Guardian: Are we going to war with Iran?

[sabra]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1594977,00.html?gusrc=rss

Are we going to war with Iran?

Dan Plesch evaluates the evidence pointing towards a new conflict in the Middle East

The Sunday Telegraph warned last weekend that the UN had a last chance to avert war with Iran and, at a meeting in London last week, the US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, expressed his regret that any failure by the UN security council to deal with Iran would damage the security council's relevance, implying that the US would solve the problem on its own.

Only days before, the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, had dismissed military action as "inconceivable" while both the American president and his secretary of state had insisted war talk was not on the agenda. The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have found that Iran has not, so far, broken its commitments under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, although it has concealed activities before.

It appears that the UK and US have decided to raise the stakes in the confrontation with Iran. The two countries persuaded the IAEA board - including India - to overrule its inspectors, declare Iran in breach of the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and say that Iran's activities could be examined by the UN security council. Critics of this political process point to the fact that India itself has developed nuclear weapons and refused to join the NPT, but has still voted that Iran is acting illegitimately. On the Iranian side there is also much belligerent talk and pop music now proudly speaks of the nuclear contribution to Iranian security.

The timing of the recent allegations about Iranian intervention in Iraq also appears to be significant. Ever since the US refused to control Iraq's borders in April 2003, Iranian backed militia have dominated the south and, with under 10,000 soldiers amongst a population of millions, the British army had little option but to go along. No fuss was made until now. As for the bombings of British soldiers, some sources familiar with the US army engineers report that these supposedly sophisticated devices have been manufactured inside Iraq for many months and do not need to be imported.

[Just Me]

1. I hope that butthead, Bolton, is indicted along with the rest of them!

Who does he think he is shoving "irrevelence" on anyone who fails to think as he does? :grr: Ass!

[LynnTheDem]

2. The entire number of nations involved in that one would be...one.

Not even the UK would go along with us. And let's see; Iran's standing army is far larger than ours, what army we do have is Iraqmired. We'd lose every US ship in the Gulf to Iran's sunburn missiles. We're getting our asses kicked by Iraqi rebels; Iran has 3 times the population of Iraq, plus an airforce, an army, and no draconian starvation sanctions for the past decade.

Pakistanis would overthrow Mushie, which they're trying to do anyways, and if/when that happens, we're in a world of hurt. China would back Iran.

A war of aggression on Iran by the USA would clearly tell the world the time for appeasement towards the USA is over. Although with Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, the world could simply sit and wait for the entire US military to be wiped out.

"Interesting times", as the curse goes.

[stevietheman]

13. Agreed. Iran would be like Poland in 1939. n/t

n/t

[McKenzie]

3. I was reading that a few minutes ago...

I am deeply suspicious about the timing. As with the Saddam trial it is almost certainly just another diversion in a time of deep crisis for Bush Co® (BLiar Co® is a wholly owned subsidiary)

This is starting to get very worrying. Desperate times, high stakes, desperate measures. Don't look over there...look over HERE...OMG...WMD...patriotism to the fore everyone.

[meganmonkey]

4. Deja vu all over again...

:(

And we've been setting this one up nicely:

"Ever since the US refused to control Iraq's borders in April 2003..."

Will there come a time when the rest of the world does something to try to stop the US? That is the big question to me. Obviously our gov't isn't listening to the people, we are trying damn hard to make our voices heard and our opposition to this war policy known, to no avail.

What next?
:scared:

[Kailassa]

7. Would you stop a rabid dog from running into a trap?

Will there come a time when the rest of the world does something to try to stop the US?

No, there won't, because there is no need. If the U.S. invades Iran, individuals all around the world will be either laughing or crying, depending on how much they care for people such as yourselves. But no, nothing will be done.

The government will be left to bankrupt the country, then the remains will be divied up by foreign countries who are still full of hatred over America's thefts from them and the American funded coups that have killed so many governments in the past for the crime of putting the interests of their own people over the interests of American corporations.

[meganmonkey]

9. But it isn't about me, or people like me

depending on how much they care for people such as yourselves

It's about the 100,000+ civilians who have been killed in Iraq already, and the civilians that would undoubtably get killed in Iran, or get their homes, factories, water treatment facilities, and electric plants blown up.

It's about the fact that we are creating terrorists who may be a threat to all 'first world' countries.

I am certainly not implying that it is the responsibility of other nations to stop the US gov't and its dangerous foreign policy, but I just feel like there has to be a point where the rest of the world says 'ENOUGH' to the US's irrational, irresponsible and murderous behavior for their own best interest...

:shrug:

[Kailassa]

10. How?

How?
Trade sanctions? They don't affect the people who make the decisions, they only hurt the poor.
Declare war on America? That won't work to well to stop the killing.
Unite in the U.N. to tell America it mustn't be naughty any more? Hahaha.
Nuke a few American cities? No gain in that for anyone, you're safe there.

Sorry, Meganmonkey, but the ball is in your court. If enough people such as yourself start collecting people around them into groups and demonstrating in their own towns, you will get the message to more and more people. When you have enough people, strikes and civil disobediance campaigns can work. It's a big job, but it has to start somewhere. Somewhere within America, not outside it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5089028&mesg_id=5089028

[meganmonkey]

11. Believe, I am doing all those things

For example, I got arrested last month in front of the White House for civil disobedience along with almost 400 other people - in fact I used what little vacation time I have at work to do so, and I am participating in a local group in a small town who demonstrates weekly and will be having a special anti-war event soon to honor the 2000 dead US troops...Not to mention calling and writing my Senators (one of whom is Carl Levin, thank goodness) and my Congressman almost weekly.

I understand that part of it - I am doing everything I can personally do at this point in my life (because unfortunately I can't retire at 31 and become a full-time activist, and believe me I would if I could).

NO ONE IS LISTENING TO US. I don't know what else to do. I don't know how to make other people participate. I can't force them to :shrug:

I am personally at a loss.

It feels hopeless, and there is a part of me that thinks everything I do is a waste of my time and resources, because they will not listen. I am not violent and I refuse to go that route. I would rather die, or leave the country.

This does not mean I will stop doing what I am doing, I am picking up the pace because there seems to be no choice, and if I don't have faith that my actions will help I will lose my shit completely. But part of me knows I am just deluding myself.

What would you do? What else can I do?

:cry:

[Kailassa]

15. It's like spreading a rumour.

When someone gossips, they will generally tell 2 people, who will each tell 2 more, who will each tell more.

What you are doing will grow in that way. You can't do it all by yourself, it takes people all over the country talking to others, staging lots of small, joyful demonstrations.

I would recommend non-serious events. Rallies where most of the time is spent dancing and singing. Fetes and bazaars with a happy, but gently anti-* theme. Remember that young people need entertainment, look at ways to create it.

There are other needs in the community to fill too, such as tutoring groups, to help kids having trouble at school. Anything that deals with people will help get the word across.

So really, the first thing you need to do is talk around to find like-minded people to work with you. A group of five is the perfect size to get something started, when it grows to 10, split. A small group can organise enough to keep the people in it busy, and big events can be organised by a bunch of groups working together. There is nothing like a cell structure to allow an idea to spread fast.

To sum up, find others, spread the load, have fun.

:party: :toast: :party: :toast: :party: :toast: :party: :toast: :party:

[oblivious]

5. Bush already got laughed out of town for that relevance line.

"John Bolton, expressed his regret that any failure by the UN security council to deal with Iran would damage the security council's relevance."

What he means is it would damage the SC's relevance in the eyes of the Bush gang. But he forgot to mention that it would strengthen the SC in the eyes of all other countries of the world and surely most Americans.

[Deja Q]

6. And expect nukes to be used.

[leveymg]

8. High stakes bluff. We don't have the cards. They know it.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff aren't going along with this.

Not, as has been stated above, because we would lose militarily in an unlimited war with Iran and it's allies -- we always hold the strategic trump card -- but, because we would surely lose more than we might gain in any lesser war.

This is a last gasp attempt to bluff ourselves out of being ejected from the game in the Middle East. We stay in any longer, and we're going to lose the house. We already handed over the title to the SUV.

[hang a left]

12. This should be in LBN!

Maybe you could post it there too?

[SheilaT]

14. I've been expecting

an Iran invasion for some time now. I just don't have a good enough handle on things to have a sense of just when it could come off. My best guess is to see it happen in the run-up to the mid-term elections. The mainstream media in this country would go along with whatever lies the Bush administration comes up with to justify an invasion of Iran, and most Americans don't get news from any other source, and so once again millions of anti-war protesters here and abroad would be just a "focus group", easily ignored.

Keep in mind that this country spends more than the entire rest of the world combined on military.

The other thing to remember is that lots of otherwise good folks honestly think that the President, whoever he is, should be supported in whatever he does, because he is, after all, the President. And those who sill stand behind the President are even more numerous when a crisis is perceived.

[texpatriot2004]

16. I hope not. nm