At what point, when Sanders continues to cut the delegate lead down...

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

Do you think Hillarian supporters will abandon the Maths argument? Is it when he breaks under 100? 50?

We've heard the math argument for weeks and weeks... It isn't deterring us.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. Never.

Even if he passes her in pledged delegates, they'll be saying 'tough', superdelegates take it.

[Lil Missy]

2. At what point do Sanders supporters understand Math?

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

5. I understand that he is 6% ahead of his 57% Targets for this half of the primary. nt

[Renew Deal]

6. That's not math. That's vapor

That's what they tell you to keep donating. You think they wanted to be down 200+ delegates? Think again.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

10. If so certain you are...

Then why has the Clinton Campaign decided to initiate a "scorched earth" campaign strategy... If the math was impossible to win why would she not instead focus on the GE, repukes, and abandoning all her progressive positions and pivoting more to the right?

[leftynyc]

12. So you could whine and

complain how she's ignoring you and Bernie? Contrary to what many of you believe, she's doesn't have a stupid bone in her entire body.

[Else You Are Mad]

27. Nope.

Just corrupt ones.

[Renew Deal]

13. Optics

I didn't say the math was impossible. It's not. It's just highly unlikely. And as for your last claim, that's a Sanders supporter fantasy. It's not reality.

[Dawgs]

14. Simple question. Is it mathematically possible for Bernie to win more delegates than Hillary?

And, superdelegates don't count.

[tgards79]

19. He needs 60% of the rest.

So yes, impossible.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

21. No He needs 56.5% remaining

[rock]

23. And before yesterday's win

He needed 55.6% remaining. Feel the bern.

[bobbobbins01]

43. Um no...his number has been 56.5%.

And he's hit that(actually .1% over). It was actually 57% not that long ago, but since he's overperforming, he cut that down a little.

[rock]

44. No, yesterday he needed 56.5%

He won 55.6%. At least by my calculations. Feel the bern.

[bobbobbins01]

50. Your calculations are wrong.

Sorry.

[rock]

52. It's possible

Delgate math is hard on purpose, the politicians insist. And if I am I apologize.

[Lil Missy]

24. From what I understand, superdelegates don't count .... unless Bernie needs them.

If Bernie needs superdelegates, and needs to steal them, then his supporters are all for superdelegates.

[Dawgs]

25. I didn't say he didn't need them.

He does. And if he wins the most pledged votes then he will get them.

Now, are you going to answer my question?

[Lil Missy]

26. Okay.

The answer is NO. Not possible.

[pangaia]

51. At what point does Hillary understand democracy?

Never. She doesn't care

[lunamagica]

3. At what point?

[Renew Deal]

4. Never

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

And you should lay off the childish name calling.

[DemocracyDirect]

7. Goalposts Will Be Moved

I've seen it happen over and over again.

[madokie]

39. that goal post is on wheels

and has been for some time now. Much easier to move that way

[reformist2]

49. LOL!

[FSogol]

8. Probably not after NY_, Skippy or Pennsylvania

[msanthrope]

31. I love you. nt

[Number23]

35. Ahhhhh......

I'm surprised that Sid isn't all over this. He's usually the Watcher 'round these parts.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

9. At what point do you do what Bernie has done from day one, ignore the negative and

go for the positive?

The vast majority of Bernie supporters on this political message board and in general from what I can tell, unlike myself, focus almost entirely on Hillary's negatives and not Bernie's positives.

[pdsimdars]

15. Not a clear observation.

Bernie supporters are the real positive ones. Ever look at those pictures of his rallies. Those are happy people filled with life, enthusiasm and energy. Then look at those Hillary "gatherings" where the people look like they are watching a amateur golf match.

And on this board, Bernie supporters put up very happy posts.

What you are probably seeing is when Hillary puts out a smear, or her supporters put up the daily meme, Bernie supporters actually push back against the lies and smears. You are mistakenly seeing this push back against the lies as a "focus on Hillary's negatives".

If she didn't keep putting those negatives out there, no one would be pushing on them.

[firebrand80]

11. Brining up math isn't an effort to deter anybody

It's meant point out that, unless something earth-shattering happens, Hillary is very likely to be the nominee, because her current lead is nearly insurmountable given everything we know about the race thus far.

[jonestonesusa]

36. Sanders' supporters have the internet just like you.

So we can look up the math - it's all over the media, even as the lead is shrinking. Clinton supporters purposefully refer to the delegate counts even in threads that are about other issues. Kinda like whitesplaining, the Clinton fangirl version. Pretending it's not an attempt at discouraging the Sanders campaign is just disingenuous.

[jeff47]

16. Nah, they just increase the percentage that he has to win by

claiming that The Math™ requires a larger margin of victory despite beating the previous margins of victory.

I fully expect claims that Sanders has to win New York by 80% because of The Math™.

[zappaman]

17. LOL!

[beaglelover]

18. We know. Math isn't the Bernouts strongsuit.

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

20. I don't think anybody takes 6-month out polling seriously

The "establishment" is 100% convinced that Hillary is the only chance to win the election among the general electorate.

It's really remarkable that both parties have the exact same concerns about the primaries.

The comforting thought for the Democratic Party establishment is that Hillary is leading.

For the GOP establishment their "Bernie" is leading and their "Hillaries" have already dropped out.

[Orsino]

22. Another goddamned "supporters" thread.

This primary is about so much more than scoring points off fellow DUers.

[JimDandy]

30. Supporters are the essence of a campaign.

So what supporters might, or might not do, is fair game. Especially in this campaign where Hillary supporters and her campaign have to ignore issues because they are detrimental to her electability. Clinton's campaign has put the huge emphasis on supporters, like something I've never seen before. That sandbox has become a big play place, now. Ridiculous as a focus? Yes, but there it is...

[MFM008]

28. be happy with ideological purity and feel proud

when Trump/Cruz or Ryan take that walk into the white house.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

29. Are you just spamming that in any Pro-Bernie OP?

This post had nothing to do with Ideological purity...

[StevieM]

32. When he actually goes about changing the math by winning states he is expected to lose and

winning them by wide margins.

That means that he won't get too much credit for winning a caucus in Wyoming.

But if he can win New York on April 19 by the margin he won Pennsylvania by then he will get a great deal of credit. Then he will be expected to follow up with equally big wins on April 26 in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, while minimizing the margin of his loss in Maryland.

At that point the math argument will go away. And it is only 13 days until NY and 20 days until the 5 state Super Tuesday. So you won't have to wait long.

But as it stands now Sanders is trailing in NY by 10-12 points and has yet to lead in a single poll for an April 26 state.

[SheilaT]

33. You haven't noticed that he's won

a bunch of states that the polling showed him losing? I'll just point out one example, two polls. The day before the Wisconsin Primary one poll had Clinton ahead by 1 point, Sanders by 8. You might want to refresh your memory as to what his win margin was last night.

There have been lots of others all along.

And two weeks out from the NY primary, given that Bernie has been steadily eroding Hillary's lead, I'd say he stands an excellent chance of winning. Especially when we think about how many more people will be able to attend his rallies than cough up thousands of dollars for one of her fundraisers.

[StevieM]

34. Since Hillary's big wins in 5 states (Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, Missouri)

Last edited Wed Apr 6, 2016, 06:59 PM - Edit history (1)

Sanders has mostly won caucus states. He was expected to win them all and to win them big.

Wisconsin is a primary and his win there was impressive. But it is a state that many were saying was tailor made for him and it was an open primary.

I just don't think you can compare that to New York or Pennsylvania, let alone Maryland.

But as I said, you only have to wait 13 days to prove me wrong (with a bunch of gloating on Saturday after a big win in Wyoming). The OP asked when I would acknowledge a change in perceptions regarding the math. I answered: 13-20 days.

That's also the point when I expect Sanders supporters to come to different conclusions about the math. Some will accept it. Others will look to the super delegates.

Of course, I could be wrong. We'll see.

[jonestonesusa]

37. The general election is very similar to an open primary.

Anyone can vote for any party.

Why do Clinton fans act like open primaries are less legitimate than a closed primary? Both Clinton and Sanders have the same opportunities to earn votes in an open primary.

What's really being acknowledged is that compared to Sanders, Clinton tanks with independent voters, which are now a plurality of the electorate. A savvy campaign would note this fact and find a way to appeal to those voters. Will the Clinton campaign ever be that savvy?

[StevieM]

45. Did you read the post I was replying to?

The issue being discussed was the differences between Wisconsin and New York. I listed them, including having a closed primary in NY. I was explaining why I didn't think his win in Wisconsin indicated that he was on his way to a NY victory.

I honestly believe that as the GE progresses Hillary will improve with independents, while Bernie sinks with them. That is pretty much the same thing we heard from Sanders supporters a year ago, when the polls showed the opposite then they do now. People said his numbers would improve and hers would get worse. They did and they did. I don't dispute that. But my instinct and my analysis tells me that they will each flip again if given the nomination.

Maybe I am wrong, but that is my judgement.

[jonestonesusa]

48. My main point is this.

Sanders' strengths are often pointed to as deficits, as is the case with open primaries and caucases. When did the assumption emerge that Sanders is supposed to win these? When did the assumption emerge that Clinton shouldn't expect to win a state like WI? 538 expected a Clinton win. I expected a Clinton win, and I live in WI.

The net effects of the now-conventional expectations about Sanders' wins is to downplay the effectiveness of his campaign strategy and the significance of each win. The MSM, including the NYT and WaPo, make a standard practice of saying that Sanders won, but...white voters, rural state, caucuses, yata yata. The narrative about Sanders' supposed deficits is unbroken. The narrative about the Clinton campaign's losing streak is minimized. We sure didn't hear Clinton's Iowa Caucus win dismissed in this glib way, the way that Sanders' possible big win in Wyoming is pre-dismissed.

Nothing personal, I just find these narratives to be an unfair advantage that the MSM constantly grants to Clinton.

[madokie]

41. What do you mean, Big Wins such as Missouri

she barely squeaked that one out. Some say without shenanigans she wouldn't have. So there's that

[StevieM]

46. I was referring to her big night. Obviously Missouri and Illinois were close contests,

but the night was a big win for her.

There is not one drop of evidence that there were shenanigans in Missouri. Hillary won fair and square, just like Bernie won his states fair and square.

[jfern]

38. If Bernie takes the pledged delegate lead, they'll talk about Hillary's superdelegate lead

Just like in 2008.

[KingFlorez]

40. Even if he wins everything left by 55-45, he still falls short

Which means he has to win every state left and get at least 60% to take the delegate lead. Considering that there are really no more caucuses left, that's pretty much impossible. He hasn't broken 60% in a primary since Vermont.

[corbettkroehler]

42. Divide By Never, Carry The "When Hell Freezes Over"

If we were talking about people interested in debating facts such as a candidate's momentum, we could have a civil, spirited debate. I tried that and got myself banned from the HRC group.

Until Sanders had the nomination and there's nothing the Clinton camp can do about it, the shilling will persist.

[dana_b]

47. when the MSN keeps pushing the nonsense of her being

700 delegates ahead - that she only need 33% and he needs 67% or something like that, why would they stop?? It fits their narrative.