Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumBernie won last night, and it's a huge upset... but what does it mean?
It means that the math that every poll that was forecasting Hillary to win is now suspect. How so?
Well, 538 projected at least an 18 point win for Hillary with an expected 99% assuredness. If you know nothing about 538, you should know they pick the best of the polls out there and combine their data to get their own results... you can think of it as a meta-poll.
This means that the best pollsters out there were off in their educated-guesses by at about 20% average. That's an enormous margin to be wrong by in the world of pollsters. So, all future polling forecasting any kind of win for Hillary has an immediate shadow of doubt hovering over it.
It's also worth noting that Hillary has not done well in the majority of democratic voting states. Sure, she's locked up many of the red-states... but she's largely being rebuffed in the blue states... Michigan helped to prove that.
What does it mean for future state races? Well, Bernie still has a lot of delegates he must win, but it means there's certainly more hope of that happening than there was before!
Go Bernie!!!
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Work harder for the next one, it will be harder to win.
And then do it again....
daleanime
(17,796 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Bernie's got to step up the ground game, because he needs an AVERAGE win of like 54% going forward, and there are still southern states out there that are going to suck. Which means he's going to need to stack up at least a few 60-65% wins in states with a LOT of delegates. I don't want to have to pin my hopes on a massive win in the very last state.