2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum32.6% percent of all pledged convention delegates have already been awarded to Hillary, 60/40 margin
from Nate Cohn at NYT:
If Mr. Sanderss victory in Michigan could be explained easily by some quirk in the state, perhaps Mrs. Clinton and her allies could write it off. But without an explanation, one has to wonder whether it will be the start of a trend a bad sign for Mrs. Clintons chances in other industrial states like Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Maybe its a reason to take the Sanders campaigns assertions of strength in California or New York two states where Mrs. Clinton ought to be favored more seriously.
But in the end, none of it seems like quite enough for a victory for Mr. Sanders. Mrs. Clinton has already banked too much of a lead. As an example, the PredictWise chances for a Clinton victory changed only from 95 percent to 93 percent from Tuesday to today...
(32.6?) percent of all of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention have already been awarded. Shes won those delegates by roughly a 60-40 margin.
To overcome it, Mr. Sanders will need to do nearly as well from this point on. Not even the very strong showing for Mr. Sanders imagined above would be enough.
In fact, it still wouldnt be very close. Mr. Sanders basically splits the delegates with Mrs. Clinton the rest of the way leaving him far short of the big 15-point advantage he needs.
Mrs. Clinton still wins clear victories in diverse or affluent states like Florida, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey the only four states where she breaks 55 percent of the vote in this projection. The problem for Mr. Sanders is that many of these states are far larger than the places where he hopes to excel.
The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole hes already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger.
Mr. Sanders needs landslides to counter landslides. Not even the results from Tuesday suggest hes on pace to get them, at least not in states with enough delegates to counter Mrs. Clintons lead.
read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/upshot/bernie-sanderss-win-in-michiganprobably-wont-change-therace.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)bigtree
(86,016 posts)...two-points in MI isn't going to cut it for Bernie.
"The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole hes already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger."
Response to bigtree (Original post)
floppyboo This message was self-deleted by its author.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)I'm curious to see if Michigan was a fluke or if he can duplicate that performance in Ohio and other states where the polls have him down big. I think he got blown out by too much in the southern states to win. You can't lose a bunch of large states by 40-50 points or more and expect to get the nomination.
bigtree
(86,016 posts)"Imagine, for instance, a brutal stretch for Mrs. Clinton, one where she underperforms the demographic projections by as much as she did in Michigan for the rest of the year.
She loses in Ohio and Missouri next Tuesday...more"
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)bigtree
(86,016 posts)thomservo
(147 posts)bigtree
(86,016 posts)...roughly 60/40
Total Pledged Delegates Available: 4051
Clinton Pledged Delegates: 768
% of Pledged Delegates already awarded to Clinton: 18.9%
(% of Pledged Delegates already awarded to Sanders: 13.6%)
You might want to fix that ridiculously misleading headline.
bigtree
(86,016 posts)...wait, I think the writer is changing that in his article..
just found this on his twitter:
Datoism @Datoism
@Nate_Cohn i believe there is a mistake in your latest article delegate count
http://goo.gl/CnttoI
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 1h1 hour ago
I think this is right/ I messed up. Will correct
ieoeja
(9,748 posts)The "math does not work" meme does not work.
George II
(67,782 posts)...Clinton needs to win 46% of the remaining delegates to achieve a majority of pledged delegates, and Sanders needs to win 54% to achieve a majority of pledged delegates.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)just a bit just in case is a good thing for everyone.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,919 posts)If that starts getting stripped away from her things can start shifting rapidly. Hell, Michigan shifted rapidly
tabasco
(22,974 posts)Big deal. Let the people vote.
bigtree
(86,016 posts)...it's just one man's handicap of the race.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)that Sanders won by a difference of 29% (real vote) or + 40% if you want to count the polls from just days before that had Clinton up 10%.
Didn't hear? Oh ya, someone scheduled a debate for return time. Bernie held off his gloating till the very end. I wonder, if the pollsters had been right what the narrative of the debate would have been?
Still shaking my head about this one...
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)That way, the split cited would actually be informative.
jillan
(39,451 posts)I'm assuming you're talking about actual delegates, not superdelegates that do not vote until the convention?
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)..lot's of good points of discussion.
And Nate Cohn's a good writer. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn
bravenak
(34,648 posts)He's good at what he does.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)Super delegates have been unwilling to overturn pledged delegates selection in the past. They are likely to be as unwilling this time around.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,159 posts)and Hillary's best states are basically done.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)peeling away as Bernie catches on outside of the Republican Red South. It's happened before and it's Hillary's worst nightmare.