2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/08/bernie_sanders_surges_ahead_of_hillary_clinton_in_nh_44_37I guess surge is not over yet!
840high
(17,196 posts)HappyPlace
(568 posts)pa28
(6,145 posts)Response to pa28 (Reply #3)
Qutzupalotl This message was self-deleted by its author.
CharlotteVale
(2,717 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)Or several of the old ones will get recycled all at once.
Incoming!!!
Qutzupalotl
(14,340 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)And SEVEN months to go. Oh my!
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Wait for "polls don't matter" (unless they show Hillary ahead).
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Though "posting a poll from a late primary state" is a close second.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)The polling outfit rates a C- from 538 so I won't buy this new "Bernie surge" until a few more polls confirm it.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)before people in media start admitting that this is going to be a competitive primary. I don't know what kind of numbers they're waiting for. Besides, if everyone thinks that their candidate is the best, then a competitive primary should not be frightening to anyone.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Even if he wins IA and NH , not enough -too white
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but interestingly enough, back when i was still watching hardball before i couldn't take matthews' smarmy dismissal of bernie, i remember howard fineman saying that if bernie wins both iowa and nh hillary could have a very tough time coming back. he even suggested that it could be game over. i almost fainted, but those two wins with his momentum would be very good.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)She knew it was game over if she lost......momentum is everything
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but he tends to be spot on a lot of the time.
I actually have hope..
John Poet
(2,510 posts)she should just get out of the race, right?
appalachiablue
(41,199 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)As such, pundits are all puzzled.
They look at Bernie's crowds and can't wrap their heads around the idea that there are enough Liberals out there to fill a meeting room in the back room of a Denny's much less a stadium.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)is that many of his supporters don't necessarily see it as liberalism. they see it as fairness. he is getting all kinds of support, even from republicans.
sooner or later, the 2x4 of reality will catch up to them..
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)If she's not running but some old white guy talking about expanding Social Security is out there then even if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat the urgency to vote against Hillary won't be burning in their "brain" so Republican turnout will suffer.
Especially if they run Jeb.
(Or is it, "Jeb!"?)
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)i looked on fr yesterday and they hate jebbie. some even said they would vote third party trump
it is an anti establishment election for sure
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)that would be nice...
arcane1
(38,613 posts)The media doesn't want this, but we don't need them. How many TV stations advertised these rallies?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)social media is free, and that is what is working.
love the millenials and the others who are unplugged to teevee.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I get everything from the net or papers or Books...yeah!
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)seems that conventional tv is still popular among some older folks, but i bet even some of them are getting sick of it all.
artislife
(9,497 posts)It supplements the income. Granted I live in the Puget Sound so we have a lot of tech people and tech friendly people. Most of my homes are not connected to cable. They have Amazon Prime, Netflix, Hulu, HBO go and apple tv. Even when there is cable, I rarely watch it.
These are Boomers, Xers and Millinials. The over 65 crowd still watches cable...so I get to see Outlander and Orphan Black. Yippee!
But so many have cut the cord.
djean111
(14,255 posts)I don't think her campaign really knows how social media works. They don't know (or arrogantly don't care) that X-ers and Millennials cannot only see behind the curtain, they make it a point to look behind the curtain. And, yeah, they don't watch expensive TV ads.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)which is exactly the ones used by HRH's most ardent supporters. Wall Street and Yellow Dog Democrats are her only supporters and it looks like some of the Yellow Dogs might be feelin' the Bern. And this is five months out. No wonder the Clinton campaign is starting to write off New Hampshire. They can still manipulate Iowa but Iowa is nothing but a horse race and media show and, I think too many people forget (or didn't know in the first place), the Iowa caucuses are non-binding.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)appalachiablue
(41,199 posts)SOSHIALIST drama again, avec spittle. Can't wait. I copped your S. word, hope that's ok.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)everybody borrows from everyone else. Never been an issue.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)It's so what we need right now.
On edit, that's not true. Its not just about the platform, but the consistent record to back it up.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)Obama has them, Hillary has one. Bernie needs a dark sunglasses picture. I would make that my avatar.
appalachiablue
(41,199 posts)In following him for several years these qualities are quite clear, not to mention beaucoup brains, compassion, integrity, endurance and stamina. The man also has far more patience than many, esp. in his field.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)....though my super prediction is that there are going to be some states that finish Sanders, Omalley, Clinton and/or Omalley, Sanders Clinton. Assuming Joe doesn't get in.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)I agree with you.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Go Bernie!
Zorra
(27,670 posts)tritsofme
(17,435 posts)Even under ideal conditions.
Unless you start seeing any further polls confirming, this is the most likely explanation.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)Somebody pay the wo/man!!
Zorra
(27,670 posts)Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)You seer of seers!
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)That's a lot of time for more and more outliers...
artislife
(9,497 posts)Yummy. You can have it with milk, or cocoa or even a coke. It's yours!
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)tritsofme
(17,435 posts)I know that is a controversial topic.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)We even made snickerdoodles.
There is real, unreal, and the third way, the corporate manufactured illusion of real.
You want real? We can help!
tritsofme
(17,435 posts)Fairgo
(1,571 posts)No, the SEM implies a 1 in 20 chance that the outcome is due something other than whatever it was your instrument was measuring. So, no, outlier is actually one if the less likely reasons for the outcome.
tritsofme
(17,435 posts)That this poll produced results inconsistent with other publicly available information?
Polls are typically structured to have a 95% CI, 5% of the time it can be expected that the results will fall outside of the MoE.
jalan48
(13,909 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Can't find anything in the methodology to dismiss the poll, so we will see if the next round of NH polling shows the same move.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)Thats a pretty big leap too...with plenty of time to keep spreading the word, man I'm excited. But I'm sure its going to be a pretty bumpy ride, the powers that be are going to fight tooth and nail.
JI7
(89,287 posts)mmonk
(52,589 posts)JI7
(89,287 posts)and i mean do house to house and small local events to start off.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)But... maybe that right wing rag thinks they're helping...
Hmmmm
Zorra
(27,670 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Just can't stand the Herald.
rocktivity
(44,585 posts)he shares a border with. It's his Iowa numbers that he has to improve by February.
rocktivity
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)...should make for an interesting weekend when I go up there the weekend before...
Robbins
(5,066 posts)NH is right next to vermont and NH is mostly white.
I have always maintained if bernie wins Iowa and NH her lead collopses like house of cards.we saw something similar in 2008 after Obama won Iowa.
this race is tougher for clintons due to Bernie not being negative and he has consent record.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)But wow... there is some ugliness in this thread, and lots of gloating.
It's not pretty.
where's the ugliness?
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)It's not hard to miss.
Puglover
(16,380 posts)Always Johnny on the Spot with your support for Senator Sanders.
You're consistent if nothing else.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)without tearing others down its realatively easy to be consistent, and still have people respect you.
It's one of those things where if you give respect, you get respect.
okey dokey.
When you dig up any horrid posts I have made about Hillary Clinton please get back to me.
Have a nice day.
TIA.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)I don't have to, in your first response to me just now I was not treated with respect. It's right there, and anyone who gets it will see it clear as day.
Puglover
(16,380 posts)On that we fully agree.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)And all that happens is I get beat up by other supporters? You think that's a good thing?
Thank god DU isn't the real world, and thank god you guys aren't actually on the ground in NH.
Puglover
(16,380 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)What HRC had going for her was her 'inevitability' but if she shows vulnerability and loses some primaries and caucuses to Bernie--I think the VP and his people will take it as a sign of weakness and will get in the race. I think it is a possibility that nobody will have enough delegates when the convention meets and we might have an open convention where almost anything could happen.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Biden could be on standby for the 'establishment's' Plan B. Hillary's email scandal just took a turn for the worse, and Biden might be the DNC's backup. However, the longer they wait, the stronger Sanders gets. The Corporatists are probably getting pretty nervous. Good. I hope they become pants-shitting urine-misting frightened.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)lame54
(35,345 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)....and it's sponsored by a newpaper owned by a former executive of News Corp.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Can you surge AND plateau at the same time?