slightly disappointed at Washington Post Poll- 2 pt swing for Romney 49-48

[kansasobama]

Hmmm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121101.html

Hope they are trying to make Romney win


State polls are leaning towards us though...

Well, we just have to keep working guys!! GOTV

[jezebel]

1. the sample in the poll is Dem +3. I think that is down a bit from the past few days.

[geek tragedy]

2. Noise. Obama was actually ahead 48.56 to 48.47 nt

[NewsCenter28]

10. Geek...

You pretty sure that this isn't movement towards Romney because of Staten Island then? That's the only factor I can think of that would push Romney ahead overnight. On the other hand, President Obama's approval remained at 50%; so, if it does have to do with Staten Island, you would think his approval would have gone down as well which it did not.

Sorry, I'm a total mess. lol.

[geek tragedy]

14. Staten Island? Maybe they got 1-2 poll respondents from

from there--otherwise it's being hyped by the Wingnutosphere exclusively.

[Lightsource777]

23. you should stop

step away from the Internet and breathe perhaps

[progressivebydesign]

25. are you joking? that's a RW talking point that was no doubt just faxed.

that's ridiculous... sorry that dog don't hunt here.

[S_E_Fudd]

3. And Again...

They do not publish their registered voter number. They screen out about 6% of voters who say they will probably vote, but are not certain to vote...

[kansasobama]

4. I am going to throw out MSM after the election

ABC is probably now trying to curry favor. Why they do have D -3?

I really want to see MSM all look downcast (except the Chris Matthews group)

[NewsCenter28]

5. I was feeling great....

But this poll has devastated me and almost made me suicidal. Maybe that's the point? I don't know....I wish I didn't have poll OCD manic-depression. Their headline doesn't help either: "Can Obama win?."

I swear if President Obama loses on Tuesday night, I have no clue what I'm going to do. My life will be over.

[LisaL]

8. I hope you are being sarcastic.

National polls mean nothing. It's now how elections are won.

[RBInMaine]

9. Either you are joking or need to get a serious grip. Just chill the heck out will you.

[NewsCenter28]

16. RB....

No, I can't tell you how much I need to see President Obama re-elected for a whole host of reasons. I won't chill out.

Hopefully, PPP has a good national tracker tonight at 11 or so and then I can relax.

[LisaL]

18. Again, national polls are useless.

I wouldn't spend any time worrying about them.

[Arugula Latte]

13. It's a national poll -- only the battleground state polls matter.

Romney will get a load of votes from Utah, Wyoming, Mississippi, places like that. Who cares.

But you get that, right?

[NewsCenter28]

20. Right I know all about 538/Princeton and the regression models

They're awesome. I'm just worried that bad national poll results might presage bad battleground poll results. No reason to think that they will but again, I will be beyond devastated if President Obama loses. I can't bear the possibility and I've never been one for positive thinking lol.

That said, the state polls looked AWESOME today. I thought we had it won until this poll came out.

[progressivebydesign]

26. I mean this with much true concern. Do you have a counselor or friend to talk to?

Hard to tell on this board if you're really that serious or being melodramatic. Commit suicide if he doesn't win? If that is how you feel, please call someone right away. We're concerned about you.

It's a National poll, btw, and means nothing. the State polls are the ones that matter anyway. So many things can affect a poll, like what day they call, did they use cell phones, did they use a 'likely voter" model that arbitrarily removes the people who actually ARE voting this year? Etc. Some polls poll too heavily in the South, where Mittsters has a double digit lead in some States. It's just one poll.

And god forbid Romney wins, which I doubt highly, it's not the end of the world. We survived that asshole Bush, we can survive Romeny... but we won't have to.

But seriously... I mean it. If you're really having some problems PLEASE call someone right away. okay?

[Lightsource777]

24. wow

Is there a hobby that can entertain you for the next 4 days other than reading polls? I think it would be healthier for you.

[mzmolly]

6. Obama is ahead 49/48 - I'm good with that.

[fugop]

11. Absolutely!

Considering all the factors and polls, this is great. Has Mitt led in ANY poll today?

[mzmolly]

7. Bizarre - the article reports Obama ahead, but the graph shows the opposite?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/01/wapo-abc-tracking-poll-presidential-contest-as-close-as-close-can-be/

In the latest release, 49 percent of likely voters across the country back Obama, 48 percent his Republican challenger. It’s an identical 49 to 48 percent looking across eight states identified as “tossups” by The Washington Post.

RCP is picking up the graph numbers.

[geek tragedy]

15. That's yesterday's #'s. nt

[mzmolly]

22. Dratz!

I thought someone pulled a fast one.

[ksoze]

17. That link and stroy is yesterday (Nov 1)

[mzmolly]

21. Ahh. Guess that makes a difference.

[2roos]

12. Hey Newscenter28 it will be OK

go to election.princeton.edu - a better method than Nate Silver and a stronger Obama winning prediction - you'll feel better.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

19. Fuck 'em

Obama will not be stopped. O-Mentum!

[Jennicut]

27. This tracking poll is basically showing normal statistical noise.

Look at the last few days. Always 49 /49 or 48 /49 or 49/ 48. Not worried much about it. Most national polls are pretty stable and bouncing around the margins of error. Tied or 1 point leads really just mean you need to look at the state polling and rely on GOTV.
Not even sure Rasmussen tied means much other then Scott Rasmussen is not cooking the books to get Romney ahead.