts. A prominent Russian army veteran also admitted that Wagner Group forces had to retreat back to the eastern industrial zone.
Overall, Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has noticeably slowed in recent days. Even Russian sources acknowledged that the Ukrainians have managed to slow down the pace of the Russian advance.
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As for Christmas, I had an unexpected house guest. My brother went to the local convenience store and brought home a cat with him. It appears to be a Chartrux (grey fur and orange eyes). I think that it is a female and about eight months old based upon the size and weight. It was about 20 degrees outside and the cashier in the store said that the cat was hanging around for a few days.
The cat is hanging around my brother's bedroom since I have the 5 year old cat in my bedroom. I've had a chance to pet the cat a couple of times, but it's too early to develop the trust to take photos. The orange eyes freaked me out since I've never seen a cat with orange eyes before.
I also had a nice lead in to Christmas when I won $100 on a $5 scratch-off ticket. 