Updated North Carolina EV Stats: 2,511,435 voters, 56 percent female, 32% non-white

[VirginiaTarheel]

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[LisaL]

1. Those are good stats.

[VirginiaTarheel]

2. Dem: 47.6%; Rep: 31.8%: None/Other: 20.6%

[LonePirate]

3. Surely we can win 1 of every 4 white voters, right?

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. I am waiting to see county level data

Mecklenburg and Wake were still trailing 2008 numbers by few points as of yesterday. Based on our internal statistics Pres Obama was running about 59.5-40.5 in the early voting and if that can stay around this number by EOD, we will win NC by a 0.5-1.5pts. Which is between 20k-60k votes. It is possible that demographics shift will move the election even higher like 3 points but that has no empirical data. Generally R's tend to vote on election day and some counties will see dramatic movement on that day. In any case NC is very close and can go either way so no room for error.


GOTV, GOTV

[John2]

5. I

think Durham County is also running behind their 2008 numbers. Overall registration for Durham county also shows an increase for Democrats while Republicans have stayed the same. Durham County usually has a high turnout rate in Presidential elections and it is staunchly Democratic. I've talked to a few people and they claim they will wait until election day.

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. I think more accurate data by tomorrow will tell us more about NC situation.

But its going be very close...

Not like the outlier Mason Dixon 51-45 for Romney. That is like 700-800k votes in florida... simply impossible, i don't know how new papers like Miami herald will post a poll like this on main web page.

[VirginiaTarheel]

7. M-D has historically leaned very Repub in polling