2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe way I see it.
There are two groups here: The Dems who have party loyalty and vote Dem and the grassroots type Dems who arent party loyalists but belive in progressive/ liberal principles. I belive that neither group can win this election alone. That isnt to say my opinion matters to you but it is, alas, my opinion. Dems make up about 30% of the electorate, Reps make up 30%, and Indies, or swing voters make up the other 30%. What excites me about this election is that we are in a position to unite the Dems and Indies. Unfortunately, party loyalty is slightly higher than the grassroots at this moment. We are halfway through this primary with half of the voters still left to count. By no means is the Sanders campaign done. If he wins the rest by slighty higher margins, he wins. Teams dont quit until the buzzer rings. Get out the vote and stop fighting on the web. Fight instead for our right to choose who we want to represent us. See you at the finish line. I dont quit at halftime.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)He needs to win the remaining states by +16 average.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)brooklynite
(94,852 posts)...the flame wars that go on in an anonymous political blog have no impact on voting behavior in the real world. There was some chest-thumping by PUMA types in 2008 that amounted to nothing; Democrats from both campaigns came together, with moderate Independents and Republicans to elect President Obama. The same will happen this year.
tokenlib
(4,186 posts)Of course I don't blame you. Most people usually do fall in line, even straggling into line. But we have been doing the lesser of evils thing ever since the New Dem/ Wall Street friendly types took over the party. We always enabled the Third Way/ DLC crowd..and even reaffirmed their belief that the progressive/ New Deal crowd had nowhere left to go.
But the parties have been shrinking, and voters have been declaring independence. Sizable groups in both parties want to say FU to the establishment. Economic security is declining for the masses, free trade and multinationals are destroying the well being of millions. Economic concerns are beginning to dominate decency and political correctness. People don't trust the status quo to solve things..and Hillary is the status quo.
One of these days the revolt will be real and Republicans and Dems won't fall into line. This is an insurgent year. Don't be so presumptuous..
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... of anonymous individuals and certain personality types who CHOOSE to be here.
I do know some Bernie supporters in real life, and NONE OF THEM are anything at all like the Bernie supporters that I've seen here. NONE! (Same goes for Hillary supporters to a lesser degree, but the most striking difference is in Bernie supporters... for obvious reasons.)
LWolf
(46,179 posts)I see no point in party loyalty if the party is not solid on progressive/liberal principles.
And that's a divide that simply will not be bridged.
I'm not quitting at half-time, either. Frankly, I'm here for the principles, not for the principals. I'll be where ever the focus is on those principles, and I won't be where the principals are more important.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)yourself out of the game. So why are you here? Why the need to tell us you won't matter in November?
I think it is narcissism or something.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)1. I don't concede the primary yet.
2. I'm never taking myself out of the game. The part you are not getting is that my game is a different game than yours.
3. It is the antithesis of narcissism to put the welfare of the planet, of her living things this generation and into the future, before personal considerations.
Really, what you don't get is my game. It's not a partisan game. It's not about party politics at all. It's bigger than that, and both more immediate and longer term than that.
Somebody today just put up an OP about a 12 level chess game referring to Obama's SC nomination. To be honest, I don't really buy into the multi-level, too smart for the rest of us chess analogies. I do, though, see things from a different perspective than many.
Here's just one example: as someone who cares about issues, I see electing a Democratic neo-liberal to be a disaster.
If we elect a Republican, there's no question. There's going to be strong opposition from Democrats in Congress to whatever bad policy is proposed. It won't be pretty, it won't be okay, but at least a line will be drawn in the sand and defended.
If we elect a neo-liberal Democrat, there's going to be a ton of bad policy proposed, and Democrats are not going to oppose it out of party loyalty. So past progress will be continually eroded, bad policy will steadily become more and more "legitimate" to the Democratic masses, compromising the issues away become accepted business as usual, and things keep getting worse. That line in the sand will keep moving further and further away.
I simply do not see that as a goal, nor do I see it as a win.
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Somewhere around 65%. Each time he doesn't do that the percentage he needs to win by increases as the number of delegates available decreases.
He most certainly will not win NY, PA and most likely not AZ. So he will need greater than 65% in the other states after that. Hillary will pic up delegates in every state Bernie wins also, so winning where he is favored does not put him closer by much then comes the states where Hillary is favored.
I know it isn't what you want to hear but that is the way it is. The voters in the finished primary states have decided that.
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leftofcool
(19,460 posts)The most delegates he will gain is about 25 in all 5 states combined.