2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOK look #ImWithHer #FeelTheMath folks I'm on your side but I'm worried
In 2008 Barack Hussein Obama did a wonderful thing. He brought in a whole bunch of young first time voters into the election process. He attracted a whole bunch of Independent voters. He energized the Democratic Base He brought in a whole bunch of people who had't been involved in the political process before. He won against the Establishment based on "Hope and Change".
In 2016 Bernie Sanders is bringing in a whole lot of people who were too young into 2008 into the election process. He attracted a whole lot of Independent voters. And he brought in a whole lot of people who haven't been involved in the political process because "all politics is corrupt". He's winning against the Establishment based on "Political Revolution".
Here's a thing: Remember Hillary's supporters who wouldn't give up last time? #PUMAs "Party Unity My Ass" Democrats who were going to hold their breath until they turned blue? They didn't make it to the convention because people like me could say "Look you're a Democratic voter and we get that you didn't get your wish this time but we really need you to suck it up and vote for the black guy." IIRC someone went to the convention and actually found six self identified #PUMAs.
Here's a second thing: A lot of those Democratic Base voters were energized, and I am one, have hated the DLC/Third-Way idiocy that has led us away from being the party of Franklin D. Roosevelt into the party of I-don't-know-what corporate apologists and enablers. We have been voting Democratic Party because that was the best we could do, even though our issues, like pro-Union Fair pay etc were suborned to "winning elections". We haven't been happy with our own party. I'm not alone and this will come back to bite us later.
Here's a second thing part duh: Republicans are expressing serious dissatisfaction with their own party beyond the Tea Party. For 30 years they've been promised stupid stuff like repealing choice, and repealing "Obamacare" and bringing back the 1950's and the Republican Party hasn't delivered. They haven't been getting what they want in the same way Progressive Democrats haven't been getting what we want. Only now they're expressing it by supporting Donald Trump.
What worries me part 1: A lot of Bernie supporters aren't or haven't been Democrats. They have no loyalty to the Democratic Party. We had a hook into the #PUMAs. My horseback guess is that we don't for 80% of new/Independent/First time Bernie voters. I have no problem doing the "lesser of two evils" rap it's my job as 1 of 200-250k GOTV drones. It's my job.But that's my only hook.
What worries me part 1a: The Democratic Party isn't as great a brand in 2016 as it was in 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx
After you've #UniteBlue your 29% what's your plan to win?
What worries me part 2: The Independents are hard to read this year. If I read the really bad polls this year there are too many lean D voters who will vote for Trump because they're unhappy with both parties. Unhappy with the Establishment parties is a big deal this year.
What annoys me: Hillary lost to "Hope and Change". I knocked on doors for Kerry's "Let America be America again" (sound familiar? Kinda Trump-ian) and I don't even remember Gore's "I'm running from blow-jobs" slogan. For the record I'm in favor of blow-jobs. I'm gonna' be knocking on the same Nevada doors saying "Yeah I know you heard about "political revolution". I know that this year you were "Hoping for even more Change" but I've got something even better because this year #I'm With Her" and that's even more inspiring, right? Right?"
So I'm worried because I'll be knocking on doors again and Hillary's camp is having a hissy fit about making the structural changes that would make the Democratic Party more responsive to Democrats. They want to win the ideological divide between the DLC and the FDR sides of the Democratic party. And the Hillary camp want's to make it harder on me to #GOTV whenI'm on their side
grasswire
(50,130 posts)I accept your thoughtful post in good faith. I predict you are going to get spanked here. Don't let it chase you away.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Not sure what to make of this OP.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)the majority of independent voters are actually partisans who don't want to admit to being partisans.
they vote democratic (or republican) election after election after election
BobSmith4152
(75 posts)voters since January because most of them are still Independents /Decline to state
The Democratic Party brand isn't what it was even 8 years ago
BootinUp
(47,225 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Republican president is not the answer. It will be on Democrats to join together and elect a Democrat. Trust me. I was pulling for Hillary in 2008, I gladly voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. He has been a great president.
annavictorious
(934 posts)Are you a Democrat? I only ask because I'm active in my local party (all the time, not just during presidential primaries), and I'm not sure of what you mean by DLC versus FDR sides of the party. While Democrats run the spectrum from centrist to ultra-liberal, we are all the party of FDR.
If you're having a hard time articulating what Democrats stand for, then you probably shouldn't be canvassing yet. Hone your message through phone banking, and you might feel more comfortable and be more effective with face to face advocacy.
BobSmith4152
(75 posts)canvassing in 1974.
FDR was a Democratic President the DLC basically... here http://www.salon.com/2016/04/30/clintonism_screwed_the_democrats_how_bill_hillary_and_the_democratic_leadership_council_gutted_progressivism/
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)I hear you and you shouldn't be complacent. However, if you look at the exit polling Hilliary has a winning coalition. She has a higher AA % than PBO, she has hispanic vote in a really percentage, which by the way registration is way up there, because they are afraid Trump will deport their families. She also is winning women. Every time tRump opens his mouth he offends someone, especially women. I suspect she is even going to get some moderate repub women. There probably are some Sander supporters who wont vote for Hilliary, maybe even a higher % than the 2008 Pumas. Some of them who are so close minded that they believe HRC " stole" the nomination. You can't talk logically to them. Some may even be irrational like that supporter who threatned a superdelegate. But i suspect that the irrational contingent will go more for Jill Stein than tRump. Furthermore, I suspect there will be surrogates that will help her along with that party unity (like maybe an Oct surprise from PBO. ) Although, it may look like HRC supporters are not as "enthusiastic" as Bernie's supporters but they prefer to mobilize that enthusiasm into votes. There is a reason that she has millions more votes than Bernie. Finally, read Nate Silver i firmly believe in what he says. The repubs failure to include minorities will doom them. Just study those polls and GOTV.