Will there be a "Contested" Democratic Convention?

[CajunBlazer]

There is confusion about what the term “contested convention” means.

It is a possibility that neither candidate will win enough pledged delegates before the Democratic convention to win the nomination outright. That is because there are a large number of super delegates. In fact, if it were not not for the super delegates, with only two candidates in the race, a contested convention would be mathematically impossible. Either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would lock down the nomination before the convention.

Here the math:

There are a total of 4046 pledged delegates

Number needed to the win most pledged delegates before the convention = 2023 (half of 4046 +1)

But there are 719 super delegates

That raises the number of total delegates to 4765 (4053 + 483)

Number needed to win the most to total delegates before the convention = 2383 (half of 4053 rounded up)

Rest of article here: Will there be a "Contested" Democratic Convention?

[ismnotwasm]

1. Nice explanation

[LannyDeVaney]

2. Uh, no ...

not even close.

This is all being hyped up by the media and the Sander's camp is just trying to milk their supporters for more $.

There will not be a contested convention, and the final delegate count will not be close.

[Iliyah]

3. NO

[DemonGoddess]

4. Nope.

[LiberalFighter]

5. There is some math discrepancy.

First, I have a few more pledged delegates for Clinton than reported in the article.

But the meat of the discrepancy is as follows:

Total pledged delegates are 4051. Automatic delegates total 714 if they are all allotted.

Total of all delegates does equal 4765. And 50% +1 does equal 2383.

[CajunBlazer]

14. I've noticed different sources...

...often will differ slightly on the number if total pledged delegates and number of pledged delegates won by one or both candidates. I'm can guess, but I am not sure why. However, none of that makes a in difference in the reality of the convention situation. It is as I described.

[Stand and Fight]

6. Nicely written article... One thing was giving me facial ticks throughout reading it though...

It's pledged delegates, not "pledge delegates".

It could also use some polishing on the editorial side, and I largely agree with those who find trouble with the methodology being used. The article seems to buy into the media hype an inordinate amount.

[CajunBlazer]

8. Yea, thanks I wroted it very quickly

I wouldn't want people to have facial ticks so I'll fix that.

[Stand and Fight]

23. Thanks, man. I can't wait till this primary wraps up... Perhaps that's what was really causing it!

[George II]

7. Here's where they stand as of today:

Clinton needs 44% of the remaining pledged delegates to get a majority of pledged delegates (only 717 of 1647)
Sanders needs 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to get a majority of pledged delegates (931 of 1647)

Clinton needs only 32% of all the remaining delegates to get a majority of all delegates (only 593 of 1840)
Sanders needs 68% of all the remaining delegates to get a majority of all delegates (1249 of 1840)

[BlueMTexpat]

9. I believe that the next six

states will only serve to create more distance between Hillary and Bernie, making any real come from behind movement literally impossible and thus making the likelihood of a pledged delegate tie moot.

Hillary will also gain delegates in subsequent states even if she doesn't win outright and a win in CA could possibly put her over the top, especially if Bernie hasn't met his delegate targets even where he wins states outright, as in WY last weekend. See,e.g, http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

WY was a wonderfully fortuitous result for Hillary - wonderful in that it was wholly unexpected! I would have been happy for her to meet the target. Instead, she exceeded it.

[LiberalFighter]

17. With New York, CT, MD and PA

She should have a net gain of about 102 delegates.

I don't have polling data for DE or RI to include. The total delegates for those two amounts to 45 delegates.

[Congruente]

10. No knowledgeable expert or journalist has said yes

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Treant]

11. It looks like seven or eight of the

nine closed primaries coming up will go to Clinton--some, the biggest, pretty strongly.

This won't be "contested" in any real sense. She already has the pledged Supers, they're not inclined to change from what I've seen, and she'll romp to the nomination without nicking a heel.

[Stuckinthebush]

12. Only in the deluded dreams of Sanders (I-VT) supporters

They remind me of the guy in the Dr. Pepper commercials around the time of the college football playoff who, when confronted by all of the bad surrounding his time, says, "But there IS a chance, right?"

"Sure".

"WHOOHOO!"

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

27. Larry Culpepper?

[Stuckinthebush]

30. That's the one

He's talking to a sad fan in an empty stadium.

[2naSalit]

13. No.

Aside from the bad behavior of his followers/supporters, Bernie isn't willing to crash the party like all the candidates on the R side of the aisle. He's a self-invited visitor to the party and I think he's at least wise enough to recognize that he needs to mind his manners. As for his followers/supporters, can't be too sure they won't attempt to disrupt the convention... they are already harassing and threatening delegates so...



But they won't have the rest of the convention on their side and I don't anticipate they will be well received if the try anything stupid.

[creon]

15. Doubtful

Although it does depend upon votes in the primaries.

It seems likely to me that Clinton will have no problem getting nominated.

I prefer Clinton.
She is more cautious, calmer, more lawyerly, more experienced.
I think that she would do a better job of handling a GOP Congress. I think that gridlock will continue.

I have nothing against Sanders; I neither like, nor dislike him.

I will have no difficulty voting for either one.

I do not have an enemies list.

[beachbumbob]

16. Nope...media wants contested election and will do all they can

But Hillary has math in her favor...especially when she wins New York and ups her delegate and popular vote leads..sanders is on an ego trip..and his supporters swallow it..

[stopbush]

18. Sanders campaign has said that unless Hillary gets 2383 PLEDGED delegates, they will contest.

They are demanding that she get 59% of the pledged delegates. Huh? WTF?

So, if she got only 58%, you would contest her nomination based on the fact that you (Sanders) got all of 42%?

[CajunBlazer]

19. Probably

More time for Bernie to pick up more money and keep talking in the spotlight about his "revolution" even after it has crashed in flames.

Regardless, it will be over after the first ballot.

[Pathwalker]

20. One of Bernie's guys said last night "There's no such thing as

a pledged delegate until the first vote is taken, and they will dispute every one that votes FOR Clinton." This was on CNN after the debate, and everyone on the stage were like - "What?" It was that Weaver guy, and he had them all rolling their eyes. Then, they went to a commercial. UGH!

[stopbush]

21. I wonder if the DNC has a rules committee like the RNC does.

That RNC Rules Committee meets on the first day of their convention to decide the rules. They could write any rule that they want. They could write a rule that says the pledged delegates are going to be ignored totally and that party insiders will be deciding the nomination.

If the Ds had such a committee, they could also write their own rules. If that's a possibility, then I suggest they adopt a rule that no delegates will be tallied for any candidate who hasn't spent that last 5 consecutive years as a bonafide, member-in-good-standing of the Democratic Party. That would leave Sanders out the equation entirely!

[Pathwalker]

22. I don't know, I just saw it as the Bernies changing the goalposts again.

First, it was Super delegates, then Southern voters, and now that it appears Hillary will win with pledged delegates alone - THEY no longer count. The DNC needs to do something to stop this madness, because the Bernie campaign has made it perfectly clear that they don't believe in the Democratic Party principles, much less democracy. They want the will of voters overturned based on polls that show him winning the general - polls based entirely on him NOT being vetted by the media.
Nothing could be less Democratic, and I just can't imagine Hillary supporters standing for it. Both my Senators have assured my husband and me that this will NOT happen.

[katmille]

24. Because Bernie Is. Not. A. Democrat!

I keep saying this. To my husband, to my son, to my walking buddies, to my book club! Who, btw, most agree with me.

[SharonClark]

28. K&R

[CajunBlazer]

29. Of course it won't happen, and the Sanders campaign knows it

It's all about keeping the money coming in ftom supporters, many which can't afford it, so Sanders can continue trying to sell his revolution that has already crashed and burned.

[DavidDvorkin]

25. It's a meaningless threat

After the rollcall, when Hillary has the required total number of delegates under the DNC's rules, that will be the end of it.

[liberal N proud]

26. As negative and slimy as Sanders has turned out to be, I don't put it past him

He has become emboldened and de termed by his limited success and crowds, crowds that don't vote.