Nate has HRC surging in WI

[Cryptoad]

not a good sign for Bern since he needs to win by 40 pts

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

1. Your queen already high-tailed out of WI...

She is not surging, she is racing to try and stop the impending reality that NY is going to feel the bern

[NuclearDem]

2. ...

[Tanuki]

23. No, she just spoke at the Democratic Party Fundraiser in Milwaukee. I saw it live on c-span

about a half hour ago. It's still on...Marcy Kaptur is speaking right now. Why make things up?

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

24. Yes, but she pulled out her resources and spending...

This dinner is different than campaigning in the state.

[itsrobert]

29. Please stop the falsehoods

http://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/04/02/hillary-clinton-supporters-rally-eau-claire/82551566/

People started lining up about 9:30 a.m. Saturday outside the hotel. The event required an overflow room, and some had to be turned away.

Many Clinton supporters who spoke to USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin said they favored Clinton over Sanders because Sanders ideas are too pie-in-the-sky to be achieved.

"I just don't think he's realistic," said Christina Hupy, an Eau Claire resident, who went to the Clinton rally at the request of her 8-year-old daughter, Katya.

"She might be the first girl president," added Katya.

Sanders's rhetoric "is a little old at this point," said Reed White, a UW-Eau Claire political science major. "And she's the best choice against Trump. Once they're on a debate stage together, we'll see how weak his ideas are."

White went to the rally alongside friends Denise Bustamante and Anna Schwanebeck from the College Democrats club at UW-Eau Claire.

His support of Clinton is not because he doesn't like Sanders ideas, White said. Sanders is just too ambitious and not practical enough.

Schwanebeck told USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin that she was most concerned with Sanders not being a lifelong Democrat. Sanders has been an independent in the Senate, but has often caucused with Democrats.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

36. Don't blame me....

I saw it reported on CNN... They were the ones claiming she pulled out. Sorry if it appeared I was trying to mislead.

[SheilaT]

30. Fundraiser. Hmmmm.

I wonder what the minimum dollar amount was to attend.

[PeaceNikki]

35. It's the Wisconsin Democratic Party Founders Day Gala. Sanders is there, too.

Along with Cecile Richards, and all of our AMAZING Wisconsin Democrats

[itsrobert]

26. Hillary is in Milwaukee tongiht after having campaign events in other parts of Wisconsin

Please stop playing the deception game. It does a disservice to your candidate when you repeat false allegations.

[morningfog]

3. 40 points? That's nonsense.

[NuclearDem]

6. You're reading the polls in the wrong order.

Most recent are at the top.

[brooklynite]

4. Not clear where you get surging...

...the detailed model analysis is 48.7 vs 48.6.

[Jitter65]

9. But she was losing by 5 or 6 yesterday. nt

[Cal Carpenter]

32. On a totally different poll in a primary season that is notoriously

confusing the pollsters, to say the least.

(And I just looked at the 538 link and I'm not sure what poll the OP is even referring to)

[Karmadillo]

5. Interesting surge when Sanders leads in three of the last four polls.

[basselope]

7. Going from a 85% favorite to underdog = "surging"

Sanders just has to win, especially after his blowouts in the last 3.

[november3rd]

8. I don't think so

If you look at the polling data he's basing his own predictions on, it's hard to see anything but Sanders leading in WI.

[Ed Suspicious]

10. Seriously, what the fuck are you talking about?

[Paulie]

11. PWD

[Kittycat]

12. From your own link, did you even read down?

*sigh*


POLLSTER SAMPLE WEIGHT LEADER

MAR. 28-30
Fox News 860 LV
Sanders +5
48%
43%

MAR. 28-29
Public Policy Polling 720 LV
Sanders +6
49%
43%

MAR. 28-29
Loras College 416 LV
Clinton +6
41%
47%

MAR. 24-28
Marquette Law School 405 LV
Sanders +4
49%
45%

[Perogie]

17. I read that Loras polling wasn't very accurate

The most accurate is Public Policy Polling and it shows Bernie by 6. I feel good about Bernie taking WI by at least 5 points.

[delrem]

13. Nate is so totally full of shit. He's a pretender.

He can't be that to-the-day accurate about such percentage swings.
He's been slinging bullshit from day one and he's been out by margins that make his predictions no better than those of any other person trying to spin a tale.

[Cryptoad]

19. I know,,,, even ole Krugman can't count beans

[delrem]

25. I don't understand the scale where you're ranking Nate Silver with Krugman.

I have a lot of respect for Krugman, for reasons that don't apply to Nate Silver.
So I think these are different conversations and a lot would have to get sorted first, before putting them on the same scale.

I'm just talking about Nate, here.

[Cal Carpenter]

42. Seriously, between the original post and the one you're replying to

this person sounds like a random word generator. Throwing out made up sentences sprinkled with key words and proper nouns.

[delrem]

44. I think you got it! Thank you. /nt

[Lucinda]

14. Interesting shift!

At least we don't have to wait too long to see how it turns out!

[Kittycat]

20. What shift?

You mean a single out of state college outlier out of 4 polls?

[Cryptoad]

15. this 4th way neoProgressive Math must be kinda like GOP Math.

[hellofromreddit]

16. Sanders needs 48 to stay par vs Clinton needs 38 to stay par

86 delegates available in the state.

Not a 40 point spread.

[Cryptoad]

18. not talking abt staying par

staying par in losing for Bern,,,,,, He has to win by 40 pts if he is going to catch up.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

21. No he has to win 56% of the delegates remaining...

[Cryptoad]

22. Mark my words

Ive got a lot of expensive papers that say I can count beans better than most!

[hellofromreddit]

43. Then show us your calculations

[geek tragedy]

27. That was due to one poll, which had some odd

crosstabs.

Sanders is still the heavy favorite there.

[pantsonfire]

28. Click Bait.......guess who won Nevada today? n/t

[Cryptoad]

33. More like who HooDooed Nv today

[TM99]

39. Hey, those Clinton delegates

could have taken on the responsibility to show up for the count, right?

That ain't hoodoo son, that is an enthusiasm gap.

Pretty damned funny to when all I have heard for months on these boards is how Sanders has huge rallies but his people won't turn out. Clinton doesn't have huge rallies but they are all adults who will do the responsible thing.

Or not....in this case....

[Ellipsis]

31. Yeah, well, fuck Nate...

Early voting is up 400%... 250,000 people have voted or asked for absentee ballots.

I have seen zero, nada, none, Hillary signs in rural Wisconsin... Even Ben Carson has done better then that. and I have been all over southwestern, central and northern Wisconsin.

Admittedly I'm in a blue county and it ain't Dane ... I see Bernie everywhere. From official Bernie signs and bumper stickers.. To lots and lots of homemade vote Bernie signs... And three cats that knocked on our door this morning for the Bern with a very nice 4 color Bernie brochure.

He's going to hit his 57% here.

[revbones]

34. ROFL the polls only forecast is 70% for Bernie

Polls plus is 51% which is because of endorsements...

Where is that magical surge???

[Jarqui]

37. Huh?

One year ago, Clinton was +44 in the polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
Clinton had led in Wisconsin since February 2014 (or before)

in the most recent poll, Clinton is now -5%

On your link to Nate's site:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

March 29th, Clinton has 83% chance of winning (as she had much all the time before), Sanders 17% chance of winning
Four days later, Clinton has 51% chance of winning, Sanders 49% chance of winning

In Nate's polls only forecast:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/#polls-only

March 29th, Clinton had 69% chance of winning, Sanders 31% chance of winning
Four days later, Clinton has 30% chance of winning, Sanders 70% chance of winning


And your conclusion is that Clinton is "surging" in Wisconsin? ???

[Gothmog]

38. That is good news

[TM99]

40. Silver has been wrong so many times

this election season that his predictions are not worth shit.

[Armstead]

41. Perhaps I'm stupid but the figures seem to contradict the conclusion

Sanders is ahead in almost all those polls listed, including the most heavily weighted ones.

Am I missing something?

[Jarqui]

45. Whoops! Wisconsin "Surge" all gone

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=post&forum=1251&pid=1633642

Chance of winning Wisconsin

Today
Sander 73%
Clinton 27%


March 29th
Clinton 83%
Sanders 17%

Seems the minute states find out who Sanders is and what he's about, the polls really change.

[Betty Karlson]

46. Why is Nate such a glutton for punishment?

He knows that such predictions can only end with more egg on his face...

[Bluenorthwest]

47. Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Michigan-Hillary-96%, Bernie-4%

That's from March Second.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511396698