Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumChina Will Soon Leapfrog Traditional Leaders in Nuclear Power
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/539691/china-will-soon-leapfrog-traditional-leaders-in-nuclear-power/[font size=4]China generates only about 2 percent of its total electricity using nuclear power, but it is adding new reactors much faster than any other country.[/font]
By Mike Orcutt on July 27, 2015
[font size=3]China is rapidly moving up the global nuclear power leaderboard. Since 2012, as the traditional leaders in nuclear energy production have remained stagnant or backed off of their reliance on nuclear in the wake of Fukushima, China has added 11 new reactors and over 11 gigawatts of nuclear generating capacity.
By the end of this year, China is expected to pass Russia and South Korea and boast the fourth-largest nuclear generating capacity in the world, behind the United States, France, and Japan. By 2020 it will likely replace Japan in third place.
This trend shows no signs of slowing, because China has huge ambitions for adding new reactors, including advanced reactor designs, in the coming decades (see Nuclear Options). The country plans to increase its capacity from 23 gigawatts currently to 58 gigawatts by 2020, at which point it is also aiming to have 30 additional gigawatts under construction, according to the World Nuclear Association. Right now, of the 64 reactors being built around the world, 24 are in China15 more than in second-place Russia.
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djean111
(14,255 posts)and are transitioning to solar and wind? Not to mention safety reasons? I never thought of China as caring much about safety or pollution, really.
FBaggins
(26,778 posts)That's why they're passing everyone else in hydro, wind, solar, and coal too.
djean111
(14,255 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)FBaggins
(26,778 posts)There is no "trend away from nuclear" in China. There's a strong trend toward nuclear.
And China is far from the only example.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)That gulf is expected to widen.
FBaggins
(26,778 posts)Nor was that a true statement (they spent FAR more than $9B in 2014).
Sneider used two different methods for estimating spend on each technology. The one that he used for nuclear very "conveniently" only counted reactors that began construction during that year (making the Fukushima pause look artificially large).
If he does the same thing for 2015 (I doubt that he will), then the number shoots up as 6-8 reactors begin construction during the year.
But hey! If you want to go on record as believing that a country can have ~25 GWs of nuclear under construction for a mere $9Billion/year (and falling)... by all means.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)It isn't that I don't trust you, it is just that you tend to fudge the facts a lot.
As an aside - on the same issue of fudging what references actually say, now that I have specifics from you on the irsn paper I'll be doing a more thorough evaluation of your assertions. You'll see it sometime this evening.
FBaggins
(26,778 posts)Lol. You're not a liar... you just don't tell the truth very often ? How touching.
For which claim are you seeking evidence? Schneider's document tells you where he gets his numbers from... but it's simple enough to decide for yourself whether the claim is at all plausible. They're putting at least half a dozen new reactors into service this year (with several more in the next couple years). Does it strike you as even possible that they did that and only spent $9Billion in 2014? If it does, don't you have to drop any claims to nuclear being too expensive?
For ongoing costs? I can point you to any number of articles showing the number of reactors starting construction in 2015/2016/2017. You're left with the same quandary... is it possible for the $9Billion figure to decline yet start construction on 22 new units in three years?
I'll be doing a more thorough evaluation of your assertions. You'll see it sometime this evening.
Is there really a need? Surely you can look up the multiple Gen IV reactor models that are completing prototypes over the next decade and know that whatever it is they're saying... it isn't that there's really only one that will even reach a prototype phase in the next 35 years. I have no doubt that you can spin something else from the report as not quite saying what I said that it said... but you obviously won't find them saying that it's wasting time/money to work on GenIV reactors... nor that there's "no answer for the drawbacks" (when they spend multiple pages going over the answers).
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)(Updated 29 July 2015)[font size=3]
- Mainland China has 26 nuclear power reactors in operation, 25 under construction, and more about to start construction.
- Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give more than a three-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 58 GWe by 2020-21, then some 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
- ...
- Chinas policy is for closed fuel cycle.
- ...
- Chinas policy is to go global with exporting nuclear technology including heavy components in the supply chain.