2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie needs to lighten up.
First the math.
For Hillary to win the nomination she only needs to win 36% in the remaining states. Bernie would need to win 77% in ALL the remaining states.
Because of the Supreme Court it is CRITICAL that a dem win the White House.
Bernie needs to be careful not to give the repubs even more ammunition.
hereforthevoting
(241 posts)Or she might have another meltdown!
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)if you question HRC's stability.
I've already gotten a spanking today and hit on the nose with a rolled-up newspaper. I've gotten less punishment for knocking over the kitchen garbage... 🐶
pinebox
(5,761 posts)And to say "Bernie needs to be careful not to give the repubs even more ammunition" because heaven knows there isn't decades out there already against Hillary, right?
Here's the deal, Hillary supporters need to get serious and realize that a Hillary nomination is a Dem loss in the general. More than likely, Trump won't be the nominee and who does that leave? Cruz. She loses in polls against Cruz.
Are you afraid? You should be.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)shawn703
(2,702 posts)A landslide would help down ticket Dems more than fundraising ever would. Wouldn't you rather our New Democratic president work with a Democratic Congress than a Republican one?
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)So goes the what if game.
TM99
(8,352 posts)now yourself.
What if Sanders keeps running when the math says he will lose? Well you predict it will harm Clinton in the GE with the GOP.
You have a crystal ball now? You are psychic now?
That is what if think as well.
The bottom line is you think you are smarter than the rest of us so your what if is 'right' while our's is 'wrong'.
Yeah...
pinebox
(5,761 posts)because a few weeks ago it was the other way around.
Personally I think we'll see Paul Ryan probably get the nod. If that does indeed happen, it won't bode well for you Dems should Hillary be the nominee.
A Ryan/Cruz ticket?
In the end, I do believe Hillary will lose the GE if she is nominated. There are many liberals who will never support her. It is what it is.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)aikoaiko
(34,186 posts)Because the status quo lovers will use every lost vote against those who want to move the party left.
Bernie is not providing Republicans any ammunition.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)keep the momentum going.
Because it is CRITICAL that we not put another neoliberal in the WH.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)and Hillary can go back to the lecture circuit.
GoneOffShore
(17,346 posts)And the Saudis.
peace13
(11,076 posts)If you look back over the last four months, there hasn't been a day that there wasn't a new memo about what he should do. It was old then and it's really old now.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)aren't THEY usually the ones who need to take a long, hard look in the mirror?
pangaia
(24,324 posts)HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)Math...
Your point only 'works' if past trends overcome current trends, the more time Bernie has to campaign in a given state the worse the outcome it will be for HRC
HRC needs to be careful not to overlook the reality of this movement that is supporting Bernie
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)nothing to worry about, got it in the bag. . .
Tortiose and Hare much?
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)hellofromreddit
(1,182 posts)Show your work.
Where does your 77% number come from, what assumptions did you have to make in your calculations, and how do you justify them?
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)But keep believing that Bernie needs 77%.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)California has 548 delegates, right?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)475 pledge-able delegates, right? With the balance as super delegates?
Thanks.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)and plan to use against her if she is the candidate. Stop trying to set up excuses for when she loses, and it looks like she would lose, if nominated.
For fuck's sake, anyone with a computer and an internet link can find unsavory stuff about Hillary (and Bill) because it is already out there and because they actually did that stuff.
Pretending Bernie would use ammo the the GOP would never use is ridiculous. or stupid. or deliberately incorrect. And it is Hillary who plans a dirty campaign, not Bernie.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)The blinders and denial about this is truly astounding. Either they are idiots or they think we are idiots. or both.
I think most HRC loyalists just want us to sit down, STFU, and do as we are told.
They don't know me very well... 😆
Joob
(1,065 posts)Before you go all blah blah selfish blah on me.
Hillary herself said Bernie Sanders is not really a Democrat.
So don't think for a second, that a first time voter who votes Bernie Sanders is either. IF Bernie isn't a Democrat.
Quite frankly, I don't like how disgusting it is most Democrats defend Hillary Clinton.
And they do not understand that, not one little tiny bit.
I have been a Democrat all of my life, by the way, and I couldn't defend Hillary Clinton one little bit. There are lots of us.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)glad to know not everyone is onboard with Team Goldman Sachs... And those that defend taking Wall Street money and say we're being naive? I'd rather be considered naive than a tool for the corporate bastards who are crushing working-class and poor Americans for profit (and amusement, I reckon).
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)you're not thinking clearly through to the general, have fun.
Cal33
(7,018 posts)posts in the recent past where the same thing occurred. I don't understand this. Can
anyone explain? Thanks.
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)KPN
(15,677 posts)If there's a democratic candidate with an ego problem, it's the Queen.
Stuff like this reveals just how desperate and out of touch some folks are. Get with the program -- you are a Democrat, are you not?
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)That's why proclamations by poseurs like you don't mean much to me.
I've been backing Democratic candidates since before you cast your first ballot for Ron Paul.
Hahaha. You don't have a clue who you're talking to. I've been a registered Dem since 1969. Can you beat that gamer?
JudyM
(29,294 posts)CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)Will you?
JudyM
(29,294 posts)effort that is finally getting airtime.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)by far. Please stop this. You are only hurting Hillary by making her seem so desperate.
Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)Ain't buying bullshit with a heaping helping of fear today, thanks. Try again.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)If you're going to post something, at least make it something new and original..
Actually HILLARY should lighten up.. in fact why doesn't she just quit now.
The woman is insufferable.
Thank you for being straight-forward and honest -- sort of like Bernie, eh?
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Bernie is a better man than I am.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)He's winning state after state and his momentum keeps right on growing.
Whether Hillary or any of the other bought and paid for establishment goons like it or not is irrelevant. It's OUR party not theirs.
If you want campaign advice, give it to Ms Goldman Sachs. She's the one circling the bowl.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)stone space
(6,498 posts)But this indeed a worthy goal.
Silver_Witch
(1,820 posts)That must win the supporters. If Hillary can not convince Dems to join her in the GE that is in no way Bernie's doing. It is Hillary's task to persuade his supporters to join her team in the event she wins the primaries. Same for Bernie of course should he win.
Hillary could start by releasing her transcripts of speeches to Wall Street so we know what she says behind closed doors.
Next she could promise woman she would not make a deal with republicans limiting women's access to birth control and healthcare (which she has said she WILL do to open talks).
Finally she would be wise to keep her hawkish beliefs and step away from associating with Kissinger!
Three easy steps!
artislife
(9,497 posts)And why would we want to hide her faults? We have a Dem in the White House and we still don't have a replacement in place for Scalia. What we need is a congress full of progressives. She has very little pull in bringing them in.
roody
(10,849 posts)Jarqui
(10,131 posts)The real math is closer to Hillary must win 44% of the remaining elected delegates to win the primary contest for elected delegates.
Super delegates don't count because they can switch their vote like they did for Obama when he won the most elected delegates.
Secondly, of the two candidates, the person with the best chance to win the White House against the GOP is Bernie Sanders. His advantage is even greater on a state by state basis and has steadily improved as he gone around from state to state to campaign. By the end of the primary, he will be even stronger than he is now.
v Trump Clinton +10.8, Sanders +16.0
v Cruz Clinton +3.1, Sanders +9.8
v Kasich Clinton -6.3, Sanders +1.3
On average, Sanders does 6.5 pts better than Clinton against the top 3 GOP contenders and beats all of them. Clinton is already losing pretty badly to Kasich, has nothng over Cruz and barely beats Trump.
So there is no question: the best bet if the Supreme Court concerns a Dem is Bernie Sanders. Between Hillary and Bernie, Bernie has the best chance to win the White House over a GOP candidate.
As for ammunition, the pending email scandal, the pending Clinton Foundation scandal and the Panama Papers along with all of her prior scandals that will get revisited has resulted in a GOP office being opened in 2014 to test market damaging ads for two years before the election against Hillary. The biggest election debate for the GOP will be which Hillary hit ads to run with Koch money. Elect Bernie Sanders in the primary and that problem disappears.
Hillary also has this problem:
"Marist Poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton"
The reason Sanders does better is proven by the same reason Clinton supporters whine about open primaries. Independents and Republicans like Bernie much better than Hillary. Hillary hatred is likely to bring out more GOP votes against the Dems.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)The New York primary will be the final reality check.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)nt
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)I know Bernie wouldn't nominate corporate toadies who are soft on social issues.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Therefore all that follows it is also wrong.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Clinton, SOS, UBS CIA...speaking fees.... doobie doobie
It's all just a big circle jerk and we ain't invited.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)all they'll have to do is wait for Hillary to lose.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)either way, please show your calculations.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)And the math makes it almost impossible for him to get ahead.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)which, is quite possible
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Get over it! He fighting to win. Imagine that.