2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSalon's Steve Kornacki: Ron Paul's takeover plot
Don't look now, but he's racking up delegates at under-the-radar contests -- and Republicans are officially spooked.http://www.salon.com/2012/05/03/the_ron_paul_convention_takeover_plot/
The RNC isnt just nervous about Nevada. In the past few weeks, as Romney cemented his hold on the nomination and the media turned its attention to the general election, Paul supporters have wreaked havoc at numerous district caucuses and state conventions, producing some startling results. For instance, 20 of Iowas 28 national convention delegates will likely be Paul supporters even though the Texan finished third in the states January caucuses with 21 percent of the vote. And 20 of the 24 delegates selected in district caucuses in Minnesota recently are Paul backers, even though he was trounced by Rick Santorum in the states February caucuses. Similar stories have emerged from Louisiana, Colorado and Massachusetts, with the list likely to grow.
This is possible because of the GOPs multi-tier delegate selection process. In many caucus states, the official results that most people saw this winter were from nonbinding straw polls conducted in conjunction with precinct-level caucuses. But when it comes to choosing national convention delegates, the real action is at district caucuses and state conventions. In the past, this distinction hasnt mattered much, but for the Paul forces who lack the numbers to win statewide primaries but have the devotion to pack any room, anywhere, at any time it has offered an inviting loophole. When turnout is small and no one is looking, the Paul folks can win, and thats whats been happening in a number of states.
To Paul die-hards, this will all culminate in a surprise for the ages in Tampa, with the political world suddenly realizing that Romney actually doesnt have the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, thereby allowing Paul to extract major concessions or even steal the nomination for himself.
This isnt going to happen, but the actual number of delegates that Paul will control is a real mystery at this point, and the final number could be a lot bigger than anyone has expected. Besides the pledged delegates hes won so far and the extras hes collecting through caucuses and state conventions, Paul will also have some supporters disguised as Romney delegates. To understand how this works, just consider his campaigns mischief in Massachusetts, where Romney won 72 percent of the primary vote and with it, a monopoly on the states pledged convention delegates. But to determine who would fill those pledged delegate slots, the state GOP held caucuses recently, and the Paul crowd came out in force, gobbling up 16 of the 19 available positions. In how many other states will this happen, or has it already happened?
TheWraith
(24,331 posts)southernyankeebelle
(11,304 posts)Mitts is worried.
Emillereid
(3,332 posts)LiberalFighter
(51,226 posts)It should be fun.
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)Why hasn't Paul ever had the stones to just break off from the party and just join the libertarians or run as an independent?? (we all know the answer to that, but still...)
And with the "Paul's people are setting up the stage for him to swipe the nomination"-talking point gaining steam, do any of these pundits think the party bosses would allow him to be nominee and upstage their guy, no matter how many delegates he has? Even if Paul ended up with 90+ percent of all delegates, the party bosses would just pull some 11th hour change of the nominating rules...
grantcart
(53,061 posts)in 2016 but be very strong in 2020.
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)I remember that bit of hype leading up to the countdown of Paul's "endorsement"...I'm sure the Libertarian Party loved his generic, noncommittal "just-vote-for-some-random-third-party" speech...
Paul is batshit insane, but to his credit he is smart, clever, manipulative and conniving to the level of his bigger-name peers. I just shake my head that so many people where I live still buy into his myth...
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Party guy.
independentpiney
(1,510 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Why have the Ron Paul people been able to do this?
Because Romney used pop up campaigns rather than establishing state by state Romney organizations
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romneys-swat-team-closes-out-the-primaries
But the decision to run what are effectively pop-up campaigns in the primary states has the downside that when Williams, Donlin, and their team depart, they leave little behind. Romney never built the sort of large volunteer operation Obamas 2008 primary race assembled in important swing states like Florida and Ohio, and as the general election approaches, hes likely to be starting from scratch. Some local Obama offices, by contrast, have remained open continuously for over four years. And Obamas well-funded effort is already building for November. When Romneys staff moved out of its office in Iowa after a virtual tie in the caucuses in January, the Obama campaign opened an office in Romneys vacant headquarters.
So Romney's people leave the state and Ron Paul's work the system and are able to get the delegates.
After the primary is all finished Romney will not have state organizations and Obama will have organizations that have been working for 5 years.
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)nor Paul can secure the nomination on the first ballot. The battle between unctuous used-car salesman (Romney) and crazy out-of-the-attic uncle (Paul) would just be about the best summer entertainment ever (only second to the Watergate summer that culminated in Nixon's resignation).