Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37

[cal04]

N.H. Democrats lukewarm to her tough image
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/08/bernie_sanders_surges_ahead_of_hillary_clinton_in_nh_44_37

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has rocketed past longtime front-runner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, a stunning turn in a race once considered a lock for the former secretary of state, a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll shows.

Sanders leads Clinton 44-37 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, the first time the heavily favored Clinton has trailed in the 2016 primary campaign, according to the poll of 442 Granite-Staters.

Vice President Joe Biden got 9 percent support in the test primary match-up. The other announced Democrats in the race, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Gov. Jim Webb, barely register at 1 percent or below.

(snip)
Clinton is still viewed overwhelmingly by voters as the likely Democratic nominee, but the results suggest she faces an unexpectedly difficult fight to prevent an embarrassing opening loss in the first-in-the-nation primary.

[cantbeserious]

1. Why Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go

eom

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

2. But, but, but i heard that Bernie has plateaued!

[Admiral Loinpresser]

4. LOL, good one. n/t

[Trajan]

5. Somebody plateaued alright ..

and it wasn't Bernie ....

[Ed Suspicious]

10. Like Republicans, they project whatever they are feeling about themselves and their candidate

onto their opponents. If they start talking about Bernie having a legitimate shot at a landslide victory, I just might start to worry.

[SoapBox]

7. I posted the same in the other areas...

That's gonna piss some people off!

[LiberalElite]

38. They were holding the graph wrong

oops!

[appalachiablue]

3. K & R. You wouldn't think this given the M$M Bernie Blackout. GO BERNIE!

VP Biden is supposed to make his decision this week while on vacation in S.C. I think he'll be launched to try to boost Clinton support.

[MisterP]

14. though of course a Biden run will look desperate coming--what, a week?--after this very-surprising

headline (in a good way)

[senz]

16. NOW will the MSM take note?

If this keeps up, they're gonna start looking silly.

[Le Taz Hot]

42. Well, it seems the blackout's working for him.

Why screw up a good thing?

[RichVRichV]

6. YES!

This is way sooner than I expected. I hope it holds up to trending.

As Bernie gains and overtakes in more polls more people will pay attention to him and start taking him seriously. It's going to create a domino effect on other polls and low informed voter's views. Just another nail in the "he's not electable" meme's coffin.

[SoapBox]

8. And 4 events in Iowa this weekend!

He'll be spreading the Word of Bern!

[Admiral Loinpresser]

9. One down, 49 to go.

Let's just keep choppin' wood on the "plateau."

[Ed Suspicious]

11. I think we can say 2 down. Vermont has got to be going Bernie.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

12. ROFLMAO. Whoopsie. n/t

[Ed Suspicious]

13. FYI, I couldn't agree more with your sig. And you Username is one of the funniest on the internet.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. At least he's not a General.

[Ed Suspicious]

20. Man of the people. Just a general, run of the mill, loinpresser.

[WillyT]

15. Huge K & R !!! - Thank You !!!

[senz]

17. K&R. She's been running forever, and he just got started!

"This could be the start of something big..."



BUT... this doesn't mean we can relax. Gotta keep the momentum going!

[Qutzupalotl]

19. In fairness, this poll includes Biden.

And we don't know that that will be the case come primary time.

Perhaps the conventional wisdom is true that Biden siphons more support from Clinton than Sanders. Previous polls had Sanders slightly behind.

The trend is good though, and it's early yet.

[merrily]

37. My centrist politics buddy was leaning toward Sanders. His only reservation was that Sanders

might not be able to win the general, though that is one of my reservations about Hillary). We were discussing that when the Biden rumors began.

Then, my pal said he would vote for Biden if Biden runs because Biden was the only one who was right about Iraq in 2008. (My response: The critical time to be right about Iraq was when Congress authorized the invasion. Biden and Hillary were both wrong and Sanders was right. My pal said nothing in response.)

It's only one person, but it's 100% of my personal experience with the issue. So, I would not be so sure that Biden would draw votes only from Hillary, though I am 100% sure her campaign and the media will spin it that way.

BTW, am I the only one who has noticed that the "conventional wisdom" about politics, like everything else about politics, skews right? Carter loses--he lost because of the primary, so let's do away with primaries, is one example. However, if you pick apart the facts, even a little, the conventional wisdom turns out to be not so much wisdom as total bullshit cynically spun into whole cloth.

[Ed Suspicious]

21. Not to be that guy, but it looks like some in AA group are mocking the lead in this state.

New Hampshire? Not good enough, Bernie!

I hate that I am blocked, undeservedly so, from that group. (I feel I said nothing that should have deserved a block from the Hillary Supporter's summer home. Now I'm bitter.)

[senz]

24. Like they think HE'S their enemy??

Those folks are being USED.

[Ed Suspicious]

25. It's weirder than that. It's Bernie's supporters are mean. Bernie has no control over them.

I just can't support Bernie. It's some sort of weird permutation of that.

[senz]

26. See, that's just gamey. Childish.

May be best to ignore such behavior until it passes.

I can't believe all or even most DU AAs would do that. Probably a vocal, histrionic minority.

[Ed Suspicious]

28. I agree, but it's coming from group hosts.

[senz]

29. Really sorry to hear that.

Sad development. I still think it'll pass. Surely they have better things to do.

[SandersDem]

22. Prepare for the Panic Button

Several weeks ago, I recall an article about a cryptic tweet to Mrs. Clinton.

"Things in the Mirror are Closer than they May Appear" Now this could be a complete myth, or misreporting, but now as Sanders pulls ahead....

Prepare for this:

An impending reoorganization of staff

True Believers beginning to express bitterness, then angst, and then anger.....then....acceptance.

The MSM focusing more on the Clinton "campaign collapse" than on the effectiveness of the Sanders message.

A candidate who knows how to graciously express admiration for those essentially on the same side of the aisle, who points out that certain types of questions aimed at his opponent are sexist in nature. A candidate who embraces the issues of every constituency, regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation or status. A condidate who will point out differences on the issues, but who will not attack his oppoenent. A pretty GD refreshing change!

Now, this all falls into "this is pretty awesome", but its only one State. When Arizona goes for Bernie, now that will be something.

[rocktivity]

23. It's not that big a whoop -- New England IS in the man's political back yard.

Last edited Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:42 AM - Edit history (1)

If the numbers were to get tighter in Iowa, however, THAT would be front page news!


rocktivity

[Ed Suspicious]

27. ... (formating didn't stick, but you should be able to read the numbers)

IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE
MONTH CLINTON SANDERS CLINTON SANDERS
July 55% 26% 45% 35%
June 51 29 47 30
May 57 16 62 18
April 59 9 51 13


Wait a minute. This is from the gospel according to Nate (Silver), and is seemingly accepted by the Hillionaires as good data, but the trend is pretty strong showing Bernie's growth in both states (insofar as you can call 4 data points as capable of inferring a trend).

[senz]

31. Yep. They can knock it all they want but the trend is clear.

So much for "inevitability."

[PoliticAverse]

34. Silver did say Sanders might win New Hampshire and Iowa, see...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251432692

[merrily]

36. I don't vote for President based on place of residence and I don't believe anyone does.

His own state, Vermont? Probably. They couldn't vote for Sanders enough even before he started running for President, though. He would win the Democratic nomination for Senate, even though he didn't run for Senate as a Democrat. For Vermont, it's about Sanders as a politician, not his address. However, a "favorite son" is different from a neighbor. I can be relatively comfortable that a President from Massachusetts is not going to crap on Massachusetts.

But neighboring states voting for him because of geography, proximity on a map? Doubt it. I'm in Boston and before I got very interested in politics, I'd never heard of him.

The media will probably rationalize it that way. Gore and McGovern are proof that geography doesn't drive results--and I think the South may have more of a regional mentality than the northeast. I've lived in the Northeast all my life and have almost zero regional pride. (I'm kinda proud it's blue, or I probably would say zero.)

[LiberalElite]

40. Even so, in NH in that back yard, he started out very low eom

[vadermike]

30. Wow

Honestly I think this could be a bate betw the two populists in this race Bernie vs trump. I'm not kidding. They said Reagan couldn't get elected. Think again .. I watched Trimps press conference and he is slick. People will buy his Schtick. Hell he has the liberal position on trade !! Disregard him at yiur own risk

[senz]

32. Don't insult Bernie. No comparison between the two.

How'd you like a debate among Dems?

[vadermike]

33. Debate

I think we need a lot if dem debates and quickly. There is a lot if GOP debates We should have a lot too. To get our ideas out. Hillary Bernie etc. I will vote for the dem nominee. Beware all of the GOP this cycle. All of them. Including trump. Hell they have polls in Iowa showing Hillary losing to 4 of them and even Trump is only behind her by 3. That should scare the crap out of us. Even worse ben Carson is even leading her. Even way worse!!!

[merrily]

35. 7 points. NH primary in January. I just figured out what I want for Christmas. Thanks, cal04!

[LiberalElite]

39. A similar post is in LBN and I strongly suggest we keep it kicked! nt

[HereSince1628]

41. Noth'n succeeds like success, this will probably leave a mark

in other polls as well.

The future may be erupting in polling bumps as the nation comes to grip with numbers associated Sanders west coast tour.

[questionseverything]

43. 44 plus 9= 53

that is the true anti hillary vote