STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 10 August 2015

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 10 August 2015[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 7 August 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 7 August 2015
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Dow Jones 17,373.38 -46.37 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 2,077.57 -5.99 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 5,043.54 -12.90 (-0.26%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.16% -0.07 (-3.14%)
30 Year 2.82% -0.07 (-2.42%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
Market Updates
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
08/03/15 Former City (London) trader Tom Hayes found guilty of rigging global Libor interest rates. Each fo eight counts carries up to 10 yr. sentence.







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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. I don't often LOL at cartoons anymore, but this one I did!

Took the Kid to see the Mission Impossible movie, number umpty-ump.

It was too long, too thin on plot, too full of car and motorcycle chases, and I don't see the market value or artistry of Tom Cruise (and never did. He made everyone else in the film look good, though.)

But beyond that, I think the whole super-secret spy vs spy genre has been gummed to death.

Now, if it had featured the IMF we all know and fear, that would have been terrifying...

But alas, there's not much at the theaters this week. We saw Mr. Holmes last week (and I cannot recommend it too strongly!)

[Warpy]

18. Clay Bennett is one of the best editorial cartoonists out there

and he just keeps getting better and better.

This one says it all about the GOP field of candidates.

[Demeter]

2. ROBERT REICH

[Demeter]

3. Creating a Central Bank US

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/when-train-wreck-no-accident

From the very earliest days of the formation of the American republic, bankers (along with inside help from George Washington’s secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton) sought to create a banking monopoly that would create the country’s currency and become the central banking system. The first attempt at a central bank was a failure, and strong opponents, including Thomas Jefferson, prevented a second central bank for a time. Later, further attempts were made by bankers and their political cronies, and each central bank was either short-lived or defeated in its planning stages.

Then, in 1913, the heads of the largest banks met clandestinely on Jekyll Island, Georgia, to make another try. Having recently lost yet another bid to create a central bank, due to the public’s understandable concern that the big bankers were already too powerful, a new spin was placed on the idea. This time, they decided to present the idea as a government body that would be decentralised and would have the responsibility of restricting the power of the banks. However, the new bill was in fact the same old bill, with a new title and some minor changes in wording. But this time, it would be presented by the new president, who was a liberal. The president, Woodrow Wilson, had in fact been handpicked by the banks. The banks then scuttled their own conservative party’s candidate, got the Democrat Wilson elected, then installed a secretary of the Treasury whose job it would be to ensure that the Federal Reserve was created.

The bill was widely supported by the public, even though, in truth, it was not a federal agency, but a privately owned conglomerate, controlled by the banks. Neither was it a reserve. It was never intended to store money; it was intended to give the biggest bankers control of the economy. They followed the central principle of uber-banker Mayer Rothschild: “Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”

From the start, the new institution peddled itself as the protector of the people’s interests, but it was quite the opposite. Its purpose from its inception was to control the economy and the government by controlling the issuance of the currency. In addition, it was to be a system of taxation. Typically, a population accepts a certain amount of direct taxation but has its limits of tolerance. Yet, the bankers understood that a less direct method of taxation was infinitely more profitable and infinitely safer from criticism...

[Demeter]

4. Inflation as a Profit System

(CONTINUED)

Inflation was not always the norm. At one time, prices were relatively static from one generation to the next. But the Federal Reserve touted the idea that “controlled” inflation was in fact necessary for a prosperous economy. Of course, the greater the debasement of the currency through inflation, the more the central bankers profited. But at some point, the currency would have lost virtually all its value and it would be time for a reset. The currency would need to collapse and a new one created.

And so, the Fed set about its hundred-year programme of continuous inflation. Although there have been periods of lower inflation (and even deflation), the programme stayed more or less on course, and now, its hundred-year life has all but ended: the dollar has been devalued almost 100%. And so, we find ourselves at the day of reckoning. The economic crisis we are now facing (not only in the US; it will be felt, to a greater or lesser extent, worldwide) is not a mere anomaly that we need to “push past”. It’s a systemic crisis. It’s been created by design and the system must collapse.

Of course, the central banks are in the process of protecting their interests, to make sure that, whilst this will be a major economic calamity, they themselves will continue to profit. The damage will be borne by the general public...This began in earnest in 1999, with the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, allowing banks to create a massive, reckless mortgage spree. It was backed by the government’s “too big to fail” policy that guaranteed that, when the banks predictably became insolvent as a result of the loans, government would bail them out. (And by “government” we mean “the taxpayer”; it was he who picked up the bill for the banks’ recklessness.)

[Demeter]

5. The End Game (OF THE US DOLLAR AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE)

The next step in getting ready for the collapse is an all-out effort to confiscate the wealth of the public. This can be seen in the effort to push investors away from solid forms of wealth protection such as gold and silver and into stocks, bonds and bank deposits. More recently, we’ve seen the emergence of an effort to end the use of safe deposit boxes and a push to end the use of paper currency in making transactions. The end objective is to force as much money as possible into deposits in banks, then take it. The US, EU and a few other countries have passed confiscation legislation, allowing the banks carte blanche to confiscate and/or refuse to release deposits.

Of course a reset of these proportions will not be without its fallout. The public will be horrified at the outcome, at the realisation that the very institutions they thought had been created to protect them had never been intended to serve their interests at all. Once they realise that the world’s greatest Ponzi scheme has been foisted on them, they will be hopping mad and justifiably so. Those who had not had the foresight to internationalise themselves, to remove themselves as much as possible from the system, will most certainly want to get even in some way.

And this makes clear why governments, particularly that of the US, are working so hard to create a police state. Unless a totalitarian state can be created, those who are presently taking the wealth may not be able to fully realise their objectives.

The coming train wreck is no accident. It has long been planned. That the “smart fellows in charge” will somehow save the day is therefore a vain hope indeed. It’s still possible to back out of the system, but it’s getting more difficult every day. The window is closing, and the time to internationalise is now.

BUT HOW, YOU ASK? FROM THE COMMENTARY:

"They don't want the money; Geez, they created it. What they want is LEGAL title. When the system goes broke, LEGAL title goes to whom it was pledged as collateral. Follow the money AND the title. They don't care what they paid for it, as the funds were created from nothing. "

&feature=youtu.be&t=26m

"Internationalizing one's assets is not only wise, it may be the only way to avoid destitution. By all means, get some/most of your wealth away from the greedy grasp of Uncle Sam. Own PMs. Own foreign real estate. Buy some farm land.

And getting a second passport is not treason, it's having an escape valve from the criminal syndicate in Washington."

"The problem with the internationalise BS is that no where on earth will your wealth be safe. So go ahead take it to another country where they hate americans and see how long you get to keep it when the collapse comes. I will stay here and do the best I can to keep my family and friends safe and fed."

"I have a somewhat different viewpoint on the whole banking collapse thing than most other people have.

I agree that the people who thought this scam up have made a huge mess of things and the system is in imminent peril of failure.

But I tend to think that the uber-nazis running things are not trying to engineer a crash but rather to avoid one,

They ALREADY OWN THE WORLD in any effective sense of the word.

Allowing chaos to enter into the equation merely produces a random chance factor that could end up with them losing their current grip on the planet.

Witness the incredibly dishonest and patently illegal schemes they are frantically resorting to in order to keep the drama running.

The quickest way for them to crash the system is to immediately start doing nothing. Take away the artifical stimulants and grotesque check-kiting. Boom, it's gone.

This is not to say that they aren't tweaking the items behind the "Break Glass In Case of Fire" cabinet. While they have no idea how to fix the mess they are in, their one remaining hope is to keep it together long enough for time to heal. They will fight to the end to keep the current cartel alive."

[Demeter]

14. The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Surged in the Last Two Days

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-05/wall-street-says-yellen-poised-to-end-long-run-of-zero-rates

Traders have never been more convinced of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The chances of an interest-rate increase next month reached 52 percent Wednesday, up from just 38 percent just two days earlier. What's fueled the change of heart? Hawkish comments from Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart on Tuesday, and a surprisingly strong report on U.S. service-sector growth Wednesday morning....

[Demeter]

6. ‘My Bailout Is Bigger Than Yours’ – China Is Buying More Time To Buy Gold Before Joining SDRBASKET

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-09/%E2%80%98my-bailout-bigger-yours%E2%80%99-%E2%80%93-china-buying-more-time-buy-gold-joining-sdr-basket

Every western media outlet was reporting about how the Chinese bubble was deflating at an extremely fast speed as its stock market decreased by 30% from 5,200 points to roughly 3,500 points before rebounding towards 4,200 points. It seemed like the world was heading towards Armageddon until the Chinese government stepped in to rescue the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

It quickly instated new measures to ensure the stock market would have a ‘soft’ landing. The Chinese government announced pension funds were suddenly allowed to purchase shares which suddenly generated almost 100 billion dollars in additional support for its falling stock exchange. This first step wasn’t enough, and the Chinese government asked/forced the brokers to step in by pumping an additional few dozen billions of dollar in the market to stop the freefall. In its final move, China has instructed a $483B state-owned fund to start purchasing shares on the open market to ensure there’s a bidder for stock other people want to dump.

According to a professor at the university of Beijing, the total amount of stimulus provided by the central government was $1.6 trillion dollars, in just a few weeks/months time, and that’s massive. Keep in mind the total program of the USA to save its banks through the Troubled-Assets Relief Program (TARP) had a size of less than half of that.

The extremely strong reaction from China teaches us two things. First of all, China is prepared to unleash everything it has got to stabilize its stock market. It really tells you it will do ‘whatever it takes’ (where have we heard that before?) to stop the crash. Did you hear that, Super-Mario? If The ECB’s ‘plan’ was a ‘bazooka’, how would you describe the Chinese plans?

Secondly, there’s another reason why China wants to stabilize its stock market as fast as possible. As we reported before, the country is currently in discussions with the International Monetary Fund as it wants to get the Chinese Yuan to be included in the package of the Special Drawing Rights-system. If this would happen, the influence of the American Dollar would very likely decrease. According to our most recent information, the IMF officials seem to be quite receptive to include the Yuan in the SDR-basket as it’s indeed a relatively strong and stable currency – but of course, if the stock market plunges, its entire application gets discredited...

[Demeter]

7. Greece's Collapse Was a Reversion to the Mean… Who's Next?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/greeces-collapse-was-reversion-mean%E2%80%A6-whos-next

Because of the rampant fraud and money printing in the financial system, the real “bottom” or level of “price discovery” is far lower than anyone expects due to the fact that the run up to 2008 was so rife with accounting gimmicks and fraud.

The Greek debt crisis, like all crises in the financial system today, can be traced to derivatives via the large investment banks. Indeed, we now know that Greece actually used derivatives (via Goldman Sachs) to hide the true state of its debt problems in order to join the Euro.

"Creative accounting took priority when it came to totting up government debt. Since 1999, the Maastricht rules threaten to slap hefty fines on euro member countries that exceed the budget deficit limit of three percent of gross domestic product. Total government debt mustn't exceed 60 percent. The Greeks have never managed to stick to the 60 percent debt limit, and they only adhered to the three percent deficit ceiling with the help of blatant balance sheet cosmetics...

Around 2002 in particular, various investment banks offered complex financial products with which governments could push part of their liabilities into the future," one insider recalled, adding that Mediterranean countries had snapped up such products.

Greece's debt managers agreed a huge deal with the savvy bankers of US investment bank Goldman Sachs at the start of 2002. The deal involved so-called cross-currency swaps in which government debt issued in dollars and yen was swapped for euro debt for a certain period -- to be exchanged back into the original currencies at a later date.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html

The above story for Greece is illustrative of the story for all “emerging markets” starting in 2003: tons of easy money, rampant use of derivatives for accounting gimmick, and the inevitable collapse...From a big picture scenario, in 2003, the global Central Banks abandoned a focus on inflation and began to pump trillions in loose money into the economy. Because large banks could loan well in excess of $10 for every $1 in capital on their balance sheets, global credit went exponential. The effect was sharply elevated asset prices that greatly benefitted tourism-centric economies such as Greece. As I stated in our issue Price Discovery:

If the foundation of the financial system is debt… and that debt is backstopped by assets that the Big Banks can value well above their true values (remember, the banks want their collateral to maintain or increase in value)… then the “pricing” of the financial system will be elevated significantly above reality.

Put simply, a false “floor” was put under asset prices via fraud and funny money.

Take a look at the impact this had on Greece’s economy...Below is Greek GDP dating back to the 1960s. Having maintained a long-term trendline of growth the country suddenly saw its GDP MORE THAN DOUBLE in less than 10 years after joining the EU?

GRAPH AT LINK

In many regards, this “growth” was just a credit binge, much like housing prices, stock prices, etc. By joining the Euro, Greece was able to borrow money at much lower rates (2%-3% vs. 10%-20%). Rather than using these lower rates to pay off its substantial debts, Greece funneled as much money as possible towards Government employees (nearly one in three Greek workers). As a result, Government wages nearly doubled to the point that your typical Government employee was paid 150% more than his or her private sector counterpart. Add to this a pension system in which retirees are paid 92% of their former salaries and you have a debt bomb of epic proportions. In simple terms, Greece from 2003-2010 was an economic boom driven by incomes, which were in turn driven by cheap debt NOT real organic growth. Thus, the collapse in GDP was yet another case of “price discovery” in which asset prices fall to economic realities…

GRAPH AT LINK

Another Crisis is brewing. It’s already hit Greece and it will be spreading throughout the globe in the coming months. Smart investors are taking steps to prepare now, before it hits...

[Demeter]

8. JPMorgan Ranks No. 1 as Bank Most Crucial to Financial Stability

BOY, ARE WE IN TROUBLE, THEN

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/jpmorgan-ranks-no-1-as-bank-most-crucial-to-financial-stability

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the bank most integral to the stability of the global financial system, followed by HSBC Holdings Plc and Citigroup Inc., according to a U.S. study. U.S.-based banks account for half of the 10 lenders that ranked highest for “systemic importance” in the report released Tuesday by the Office of Financial Research. Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were also in the top 10.

The researchers evaluated factors that global regulators use to assess systemic importance, including size, complexity and how difficult the bank would be to replace if it were to fail. U.S. banks “particularly dominate the complexity and substitutability categories,” according to the report, written by the OFR’s Paul Glasserman and Bert Loudis.

Banks based outside of the U.S. that were in the top 10 include Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA, Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse Group AG.

The report said exchange-rate fluctuations could impact the rankings, and is a potential weakness in the criteria used by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of international regulators. Banks might be encouraged to “adjust their business near the end of the year solely to offset currency effects,” the researchers said.

JPMorgan was also first in a ranking of just U.S. banks that the research office released in February. The OFR conducts studies for U.S. regulators and the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, has a shortfall of as much as $12.5 billion to meet capital rules approved by the Federal Reserve last month. The New York-based lender was assigned the highest capital surcharge of the eight large U.S. banks that must comply with the new Fed rule.

[Demeter]

9. Aetna Beats Profit Estimates on Government Insurance Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/aetna-beats-estimates-on-growth-in-government-program-insurance

Aetna Inc., the No. 3 U.S. health insurer by enrollment, raised its full-year earnings forecast after reporting profit that topped analysts’ estimates as it added more members in government insurance programs.

Second-quarter operating profit was $2.05 a share, Hartford, Connecticut-based Aetna said Tuesday in a statement. Analysts had estimated $1.82 a share on average. Operating profit will probably be at least $7.40 a share this year, the company said, up from a forecast in April for $7.20 to $7.40.

Aetna agreed last month to buy Humana Inc. to expand in Medicare, while Anthem Inc. announced a deal for Cigna Corp. The health-insurance industry is consolidating as it absorbs new customers and contends with added regulation from President Barack Obama’s Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

By buying Humana for about $35 billion, Aetna gains 14.2 million medical customers, including 3.2 million in the private health plans for the elderly known as Medicare Advantage. Aetna has said it expects the deal to close in the second half of next year.

The deals have fueled a 24 percent rally this year in the index that tracks the five biggest U.S. health insurers. Aetna shares have gained 28 percent.

UnitedHealth Group Inc., the largest U.S. health insurer, raised its 2015 profit outlook last month when it reported second-quarter results. The company completed its acquisition of pharmacy-benefits manager Catamaran Corp. on July 23....

[Demeter]

10. A decades-old Medicare rule may be needlessly extending hospital stays

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-decades-old-medicare-rule-may-be-needlessly-extending-hospital-stays-2015-8

A decades old Medicare rule requiring a three-day hospital stay before patients can transfer to skilled nursing facilities may needlessly prolong hospitalizations, a study suggests

Researchers compared the average time patients were hospitalized between 2006 and 2010 in privately administered Medicare Advantage health plans that either stuck to this rule or allowed people to transfer to skilled nursing facilities sooner.

Lengths of hospital stays increased with the rule in place and declined when it was waived, the study found.

“The three-day stay rule may inappropriately lengthen the time spent in a hospital for patients who could be transferred to a skilled nursing facility earlier,” senior author Dr. Amal Trivedi, a health policy researcher at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, said by email.

This minimum-stay rule dates back to the 1960s, when patients typically remained in the hospital for nearly two weeks, and three days was the minimum time needed to evaluate them and plan their post-hospital care, Trivedi and colleagues note in the journal Health Affairs.

Since then, typical stays have shortened, and skilled nursing facilities have become an increasingly common treatment setting for patients with complex medical problems who no longer require acute inpatient care...

[Demeter]

11. Untangling The Many Deductibles Of Health Insurance

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/08/05/429084273/untangling-the-many-deductibles-of-health-insurance?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Sure, there's a deductible with your health insurance. But then what's the hospital deductible? Your insurer may have multiple deductibles, and it pays to know which apply when. These questions and answers tackle deductibles, whether an ex-spouse has to pay for an adult child's insurance, and balance billing.

Recently I took my son to see a pediatric gastroenterologist. When I arrived at the office, I saw it was located adjacent to the hospital. My insurance has a large hospitalization deductible so I worried that the visit would not be covered. Nobody in the office could tell me how much an office visit would cost. Why not? Isn't that something I should be able to expect?

Your plan's hospital deductible won't affect how much you pay for the visit to the specialist, whether or not his office is affiliated with the hospital, says Richard Gundling, vice president at the Healthcare Financial Management Association, a professional group.

Here's how it works. Most health plans have medical deductibles that must be satisfied before the plan starts paying for most services. Preventive care is an important exception; there's no deductible for that. Some plans like yours also have separate hospital deductibles. But your hospital deductible would generally only come into play if you were admitted as an inpatient.

"Even if the facility is hospital based, her visit would still be an outpatient procedure and wouldn't affect her hospital deductible," Gundling says...

MORE COMPLEXITY AT LINK

CAN WE HAVE UNIVERSAL SINGLE PAYER NOW, PLEASE?

[Demeter]

12. Tax filing problems could jeopardize 1.8 million Americans' Obamacare aid

http://www.businessinsider.com/tax-filing-problems-could-jeopardize-18-million-americans-obamacare-aid-2015-8

About 1.8 million households that got financial help for health insurance under President Barack Obama's law now have issues with their tax returns that could jeopardize their subsidies next year.

Administration officials say those taxpayers will have to act quickly.

"There's still time, but people need to take action soon," said Lori Lodes, communications director for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which runs HealthCare.gov.

The health care law provides tax credits to help people afford private insurance. Nationally, that aid averages $272 a month, covering roughly three-fourths of the premium.

By funneling the aid through the income tax system, Democrats were able to call the overhaul the largest middle-class tax cut for health care in history. But they also spliced together two really complicated areas for consumers: health insurance and taxes. Confusion has been the result for many.

Consumers who got health care tax credits are required to file tax returns that properly account for them, even if they are unaccustomed to filing because their incomes are low. Unless they follow through, "they will not be able to receive tax credits to help lower the cost of their health insurance for 2016," Lodes explained.

Treasury officials said 1.8 million households are at risk of losing subsidies for next year, and that number breaks down as follows:

About 710,000 households that have not filed a 2014 tax return, although they were legally required to account for health insurance tax credits that they received.
Some 360,000 households that got tax credits and requested an extension to file their returns. They have until Oct. 15.
About 760,000 households that got tax credits and filed their tax returns omitted a new form that is the key to accounting for the subsidies. Called Form 8962, it was new for this year's tax filing season.

"I think it was definitely confusing for people," said Elizabeth Colvin of Foundation Communities, an Austin, Texas, nonprofit that helps low-income people with health insurance and taxes. "It could have been worse, quite honestly. I think a lot of tax preparers didn't know how to do these (forms) either."

The 1.8 million households with tax issues represent 40 percent of 4.5 million households that had tax credits provided on their behalf and must account for them. The rest had their returns successfully processed by the IRS as of the end of May.

Earlier this summer, a Supreme Court decision preserved health care tax credits for consumers in all 50 states, turning back a challenge from conservatives opposed to "Obamacare." Because of the law's built-in complexity, some of those consumers may now be at risk of losing their assistance....

ANYBODY SURPRISED HERE?

[Demeter]

13. Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html

It is too late for OPEC to stop the shale revolution. The cartel faces the prospect of surging US output whenever oil prices rise... If the oil futures market is correct, Saudi Arabia will start running into trouble within two years. It will be in existential crisis by the end of the decade. The contract price of US crude oil for delivery in December 2020 is currently $62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and the petro-rentier states. The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market and drive out rivals, boosting their own output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. Bank of America says OPEC is now "effectively dissolved". The cartel might as well shut down its offices in Vienna to save money.



If the aim was to choke the US shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly, just as they misjudged the growing shale threat at every stage for eight years. "It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought, at least in the short-run," said the Saudi central bank in its latest stability report.

"The main impact has been to cut back on developmental drilling of new oil wells, rather than slowing the flow of oil from existing wells. This requires more patience," it said.

One Saudi expert was blunter. "The policy hasn't worked and it will never work," he said.

By causing the oil price to crash, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have certainly killed off prospects for a raft of high-cost ventures in the Russian Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, the deep waters of the mid-Atlantic, and the Canadian tar sands. Consultants Wood Mackenzie say the major oil and gas companies have shelved 46 large projects, deferring $200bn of investments.

The problem for the Saudis is that US shale frackers are not high-cost. They are mostly mid-cost, and as I reported from the CERAWeek energy forum in Houston, experts at IHS think shale companies may be able to shave those costs by 45pc this year - and not only by switching tactically to high-yielding wells...

MUCH MORE DETAIL AND HARD NUMBERS AT LINK

[Demeter]

15. Buffett Deal Pursuit Reshapes Berkshire as Mutual Fund Era Ends

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-09/buffett-deal-pursuit-reshapes-berkshire-as-mutual-fund-era-ends

Weeks from his 85th birthday, Warren Buffett is again seeking to reshape Berkshire Hathaway Inc. with the next few decades in mind.

The second-richest man in the U.S. is in talks to buy Precision Castparts Corp., which makes equipment for the aerospace and energy industries, and had a market value of more than $26 billion Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter. Acquiring the company would add about $10 billion in annual revenue and 30,000 employees, boosting the workforce at Berkshire by almost 10 percent.

A deal would push Berkshire further into heavy industry and cut reliance on insurance and stock picking, growth engines for most of Buffett’s 50 years in charge. Today’s Berkshire, with BNSF railroad and renewable energy holdings, could hardly have been imagined in the mid 1990s when the Buffalo News and shoe businesses were prominent units and the company was considered a mutual fund because of its equity holdings.

“Those days are gone,” Lawrence Cunningham, a professor at George Washington University and author of the book “Berkshire Beyond Buffett,” said in an interview. “It’s really an industrial operation now.”

OUT WITH THE FINANCE, ON WITH THE MANUFACTURING...BUT ISN'T IT TOO LATE?

[Demeter]

16. The Seventh-Largest Economy in the World Spirals Down by Wolf Richter

CHINA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA....SOMEBODY'S TRYING TO LEVEL THE BRICS!

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/06/getting-worse-and-worse-in-brazil-service-sector-manufacturing-financial-crisis-hsbc-bradesco/

HSBC, which knows a thing or two about the world, and about Brazil, is bailing out of Brazil.

It’s unloading its “entire business in Brazil,” it said this week, including retail banking and insurance. It will hand its long list of wealthy clients and over 21,000 employees to Bradesco, one of the largest private banks in Brazil, for $5.2 billion. Too much? Bradesco’s stock has since plunged over 9%. Once the deal gets regulatory approval and closes, HSBC is out of Brazil. “The transaction represents a significant step in the execution of the actions announced during the Investor Update on 9 June 2015,” it said. After that update, Reuters had described HSBC’s motivations with these choice words:

For shareholders, betting on Brazil was risky as lenders grapple with tax hikes, weak credit demand, rising defaults, and the impact of what looks likely to be the country’s worst recession in over two decades.

The seventh largest economy in the world in 2014, according to the World Bank, is spiraling down, with private sector output, as Markit put it, falling at the “sharpest pace since March 2009.” This is how Markit titled its Brazil Services PMI report on Wednesday: “Service sector activity drops at joint-fastest rate in survey history.” The index hit 39.1 in July (50 is the dividing line between contraction and expansion), the fifth month in a row of contraction, with all sub-sectors in the survey “registering substantial falls in business activity.”

To add to the toxic mix, costs soared, with the rate of increase reaching an 81-month high, third fasted in survey history, due to “inflationary pressures, exchange rate factors, and client fee adjustment.” No green shoots in the immediate future: new orders fell for the fifth month in a row. The “deteriorating operating environment” caused the pace of job losses to accelerate “to a survey record.” Some companies still nurtured glimmers of hope: 29% of them expected activity to be higher in one year, based on the notion that the economy would somehow recover “in the coming months.”

This gloomy report on the service sector came on the heels of Markit’s Manufacturing PMI report, which had inched up to a less dreadful 47.2 in July, but remained “among the lowest since 2011, reflecting a slumping economy.” There too were some glimmers of hope, such as the “stabilization” of export orders and slower rates of declines in some categories, but mostly it was unadulterated gloom: “Brazil’s manufacturing slump extended to July.” New orders and production were in contraction for the sixth month in a row, “with tough economic conditions being widely cited by survey respondents.” Companies tried to control their ballooning costs by shedding jobs. And they cut their purchases for the sixth month in a row, and did so at an accelerating pace as “operating conditions continued to deteriorate.” This led to a decline in inventories for the seventh month in a row. Markit:

Sub-sector data highlighted broad-based declines in new orders, output, buying levels, and employment, with contractions noted across the three monitored market groups. The worst performing category in July was capital goods. Latest data pointed to a ninth consecutive monthly increase in cost burdens faced by Brazilian goods producers.

While services companies and manufactures were able to raise selling prices on average to deal with inflationary pressures, they couldn’t do so enough as “strong competition restricted some firms’ pricing power.” Hence more cost cutting where they could: In the private sector overall, job shedding “accelerated to the quickest since April 2009.”

Markit concluded that the “overall scenario” was “bleak”:

The survey indicates that the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors suffered the largest fall since early-2009. Weak demand, high interest rates, fiscal tightening, strong inflation, and rising unemployment are expected to continue to hamper activity in forthcoming months.

These references in both reports to the trough of the Financial Crisis and to data that is the worst “in survey history” make for a chilling read. Brazil’s economic problems run deep; and a good part – as in most countries – is home-brewed….And the Brazilian real dropped to $0.2829, the lowest since 2003, down 35% from a year ago.

Perhaps it’s possible to clean up the way business got done. But the financial uncertainty and upheaval is wreaking havoc on the economy. HSBC must have seen that this wasn’t just a short-term blip, something that would blow over in a few months. It must have had visions of corporate defaults cascading through the banking system. Perhaps it imagined the possibility of other un-pleasantries that could get very costly for a bank. At any rate, it got out at a big valuation while it still could.

[Demeter]

17. My rough transcript of Jon Stewart's extraordinary "Bullshit is everywhere" speech. Dave Itzkoff

[Demeter]

19. Gas Drops Below $2.25 in Some States

I PAID $2.33 SUNDAY....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-drops-below-2-25-103545521.html

If falling oil prices are a sign of things to come in the market for gasoline prices, then in some states where the cost of an average gallon of regular has dropped below $2.25, it is likely still falling. The average price of a gallon of regular nationwide is $2.59, down from $2.76 a month ago. Over the same period, the price of crude oil has fallen from $55 to under $44. While state taxes and transportation costs are contributors, price of oil is the primary driver of gas prices.

The price of gas has dropped to $2.22 in Alabama, $2.24 in Mississippi and $2.20 in South Carolina, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge. Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana should join the group below $2.25 soon. These states do have the two other advantages for low gas prices. First, all are near refineries or have large refineries inside their borders. Also, the American Petroleum Institute (API) analysis of gas taxes and fees by state, called the State Motor Fuel Tax Report, shows that all three states with prices under $2.25 have among the lowest in the country. All are below $0.40 per gallon. The same holds true in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas.

However, the last time gas prices were below $2 in a number of states, the price of oil was below $50. Recently, gas prices reached a one-year low. If recent history is any guide, the price of gas nationwide will move to $2.25, and a number of states will drop to prices much lower. As Yogi Berra once said, "It's deja vu all over again."

[Demeter]

20. The Great Unwind Has Begun, Bankruptcies Soar by Wolf Richter

QE IS OVER, THEN? ALL OUT OF MAGIC TRICKS AT THE FED?

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/07/the-great-unwind-has-begun-bankruptcies-soar/

The junk-bond market lost money in July. Not a lot, 0.62%. But it did so after having already lost money in June. It was the third losing month so far this year, despite their “high” coupon payments that make these bonds look so juicy to yield-desperate fund managers.

Until recently, they were superb investments, riding up the credit boom. Junk-bond guru Marty Fridson, CIO of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, explained it this way in a note for S&P Capital IQ LCD:

Strategists frequently take the easy way out in their year-ahead outlooks by predicting that the high-yield market will “earn the coupon.” At this stage, 2015 is shaping up as another year that makes false prophets of those who assumed, in the face of overwhelming experience to the contrary, that it would be free of both positive and negative shocks.

But it’s just the timid beginning.

The Fed hasn’t even raised interest rates yet, and the largest credit bubble in history continues to inflate. But it has begun to hiss hot air at the margins where the riskiest junk bonds, rated CCC or below, have plunged in value and where average yields have soared from a ludicrous low of 8% a year ago to over 13% now. That rout is far from over.

No matter how terrible and obvious the risks, fund managers, driven to near insanity by the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy, held their noses and closed their eyes and picked up the worst junk, thus continuing to fund over-leveraged, money-losing, cash-flow negative companies that should have been restructured or liquidated years ago.

These investors provided the new money that kept the charade going and bailed out the old money. Energy companies are at the center. But it’s spreading beyond them. And all this debt on their balance sheets is now coming home to roost, under the supervision of the courts...

MORE

[mother earth]

21. Best 'toon ever!!!