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In reply to the discussion: Payroll employment rises by 223,000 in June; unemployment rate declines to 5.3% [View all]progree
(10,976 posts)41. Here's a way to get access to the Barron's article (and thanks for my Saturday evening entertainment
Last edited Sat Jul 25, 2015, 11:03 PM - Edit history (3)
The {1} in your email and added to your OP above did not work, it only showed me 3 paragraphs and demanded I subscribe to Barron to see more.
Rather than subscribing, I Googled the first sentence of the excerpt "The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention" and the first one to show up was {2} which morphed into {3} which looks the same as {1}.
{1} http://online.barrons.com/articles/refresher-course-inside-the-jobless-numbers-1437195186
{2} https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjAAahUKEwiAmZGH0_fGAhUKK4gKHXftAL4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.barrons.com%2Farticles%2Frefresher-course-inside-the-jobless-numbers-1437195186&ei=Wji0VYCEJIrWoAT32oPwCw&usg=AFQjCNHJ9-2WzlK572DqvdFsFfDdpfe2IQ
{3} http://online.barrons.com/articles/refresher-course-inside-the-jobless-numbers-1437195186
Refresher Course: Inside the Jobless Numbers
Are we undercounting the unemployment numbersor overcounting? How the BLS gathers and calculates the numbers, and why it matters.
By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015
The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.
Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But thats just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.
To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of labor underutilization.
In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.
<snip>
Are we undercounting the unemployment numbersor overcounting? How the BLS gathers and calculates the numbers, and why it matters.
By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015
The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.
Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But thats just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.
To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of labor underutilization.
In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.
<snip>
[font color = red]Edited to Add: [/font] Anyway, it is interesting. For those who can't gain access to the article, my take on it is that it is kind of written from a right-wing perspective that the BLS uses lenient measures of unemployment in both the official unemployment rate (U-3) and what they term the "hidden" unemployment rates (U-4 thru U-6) by counting people as unemployed who aren't looking very hard for work.
Which may be true, but doesn't really answer the questions that are bugging economists and policy makers, e.g. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, about why the job market feels so weak (and virtually no upward pressure on wages) when the official unemployment rate is quite modest (5.3%). As compared to the past when an unemployment rate of 5.3% was accompanied by substantial wage pressures (relative to general inflation).
There is a pointer in the article, titled "Work is for Squares" that blames much of the fall in the labor force participation of prime-age males (ages 25-54) to Social Security disability. (Likewise women by almost as much if you begin from say 1990, according to the article).
[font color = red]Edited to Add: [/font] And it argues that there will be a big drop in work incentives due to the Affordable Care Act, resulting in more labor force participation decline.
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Payroll employment rises by 223,000 in June; unemployment rate declines to 5.3% [View all]
mahatmakanejeeves
Jul 2015
OP
They won't. They will change the subject to something like religious freedom, etc.
yellowcanine
Jul 2015
#5
Same as doomers here surely will; by "forgetting" that the LFPR is mostly driven by aging boomers
whatthehey
Jul 2015
#6
And U4 is 5.8, meaning one half of one percent of the workforce is discouraged
Recursion
Jul 2015
#8
Doesn't matter. If you would accept a job but aren't looking, you're "discouraged" (U4)
Recursion
Jul 2015
#23
maybe that is why joe scarborough is hiding out just now...waiting for the good news to blow over...
CTyankee
Jul 2015
#9
See post #12. Sky is not falling, it is much brighter and clearer. Remember the economy in 2009? Some do.
Fred Sanders
Jul 2015
#26
The last month, last 12 months, and since Feb. 2010 - On edit: discussion added
progree
Jul 2015
#15
A record 93,626,000 Americans 16 or older did not participate in the labor force.
candelista
Jul 2015
#16
Some folks just do not make the pay grade in understanding demographics. 5.3% don't lie.
Fred Sanders
Jul 2015
#27
June jobless rates down in 21 states, up in 12; payroll jobs up in 31 states, down in 17
mahatmakanejeeves
Jul 2015
#40
Here's a way to get access to the Barron's article (and thanks for my Saturday evening entertainment
progree
Jul 2015
#41
Ahh, the cherry-picked bad statistics of the month from the ultra-high-volatility Household Survey
progree
Jul 2015
#44
Uhh, those are BLS statistics (the same as your articles cite), not "White House" statistics
progree
Jul 2015
#49
Brookings Institute: Unemployment projected to drop to 5.2% in July and reach 4.5% by December
mahatmakanejeeves
Jul 2015
#51