Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumDes Moines Register: Likely caucusgoers in Iowa say Joe Biden is most likely to beat Trump
I posted yesterday about the Register's Iowa poll showing Pete Buttigieg with 25% support, and Warren, Biden and Sanders in a three-way tie for second place.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287348115
But there was another finding from that poll that deserves a lot of attention, and since the Register gave it a separate article, it deserves a separate OP here.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/iowa-poll-joe-biden-support-drops-but-caucusgoers-say-hes-most-likely-to-beat-trump/4197394002/
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg jumps into the lead for the first time, with 25% of respondents naming him as their first choice. U.S. Sen Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts sits in second place with 16% support, while Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont tie at 15%. No other candidate reaches double digits.
The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 8-13 by Selzer & Co. and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Biden leads the field on the question of whether poll respondents believe a candidate will beat Trump. Fifty-two percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they are almost certain or fairly confident that Biden will beat Trump, compared to 43% who say they are not very confident he can win or are almost certain that he will lose. Hes the only candidate for whom a majority of respondents are confident hell beat Trump.
Bidens supporters are even more confident in him: 57% of respondents who back the former vice president say they're almost certain he will beat Trump in the general election. Thats more than the 48% of Sanders supporters, 35% of Warren supporters and 27% of Buttigieg supporters who say the same thing about their own candidate.
-snip-
Emphasis added.
IMO this question of electability will shift all the actual primary and caucus polls toward Biden, when people finally vote for a nominee next year.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,823 posts)Whats wrong with these people??!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,124 posts)encourage that.
"Vote with your heart, not with your head, in the primary."
How many times have we heard that? Especially from those in the media who prefer other candidates to Biden.
But if you do that, and the candidate you're infatuated with CAN'T beat Trump, then you've effectively thrown your vote away, and possibly helped Trump win re-election by helping a weaker GE candidate get the Democratic nomination.
I'd guess, though, that a lot of primary voters who are really fond of a candidate who probably can't win in the GE will think more pragmatically when they finally cast their vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,237 posts)on who the likely voter is in the General Election. Many are just focusing on who they like.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)I didn't think Hillary Clinton was our best chance to win either the last primary when people were telling us Clinton was our only hope.
All this "strategy" is going to cost us by nominating the weaker candidate in Biden. He's being hammered all over social media over "gateway drug" you can't win a general election with comments like that especially when the media won't be so kind when the general election is here.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
boomer_wv
(673 posts)isn't the electorate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Anyone that ever used it is well aware of the gateway drug myth. In a general election there are a lot of low information apolitical people that like cannabis.
Yes on legalization out performed Clinton in Arizona & Nevada.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Does marijuana legalization rank in order of voter issues this year?
It's not what people are voting on.
Who can beat trump
Healthcare
Those are the issues.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Legalization outperformed Hillary Clinton in swing states such as Arizona & Nevada.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
boomer_wv
(673 posts)No evidence to suggest it would have changed anything.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Having Legalization on the ballot helped Democrats win. I'm trying to think of swing states here that support legalization. It narrowly failed in Arizona but yes for legalization still got more votes than Hillary Clinton.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,548 posts)I always think that when I see IA or NH voters talking about all the candidates they personally meet and how important it is they have that opportunity.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
evertonfc
(1,713 posts)Congrats to Mayor Pete but Iowa isn't the face of the party. It's Demographics just do represent our electorate. I fully expect Pete to win there but have zero chance at our nomination. Biden can beat Trump ( quite handily I think) and will beat Trump. Our democracy is at stake and I'm not taking any chances.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,237 posts)why don't you prefer Biden here?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)comes time to actually vote, if they believe Candidate Y has the best chance of winning a general election, chances are, they will end up voting for Candidate Y. These Iowa and NH polls, do not concern me at all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PhoenixDem
(581 posts)as clear as water is wet, ice is cold and salt is salty.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,124 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Valley Below
(1,701 posts)Joe Biden all the way!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(298,077 posts)Mahalo, hpd!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,257 posts)screw this up.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
boomer_wv
(673 posts)People are going to vote for the person they think can win.
It's going to be Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,825 posts)IMHO.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden