2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's the Ticket: Biden and Warren
Posted: 08/17/2015
Many thoughtful progressives in the Democratic Party, myself included, are suffering from a feeling of helplessness these days. We believe the Party is headed for defeat under the banner of Hillary, whose poll numbers are already not looking good. We fear disaster but have not seen a better alternative.
While the Democrats should have something of a lock on the Presidency, given the nation's demographics, a campaign by Hillary will not be anything like a normal campaign. Instead of a campaign on issues and party credibility, it will be a campaign about Hillary. Hillary might very well lose that campaign. There is probably little she can do to improve her poll numbers because voters views about her were set a long time ago. Voters may turn to Hillary if the Republican candidate is a conservative extremist, but they are unlikely to change their views of her on the basis of some new campaign proposal. Her campaign will always be on the defensive, as we have seen in the latest controversy over the e-mail server. We live in fear of the next revelation about her or Bill, suspecting that there is plenty out there to reveal. Are we going to have to listen to her defending the flow of foreign money to the Foundation or the huge speaking fees coming from interested corporations? No one wants a campaign organized around such issues, but this is what a Hillary campaign will look like.
In response to these fears, many progressives are turning to Bernie Sanders--a surprise even to himself. Sanders shows the deep desire for reform present in the Democratic base. But no one can seriously believe that Sanders can win the national election. Well to the left of the mainstream of the party, he campaigned as an independent and described himself as a democratic socialist. Socialists have not been able to hold on to office in Scandinavia in recent years. The socialist recovery is not going to start in a country that still idolizes Ronald Reagan. Sanders is a great symbol, not a credible alternative.
O'Malley cannot break out even if Hillary falters because he carries too much of the weight of Baltimore. Webb is invisible. No wonder many progressives believe that the Democrats are throwing away the presidency, which would mean a Republican takeover of all of the branches of the national government and most of the states. Quite an achievement for a minority party.
This is the political situation that compels Joe Biden to run. He may not be a great candidate -- too old and too loquacious -- but he can win. Most important, he is well liked and even loved by many. His family is a source of support, while Hillary's is only a source of potential problems. He is a traditional Democrat, meaning that he represents the center left, which is where the votes in the swing states are. He speaks to the working class in a way that neither Hillary nor Sanders can match. Tactically, he can run on the promise of finishing the work of the Obama/Biden administration. There remains much to be done to secure universal health care, the economic recovery, reform of the criminal law and policing, as well as carbon reduction. Such a campaign positions him to profit greatly from Obama's support, which will be crucial for motivating minority groups upon which a Democratic victory must depend.
more...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-w-kahn/heres-the-ticket-biden-an_b_7999724.html
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)He certainly has been a lot better on other issues than other corporate democrats have been, but he's shown a big weakness there to be bought when the power and money was there. And I would rather Elizabeth Warren stay in the senate than be a VP to him.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)But what will they do?
--imm
monmouth4
(9,711 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)I think it could bring down HRC votes enough to let Bernie win easily. Not sure how many Warren supporters would leave the Bernie camp to vote for VP. Could make it interesting.
RJMacReady
(14 posts)PTTP, I love Bernie, and agree with practically every position he has. However, we need to win this POTUS election, and hopefully one or both houses of Congress. In 2015, a socialist will NEVER get elected. We have to face facts- as we should have when Obama was only a first term Senator. He was not ready, when this country, after 8 years of an illegal Presidency of that strutting little creep W, was primed for radical change. But, we got a centrist, corporate friendly Obama. My ideal ticket would be Jay Inslee and Liz Warren. Inslee reminds me of an older JFK. Warren is too green to run for POTUS, but could be sold as a VP contender. I say lets win, if we can't draft Inslee, go with Biden/Durbin, or Biden/Warren. I think Biden would have kicked some ass when Obama chose compromise with these Tea Party a-holes. Biden's Catholicicsm has never interfered with his support of the pro choice movement. Hillary is damaged goods, the Ailes radio/TV empire will hammer her mercilessly until your average uninformed Joe Voter is convinced she is as big a sleaze as her hubby. This country can surely get POTUS candidates from more than two blood lines. No more Bushes, no more Clintons, please. Bernie can't win, that is just the sad fact of it.
Response to RJMacReady (Reply #10)
PowerToThePeople This message was self-deleted by its author.
TheFarS1de
(1,017 posts)Everyone else though has a shot . Crystal clear .
djean111
(14,255 posts)This whole Biden thing is starting to look like a way to try and peel off Bernie's supporters by dangling Warren as VP.
Personally - nope. Warren would be wasted as VP.
Or maybe it is National Float a Balloon Day.
Pop.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)Why would Warren want to leave her position of power in the Senate to be a VP for Biden? If Warren wanted to stick her toes into the fray she would run herself....she's no one's second fiddle.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)She would run as a candidate herself and not second fiddle to Joe Biden. Is there some reason folks out there think she's not good enough to be at the top of the ticket?
All this is silly anyway. Biden is not going to run and Warren is not going to be his VP.....it's just more speculation by the 'Anyone but Hillary' club.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Maybe Webb is even lower on my list, but not by much.
Biden's history as an unrepentant booster of the drug war needs to be addressed. Including but not limited to the fucking RAVE act.
You want to trust a major architect of the drug war with criminal justice reform or dealing sanely with states that have legalized marijuana?
No thanks.
RJMacReady
(14 posts)Give Biden the POTUS slot, and at least 1 house of Congress, and then we can get some sensible sentencing laws. The US has 5% of the world's population, but 25% if its inmates. That has to change, but maybe worrying about access to legal weed should not be the top issue for deciding on who to support from the Dem ranks. Bernie can't win, he just can't. Not in 2015 America, that 15 years before made it close enough for W to steal the election, and sat back and did nothing as the SCOTUS performed a coup de'tat and installed Bush as POTUS. Four years later we sat back and did nothing as Bush stole Ohio. The Dem progressive wing has to get tougher and more ruthless, and more realistic. Bernie can't win, Hillary is damaged goods. We need to face facts or we're looking at another Bush victory, or if this country is even in worse shape than I thought, President Trump. We would never recover from that. He is as twisted as W, but more crafty and has at least a functioning brain.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Leaving aside Hillary for the moment, that beltway conventional widsom about Sanders is bullshit. I've said before, voting in the primary for who supposedly "can win" is a fool's errand. In 2004, Kerry's war record and support for the IWR were supposed to be strengths, which were turned into weaknesses- and on Iraq, I firmly believe we would have done better had we run someone, like Dean, who was capable of articulating a clear moral alternative.
In 2008 the same conventional wisdom poobahs told us it would be insane to nominate an African American one term Senator with a last name that rhymes with "Osama" (and a middle name "Hussein", to boot).. PURE CRAZINESS!
I realize that, say, certain demographics of boomers may be endlessly traumatized by 1972, but it's time to move on.
And speaking of demographics, I'm gonna go out on a limb and speculate that you're on the East Coast- at least, east of the Mississippi. Well, news flash- "worrying about access to legal weed" is no longer a joke issue, nor something the candidates can ignore and blow off. 4 states have legalized, already, and more are likely to in 2016 and beyond. If you haven't heard of this random, podunk state called California, with 34 million people, it's clear you're familiar with Ohio- like already legal Colorado, a swing state.
BOTH those states poll in favor of legalization, and are likely to pass it in the near future- if Ohio doesn't pass a badly crafted legalization initiative this time around, it won't be because of lack of support for the general idea- and it will likely happen at some point in the near future.
The takeaway here is, despite being told by their East Coast beltway betters that they weren't "allowed to" (or that it was a joke, a non-important issue) several states have fully legalized recreational pot, and almost half the states in the country have legalized medical marijuana. Despite being told by people like Joe Biden, that they weren't supposed to.
And I'm sorry, but crafting a draconian, shitty piece of legislation that arbitrarily defines ANY promoter who puts on a rock and roll show where someone in the audience, say, smokes a joint (like that never happens, huh?) as a felon who gets a 20 year mandatory minimum sentence, displays a staggeringly bad level of judgment.
Biden? No fucking thanks.
brooklynite
(94,942 posts)SamKnause
(13,114 posts)Warren has repeatedly said she is not running.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)CharlotteVale
(2,717 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)STOP STEALING OUR SENATORS. IT KEEPS GIVING THAT HUMAN ANUS SCOTT BROWN A CHANCE TO SLINK OUT OF HIDING AND TRY TO REPRESENT US.
Love,
Massachusetts
Response to Purveyor (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
cali
(114,904 posts)Bernie has poured his heart and soul into this. Had Warren run, he would have deferred to her. He's earned my support.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)" But no one can seriously believe that Sanders can win the national election. Well to the left of the mainstream of the party, he campaigned as an independent and described himself as a democratic socialist. Socialists have not been able to hold on to office in Scandinavia in recent years. The socialist recovery is not going to start in a country that still idolizes Ronald Reagan. Sanders is a great symbol, not a credible alternative."
I seriously believe Sanders can win a national election. He is not 'well to the left of mainstream of the party', He represents the mainstream of the party. It's where IMO the majority of people in the U.S. want to take this country. Enough of this bullshit that he's so far left. And this crap about Scandinavia. Scandinavia happens to encompass several countries and I might also add that many European countries are socialist in nature as well and regardless of which party is in power, they are still providing free education, health care, paid mandatory vacation, child care, a woman's right to choose, etc. These so-called socialist ideas are not relegated to just ''Scandinavian" countries. Democratic Socialism is really where we need to go, with highly regulated capitalism. And as far as ''idolizing Ronald Reagan'', I don't think so much. He's gone, and we're left with the damage he left us for the past 30 years. And let's not forget who was running the show during his administration. No idolizing here, unless you're completely ignorant and I know much of the country is just that. Sanders has been met with huge turn outs all over the country, I would say he's much more than just a symbol. Given the power as President he's got the balls to stand up to the Corporate and Military entities that have drained this country down for the past 30 years.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)wilsonbooks
(972 posts)if she were to agree to run with Biden. We need real change, not more warmed over DLC bs.
Bernie all the way!!!!
djean111
(14,255 posts)A Biden/Warren ticket, looks to me, is meant to cynically siphon off Bernie supporters.
I think Warren would be wasted as the VP.
And I don't think Biden would be a whole lot different than Centrist Hillary.
Nope. I will stick with Bernie.
840high
(17,196 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)Warren as VP - a very cynical waste of her time and energy.
I can see where Biden would siphon Hillary votes, for sure.
But if the intent is to snag, for example, Bernie's female supporters - IMO Bernie's female supporters (like myself) do not fall into that "women will vote for a woman" thing.
And my 20 YO grandson is quite excited about voting for Bernie. He cautioned me that the younger folks, who really had not been interested in politics before, were caught up in what Bernie is SAYING. And - they believe him. They think of the other candidates as Same Old Stuff, why bother. For better or for worse, that is how they feel. They are not going to bother for Hillary or Biden, and they know perfectly well that the VP job does not mean very much. I think the DNC thinks they have a grip on Dem voters, and that ALL the Bernie supporters will do as they are told, if Bernie does not win the nomination.
No. And they are not ant-Hillary, they are anti same old stuff. When you push Biden or Hillary as continuing Obama's legacy, IMO you are making a mistake, And neither one can say they are the new hope and change and do new things candidate, really. Plus, whether it was a recalcitrant Congress, or whether it was seeing a Reagan Republican (self-professed!) in office, they don't really see continuing Obama's "legacy" as a plus.
All the "I love Bernie, BUT" and "I am a Progressive, BUT" arguments just will not cut it.
840high
(17,196 posts)old grandson can hardly wait to vote for Sanders.
djean111
(14,255 posts)He says he and his friends see everyone but Bernie as representing corporations, and they believe it is letting corporations rule that is ruining the country. Yes, some form of corporations are essential, but now corporations seems to run and corrupt the government. They will not vote for more of that.
Oh, and he said the prevailing opinion about a VP - a VP is sort of like Queen Elizabeth. A nice title, but basically waiting around for a tie in the Senate or to be handy if something happens to the President. Not a very good use of Warren, and not a compelling reason to vote for Biden.
840high
(17,196 posts)slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)for Clinton or Biden, not to mention the 'other party.'
The younger generation is not as married to an "D" or and "R" as some older folks, they are more concerned about changing the status quo and the future.
Good for them ... and us
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)The mainstream Democratic Party cannot object to either of them. Republicans have only the :liberal" label to attach to them, and that amounts to nothing. Warren has a reputation as "very liberal," but that might be a good thing this time around. Let's see if they announce.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)MisterP
(23,730 posts)by SHOWING non-lefties what discarding anything left of Franco has done to this country: not only would a Biden substitution clearly look like they're trying to block a movement bigger than the ever-shrinking party and not only would it be replacing Sanders TWICE (giving Warren the VP slot), but it wouldn't really be able to run the campaign Sanders would--it'd be neither reformist nor revolutionary, and we'd severely doubt Warren's pull to get the economic stuff done
it would be a bacon-saving move, to prove the hierarchy's ability to pick and choose and its power to coopt any challenges, and be seen as such; Sanders is running because we had a "Biden" before, and that was Biden's boss 2009-16! Obama doubled down on machine politics, saving the GOP's chestnuts, veal-penning anyone who wanted results, polishing his half-loaves, and frittering away his movement by turning them into OFA phone-bankers and gofers
Sanders doesn't want to keep the game going, while Biden and Warren would by accepting such a deal
(plus Biden voted for Iraq, for all the crowing that "Jeb forgot his brother created ISIS! stupid!"
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)The article is baloney
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I like both of them.
But Biden is too tied into corporate America and the status quo.
And he and Warren would be too dissonant for my tastes. Warren would just be there to guive "street cred" to placate "the left."
And the author lost me at his dismissal of Sanders out of hand. He is another full of shit narrow minded asshole who is determined to keep the perception of the "mainstreaam" of the Democraticc Partty off there in the right hand side of the fence with the GOP an Big Money.