CNN/ORC released this morning: Sanders gaining ground on Clinton

[cali]

<snip>

Clinton’s lead dropped 9 points since last month, according to a CNN/ORC survey released Wednesday.
CNN found she now leads Sanders, 47 percent to 29 percent, among Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent voters.

Clinton remains the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, it added, despite Sanders picking up 10 points since July.

Sanders’s favorability spiked in the new poll, with 38 percent of Democrats saying they are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting give him, compared to 50 percent for Clinton.

<snip>


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/251427-sanders-gaining-ground-on-clinton

[Metric System]

1. Should Biden decide not to make a run for the presidency, his supporters would largely flock to

Clinton rather than Sanders, boosting her numbers. With Biden's backers re-allocated to their second choice, Clinton holds 56%, Sanders 33%. "

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/19/politics/2016-poll-hillary-clinton-joe-biden-bernie-sanders/index.html

[Fred Sanders]

41. The Obama-Clinton- Biden tirade in the Democratic Party will be dominate, as it should be after

Presidenting While Obama for 8 years.

Continuing to an historic third consequetive third term hold by the Democratic Party, or any Party of The Executive Branch, for potentially 16 straight years, is a huge part of the equation for historic liberal change in America- and is not to be trifled with because it has been hard earned and well deserved.

Clinton is a continuation of the evolution of liberalism in America, and isn't it social liberalism the Democratic Party represents, not classic socialism? The Canadian NDP is the best example I can give as comparison, and they just won Alberta in a shocker upset over 50 straight years of conservatism.

You say you want a revolution? But you already have it! You are standing in the middle of the time line as it is happening, an evolutionary and time time consuming one, granted, but is that not clear enough?

So what choice do the neo-fascists mirrored by the like of Trump and Fascist Company and their billionaire founders do, as they are witness to this puzzling leftist populist rise in the polling, but go deep in the playbook for Plan D, for "desperation", and give it one last old Liberty College Hail Maria Law desperate deep field toss of the xenophobia- overinflated ball!

"Trump, go deep and make yourself look big....it is our only hope!"

[Warren Stupidity]

2. we still have a long way to go.

The good news is the momentum is in favor of Sanders, the bad news is that Clinton has a huge lead and is well organized.

[cali]

3. absolutely. you know I think she pretty much has it in the bag but

what jumps out at me are the continuing signs that she is not a strong general election candidate. The same poll has her ahead of trump by only 6 points and further erosion of her lead over other repubs. Also erosion of her favorabilities

[Metric System]

4. Her numbers against Republicans in this poll are great. Most pols would kill for these numbers:

Hillary vs. Jeb: 53%-41% all, (52%-43% RV)

Hillary vs. The Donald: 52%-43% all, (51%-45% RV)

Hillary vs. Walker: 52%-44% all, (52%-46% RV)

Hillary vs. Fiorina: 55%-40% all, (53%-43% RV)

[cali]

7. she has lost a lot of ground in this poll compared to the same poll of a month ago

And beating trump by all of six points?

[John Poet]

52. AND it appears that Fox News poll wasn't such an outlier AT ALL,

as opposed to what the Hillary DU-echo machine was telling us.

Bernie was only 1 point higher in that one.

[Agschmid]

5. Did they poll Bernie vs. R's?

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

12. How any sane person could pick any GOPig over

any Dem makes me very sad.

There's a lot of indolent Americans out there that are fucking mashugana.

[MaggieD]

42. She doesn't have it in the bag

She has the extreme left, the right wing smear machine and the corporate media all attacking her.

It's the same thing they did to Gore. And the result is likely to be the same as well. Then the right wing and the media will congratulate themselves and the extreme left will proceed to disavow any responsibility as the USSC gets further stacked with cons.

It's déjà vu all over again.

[starroute]

45. What do you mean by "the extreme left"?

Would those be the people who used to be described as "left of center" before the national discourse got shoved to far to the right?

[MaggieD]

46. No - it would be liberals that clamor

Independents like Nader and Bernie.

[cali]

49. of she is the nominee and loses, the blame is most entirely here. she's

a lousy campaigner and perhaps she just isn't likeable enough.

[MaggieD]

50. Nah

Not when folks like those here have jumped on the right wing smear machine bandwagon. You're trying to take her down, so why disavow what you deliberately did if it ends up working? That makes no sense.

[HereSince1628]

6. If you want a visual aid...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

[cyberswede]

18. Ok, that interactive graph is hella cool.

Thanks for posting!

ETA screenshot:

[ram2008]

21. But... but... the surge is over!!

Kos and Nate said so!!

[FloridaBlues]

27. The Bernie surge still can't get over the 30-33% and doubt he will

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

30. At the rate he's going, he'll pass your 30-33% before September.

And no doubt you'll continue to doubt and simply name a new number he "can't get over".

[ram2008]

32. If Biden doesn't run he's already at 33% in this poll

You're saying there won't be any movement from now on?

[HereSince1628]

53. But how well he polls may not only be people he is directly drawing in

It's pretty clear looking at all the candidates that Clinton has lost some support and it went to Sanders.

The reignition of Clinton's email problems may be costing her polling support, and Sanders is looking like the next most likely challenger.

Nobody else appears to have collected any of the lost 9 points other than Sanders.

That dynamic could mess with projections that misjudged how significant the soft part of Clinton's support was.

Clinton's breaking under the 50% psychological barrier, where it's no longer possible to say 'most' democrats polled prefer her. Now she's only leading polling among democrats. While it's still a sizable lead it's changed character.

[azmom]

26. Why do they include Biden?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

31. So at the start of the month, she was up 36 points, and now only 18. ouch! heh. nt

[stevenleser]

39. No, you cannot cherry pick different polling organizations and do that. You have to compare polls

from the same polling organization.

That will yield incorrect conclusions.

[onehandle]

8. CNN/ORC measures Registered Voters, not Likely Voters.

So you might as well be asking the first 50 people you see in a mall.

CNN loves polls that drive headlines, not facts.

[virtualobserver]

9. they ALL have been RV, except for Fox , and you don't like that one either

all of the polls cited by Hillary supporters have been RV
read em', and of course... weep

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

What this shows is that Fox was no outlier.

[jeff47]

17. You can't make a reasonable "likely voter" screen this far from the election.

For example, 538's aggregate downplays likely voter polls until closer to the election.

[Robbins]

10. Remember

this backs up the fox poll which had hillary's lead down to 19 points.Here it is 18 points.

Bernie is going up and she is going down.and remember this is national poll.

[CharlotteVale]

11. K&R

[Romulox]

13. Hillary's campaign has been one of the worst I've witnessed. She is squandering her lead. nt

[MoveIt]

14. How do the Biden supporters break down when he's not an option?

You know, since he's not running and stuff....
Has there been any recent polling that shows how they break down support for their "2nd" choice of re: Hillary/Sanders/O'Malley ?

[Godhumor]

15. They did in this poll. His supporters moved to Clinton

Her share goes up to 56% while Sanders increased by 3%.

[MoveIt]

16. 11% out of Biden's 14% go to Clinton

Thanks I skimmed through and missed it the first time.

That's about what I expected, and matches the overall breakdown of dems nationally. Onward and upward

[K lib]

19. I dont see that where did you find that info?

Edit: I see the information now

[wilsonbooks]

20. Not exactly.

From the Article:

It found that should he decide not to run, most of his supports would back Clinton over Sanders in the next election cycle. Clinton earns 56 percent of Biden’s potential supports should he pass on a White House run, CNN/ORC said.

Sanders, it added, nabs 33 percent in that scenario, while support for the other Democratic Oval Office bids remains unchanged.

[Godhumor]

24. Sorry, Sanders gets an additional 4% not 3%

Off by a percent.

[wilsonbooks]

43. Wrong again

Sanders, it added, nabs 33 percent in that scenario

33 % is not 3% or 4%, but I think you knew that.

[Godhumor]

44. No, he goes from 29% to 33%. That is 4 percentage points.

Which would be what I mentioned in my other post.

[LannyDeVaney]

22. Some folks idea of a "close" election had gotten really skewed.

Any candidate, anywhere, anytime, would kill for the numbers Mrs. Clinton has.

She is very, very close to a lock in both the primary and general election from what I'm seeing.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

33. If the election were today, sure.

But her numbers have just kept falling, while Bernie's just keep rising. The real question is what will each of their numbers be by the time voting rolls around.

[cali]

48. in in 3 1/2 months he's gone from being 60 points behind to 17.

If you can't see what a big jump that is, you're the one whose vision is skewed

[99th_Monkey]

23. And that doesn't even count Independents & cross-over GOP voters

who would NEVER vote for Hillary ... and who aren't counted
in these polls of "likely Democratic voters"

[K lib]

25. In the poll

It does include independents that lean democrat, but I agree it probably does not have the full extent of the effect.

[azmom]

28. Or new voters that have been inspired by Bernie

[DanTex]

29. This confirms the earlier FOX poll. It's now about a 20 point race.

And there still hasn't even been a single debate. At this point, Bernie has definitely exceeded expectations. There are still plenty of reasons to think Hillary is a big favorite, but at some point, if the gap closes any more (or maybe even now), she's going to have to make some tactical changes in her campaign strategy, which so far has been to lay low and do fundraisers.

But if she decides to go after Bernie in the primary, that in turn could hurt her in the GE with the base. And if she tries to pivot further left, that could hurt her with moderates in the GE. She's in a tricky spot.

[GitRDun]

34. Bernie's at a tipping point too

Getting from 30% to 50% means having a well built coalition.

He can get there if he can effectively appeal to lots of groups.

Both he and Hillary need to make a move IMO.

[Playinghardball]

35. Hillary is gettin' Obama’ed by an old white dude...(eom)

[totodeinhere]

36. What's more Trump is only six points behind HRC nationally

according to that poll. That's really scary.

[Adrahil]

37. It's clear that there is no plateau....

If Biden bows out, as expected, that will likely help HRC, but Bernie may be stronger than I expected.

[MaggieD]

38. Biden's 14% will go to her

I'm sure that's why they included a guy not running in the poll. The corporate media hates her because she won't kiss their asses.

[left-of-center2012]

40. Sanders has peaked?

There was a recent post on DU saying Sanders had peaked and begun to 'wane'.
I don't see it now, but am guessing it was in a pro-HC post.

I expect Bernie to keep on truckin' while Hillary gets bogged down in mud. JMHO

[ibegurpard]

51. No he plateaued

Onwards to the peak!

[Uncle Joe]

47. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, cali.